Zach Hyman to Edmonton Oilers for $40 million sounding like a done deal today
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Author of the article:
David Staples • Edmonton Journal 
Edmonton Oilers goaltender Mike Smith (41) and Caleb Jones (82) battle Toronto Maple Leafs’ Zach Hyman (11) during second period NHL action at Rogers Place in Edmonton, on Monday, March 1, 2021. Photo by Ian Kucerak /Postmedia Article content As well as speculation on Edmonton being a candidate for d-man Dougie Hamilton
Multiple sources are now reporting on Zach Hyman signing with the Edmonton Oilers as if it were a done deal.
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Sportset’s Elliotte Friedman said early this morning on Twitter: “And then there’s Zach Hyman. If TOR desires a draft pick, could be done today at 8 years. If not, 7 years when free agency opens. Either way, should come in around $40M.”
And Hockey Night in Canada insider Chris Johnston: “Further to Friedge’s report: Word is that an eight-year contract for Hyman with the #oilers would come in a shade under the $5.125M AAV on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ recent deal. A seven-year contract for Hyman would be closer to $5.5M AAV.”
The Toronto Star’s Kevin McGran: “In addition to Edmonton, where a deal seems imminent (7x$5.5M or 8x$5.125M), the Panthers — who drafted Hyman — Rangers and the Bruins made credible offers … Another team in rebuild-mode offered more, 6x$7M) … Hyman’s preference: 1. Stay in Toronto … 2. Play for a contender.”
TSN’s Darren Dreger reports: “A lot of talk about what the Oilers are going to pay Hyman in term and $. I believe 7 years is the target and could climb as high as $5.5 aav. We will see. However, as of this second there has been no discussion with Toronto on compensation.”
St. Louis hockey insider Andy Strickland: “Can confirm the Edmonton Oilers have both 7 and 8 year contracts agreed to with Zach Hyman. EDM and TOR are working to execute a sign & trade which will pay Hyman 8 yrs. at around $5M. Salary comes in higher in middle of contract and includes some no move protection. The Leafs did offer Zach Hyman an 8 year extension to remain in Toronto but ultimately the deal wasn’t comparable to what he has agreed to with Edmonton.”
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And the Journal’s Jim Matheson: “I like Zach Hyman, a lot. If Leafs sign him to an eight-year deal at average cap hit of $5 mil and deal him to Oilers, he would fill much needed top 6 LW hole. He can play with stars in support role and dogged work in and around net would be huge add.”
And the Journal’s Terry Jones: “Hyman to Edmonton for Nugent-Hopkins money would make Oilers top six complete. Both McDavid and Draisaitl would have a Nuge. When the Dynamic Duo is together Nuge goes to centre with Hyman.”
And Detroit Winged Wheel podcast host Brad Krysko: “Hyman is a legitimately good player but I give this contract 3-4 years *at best* to look like a nightmare.”
And Toronto Hockey Youtube Steve “Dangle” Glynn: “Oilers fans – Zach Hyman is a gem. Truly. The Leafs organization has adored him and held him up as a standard since he was in the AHL. He’s a smart, no-quit warrior, a penalty-killer, capable net front guy, and has scored at a 33 and 28-goal pace in each of the past two seasons.”
And in a previous post on this trade rumour, the Cult of Hockey’s Bruce McCurdy: “Can’t lie, the prospect of an eighth year for Zack Hyman — who will be 36 by 2028-29 — leaves me cold… Hyman has proven himself a fine complementary player to skilled linemates and would fill a major hole in Edmonton’s top six, most likely on Connor McDavid‘s flank. But fill it for six, seven, even eight years as hinted by the cited tweets? That would be a major gamble to say the least, one the Oilers have made (and lost) before with power forwards on the cusp of their 30s.”
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And Mark Spector of Sportsnet: “If you believe the Oilers need to be all in while Connor McDavid is in his prime, then you can’t complain about the contract the Oilers are set to offer Zach Hyman. No matter how ugly it looks.”
