Yordenis Ugas vs. Mario Barrios odds, betting trends, predictions, expert picks for 2023 boxing fight

The undercard of Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo features a pair of welterweights looking to get a piece of 147-pound gold as former titleholder Yordenis Ugas squares off with Mario Barrios for the interim WBC championship. 

With it seeming to be more and more unlikely that undisputed champion Terence Crawford will return to the 147-pound division, the expectation is that the four belts that he currently holds will be vacated. The winner of Ugas and Barrios will likely find themselves elevated to full titleholder, which means there is more at stake than just an interim title. 

MORE: How to bet on combat sports

Ugas (27-5, 12 KOs) represented Cuba in the 2008 Olympics, taking home a Bronze medal in the lightweight division. He made his pro debut in 2010 and had an up-and-down career, going 15-3 before hitting his stride in 2016 with an upset of the previously unbeaten Jamal James. Although Ugas fell short in his first title attempt with a narrow split decision loss to Shawn Porter for the WBC welterweight title, he finally acquired a world championship when he stunned the legendary Manny Pacquiao for the WBA crown in August 2021. 

Ugas put his title on the line against Errol Spence in April 2022 but was stopped and suffered an eye injury that put him on the shelf for over a year. At 37, Ugas will make his return in hopes of getting back on top.

Barrios (27-2, 18 KOs) started his promising career with 26 consecutive victories. His 5-10 frame and 71-inch reach overwhelmed the super lightweight division until he ran into Gervonta Davis, who stopped him in the 11th round in June 2021. Barrios decided that he had outgrown that division and made his welterweight debut last February when he fell short against Keith Thurman. He got back into the win column with a victory over Jovanie Santiago in February but will have to prove his worth by knocking off a seasoned veteran in Ugas. 

Yordenis Ugas vs. Mario Barrios betting odds

Per FanDuel, Ugas is a -430 favorite while Barrios is a +300 underdog. 

Betting trends for Yordenis Ugas vs. Mario Barrios   

Per FanDuel

Yordenis Ugas vs. Mario Barrios prediction, best bets

Yordenis Ugas may be 37 years of age but he has never made it easy for his opponent. Between the mix of his Cuban amateur style with his ability to avoid taking punishment, few fighters outside of Errol Spence Jr. were able to have their way with him. Barrios spent much of his career avoiding the need to face a crafty opponent that resembles Ugas. With a boxer/brawler style, Barrios is going to have to find ways to make the fight ugly and hope that Ugas is on the decline. There are questions surrounding whether Ugas has completely recovered from the fractured orbital bone in the Spence fight, where he was stopped for the first and only time in his career.

Ugas isn’t much of a knockout threat and he doesn’t possess a fraction of the power that Gervonta Davis has so a stoppage inside the distance by Ugas is unlikely. Barrios is strong but more of a volume puncher who wears on his opponents. That may have worked during his tenure as a super lightweight but the welterweight division is full of fighters who are durable and will hit back.

This may not be a thrilling fight unless Ugas is a shot fighter and is unable to use his legs to circle away from Barrios. But even if Ugas is on the wrong side of his career, his boxing IQ is high enough that he should be able to stink out a narrow decision by using his slick style to pick and pop at Barrios throughout the fight.

Taking Ugas straight up at -430 won’t yield much of a return. But taking Ugas by decision at -130 has far more value and the likely scenario.

Sporting News prediction: Ugas via unanimous decision (-130)