Yankees vs Astros Game 1 predictions, odds: Will Verlander and the Astros bounce back?

Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander throws against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022, in Houston. The Associated Press

Pushed to the brink, the New York Yankees slugged their way past the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday. It has earned them a date with the Houston Astros, a team that dominated its season series and is well-rested after not playing since Saturday.

The Yankees will turn to Jameson Taillon, who will need to have a short memory after his struggles in both the ALDS and against this Astros team. Primarily because he will face off with a motivated Justin Verlander, who is ready to right the ship after his rough outing against Seattle.

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The Yankees lineup must try and get up for this matchup against a well-rested and motivated Verlander. In his only start against the Bronx Bombers this season, Verlander dominated them, allowing just one run and four hits over seven innings of work.

That outing added to a large sample size of success against this lineup. The Yankees have had 155 at-bats against Verlander. Thus far, they are hitting just .161 and have a 30.1 percent strikeout rate.

In addition to his dominance over the Yankees, the two-time Cy Young award winner will get to make this start at home. In 15 home starts, Verlander went 10-1 with a 1.64 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and struck out over 31 percent of the batters he faced.

Coming off a tough series, a celebration, and an overnight flight to Houston, the outlook for New York is bleak entering Game 1.

If not for the heroics of Yordan Alvarez in Games 1 and 2, the Astros may have been eliminated. Much like New York’s lineup, Houston’s runs were produced by three men: Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel and Alex Bregman.

While the rest of the lineup may have been held in check during their last series, the Astros have had a few days to reset and will now face a pitcher they’ve had success against.

Taillon’s only start against Houston this season did not go well. The Astros tallied six earned runs on 10 hits. However, that was just the latest addition to a sizable track record of success against Taillon.

The Astros have combined for 75 at-bats against Taillon, and a majority of them have done damage. Overall, they are hitting .320 with a .613 slugging percentage off him. Even though they are due for some regression tonight, their average exit velocity of 91.2 mph and launch angle of 14.8 degrees suggest they’ll continue hit a ton of hard-liners off him.

What’s most notable is that Alvarez, Bregman and Tucker have all homered off him. Also, Jose Altuve has hit .444 off him, and he’s the one guy they need to get going.

The Yankees are in a tough spot here. They just finished a grueling series that taxed their pitching staff, and now, without an off day, they face a well-rested Houston club with its ace on the mound.

The best way to play this is to back Houston to be up halfway through this one.

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