And shot metrics analytics experts Micah Blake McCurdy: “Zach Hyman (very long deal with Edmonton, specifics of which to come) is an extremely strong driver of 5v5 offence, causes a healthy penalty differential, nothing special defensively at 5v5 but decent on the PK.”
And Toronto analytics experts Rachel Doerrie: “If the Leafs do a sign and trade with Hyman, allowing the Oilers to manage their cap better, the ask should be Tyler Benson. Minimum. You’re not out here doing favours for others teams who are signing your top line player without a price.”
On the Dougie Hamilton front, Frank Seravali of Daily Faceoff wondered if the Oilers might be a “sneaky dark horse candidate” to sign the player: “Not only can he produce similar to Barrie on the power play, but he would bring an even-strength dynamic to Edmonton’s blue line that Barrie does not.”
My take
1. My hope is that Hyman will become the Chris Kunitz of the 2020s in Edmonton. Kunitz was a tough, skilled two-way winger who played strong hockey well into his mid-30s on Sidney Crosby’s wing for Pittsburgh. Right now Hyman is an super solid two-way winger, one who might well make the Canadian Olympic team, if Canada and the NHL end up attending the China Olympics.
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But my fear is that Hyman will become the next Ryan Callahan. In June 2014, Callahan signed a six-year deal for $5.8 million with Tampa Bay. He ended up having one good year there, with 54 points in 77 games, but his point totals in the next four years with 28, 4, 18 and 17. Tampa didn’t start winning big in the playoffs until he was off their cap.
2. There’s no doubt that in the short term the Hyman deal solves a major problem for the Oilers.
For years Edmonton has searched for wingers who can blend well with Connor McDavid. Shooter and fellow superstar Leon Draisaitl has succeeded in the role, but the Oilers need him at centre. Patrick Maroon played well with McD as well. But Ryan Nugent-Hopkins struggled at McDavid’s side last year, as have other wingers.
It’s no easy thing to complement McDavid, mainly because he quite rightly dominates the puck when he’s on the ice. Draisaitl fits because he’s got the immense skill and impressive confidence to make plays with McDavid and also a wicked shot to pound McD’s passes in the net, a skill that RNH lacked.
Hyman will be more in the Maroon mold, winning battles in the corner and in front of the net and playing solid defence.
Of course, Maroon has aged well in the NHL and might well have stuck in Edmonton if the Oilers hadn’t invested so heavily in Milan Lucic.
2. Power forwards — unless they’re superstars — are generally iffy bets as they enter their 30s. The wear-and-tear of that physical style of play gets the best of most of them, and sooner than later. Every time the Oilers are in hot pursuit of such a player, I do the same thing, go over other similar signings and see how that player did over the life of his big money, long-term deal.
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At the top end, you’ll find any number of power forwards in their 30s who did very well on those later career deals, but most of those players were superstars, players like Jarome Iginla, Jaromir Jagr, Brad Marchand, Marian Hossa, Shane Doan and Corey Perry. As solid and productive as Hyman has been his last few years in Toronto, he reminds me more of players like Scott Hartnell and Patric Hornqvist, who were arguably OK on their later career contracts, but also of Ryan Callahan, James Neal, Kyle Okposo, Milan Lucic, Ryan Malone, David Clarkson, Nathan Horton and Ryane Clowe, who turned out to be bad signings. That is a long list of bad signings for this class of player. Too long.
3. Any one player can defy the odds, as Kunitz did. Hockey actuarial analysis and comparables give us some sense of how similar players have done, but they don’t spell out doom for any particular player. My concern is that with the RNH and Hyman signings, the Oilers will have made two risky bets on players performing well into their mid-30s.
4. I’d give the Hyman contract about a 20 per cent chance of working out well and the RNH contract about a 50 per cent chance. By “working out well,” I mean the players each having four or five more peak or near peak seasons, then a gradual decline in the second half of the contract, as opposed to falling off a cliff.
5. Will impressive rookie pro Dylan Holloway be blocked for years to come by RNH and Hyman? Maybe. Hyman would most naturally fit on a top line as a left winger. But RNH can also play centre as can Holloway, and the Oil are in desperate need of third-line centre. Holloway or RNH might also be able to play their off-wings.
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