Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction: Nestor Cortes has edge on Jose Berrios
Nestor #Nestor
Wednesday’s game was a thriller. Chris Bassitt shoved for the second straight start while Danny Jansen hit a three-run walk-off homer in the 10th inning, so the Jays came out on top 3-0.
While the Blue Jays could even the four-game series with a win, I like the Yankees to bounce back on Thursday.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds
Moneyline: Yankees (+115) vs. Blue Jays (-135)
Spread: Yankees +1.5 (-178) vs. Blue Jays -1.5 (+150)
Total: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction
(7:07 p.m. ET., MLB Network)
New York starting pitcher Nestor Cortes is unlucky.
His 5.53 ERA is fueled by a relatively high .310 BABIP (career .272) and a relatively-low 65% strand rate (career 78%).
As a result, Cortes’ expected ERA is below 4.00. He forces too much weak contact for his numbers to be so high.
The Yankees boast an above-average defense by both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average. So, positive regression is in the cards for Cortes.
Meanwhile, Toronto starting pitcher Jose Berrios continues to be a fade candidate.
His ERA and expected ERA sit in the high-4.00s, and he continues to allow loads of hard contact.
Berrios has a tough matchup on Thursday, as the hard-hitting Bronx Bombers have been surreal since Aaron Judge’s return.
The Yanks have the third-highest wRC+ (128) and second-highest OPS (.829) over the past two weeks, with the defending AL MVP slashing .303/.442/.788 during the stretch (good for a 1.230 OPS).
The Yankees rank among the top-five teams in average Exit Velocity, Hard-Hit Rate and Barrel Rate, which should pose problems for the hard-contact-prone Berrios.
Meanwhile, the Jays are middling.
They boast a league-average offense during May and generally don’t hit better against either the left or right side.
I give a slight bullpen advantage to the Yankees – New York boasts a 4.40 reliever expected FIP over the past two weeks, compared to Toronto’s 4.61 – even if both units were heavily taxed last night.
I think I like New York’s bullpen depth more than Toronto’s, but it’s too close to call.
Either way, at the minimum, I’d make the fair odds on this game a coin flip, so betting the underdog is wise.
On the other hand, the Action Network PRO model projects the Yankees as (-102) ML favorites, so perhaps the wrong team is favored on Thursday.
At (+105) or better, I recommend buying the Yanks in Thursday’s series-clinching game.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays pick
Yankees ML (+115) | Play to (+105, Caesars)
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