Yankees trade deadline questions | Cody Bellinger, Gleyber Torres, Luis Severino and more

NEW YORK — Two questions have hung over the Yankees for much of this summer.

When will Aaron Judge be back from the injured list?

What will the Yankees do at the trade deadline after their disappointing start to the season?

It seems like we’ll finally have an answer to both of those questions this weekend in Baltimore.

Not only is Judge expected to return from his right big toe injury as early as Friday, but the result of this three-game series with the first-place Orioles could be the deciding factor in how the Yankees approach this year’s deadline.

When the Yankees arrive at Camden Yards on Friday, they’ll be 2 1/2 games out of a Wild Card spot, eight games behind Baltimore in the AL East. That’s unfamiliar territory for a team that usually beats down on the Orioles, using trips to the friendly confines of Oriole Park to pad stats and rack up wins. That’s not the case this year and with the young core that Baltimore has, it won’t be for the foreseeable future.

Simply put, the Yankees need to play well if they want general manager Brian Cashman to attack the deadline in an aggressive manner. With six teams currently jockeying for three Wild Card spots, it’s tougher to justify a win-now move if the Yankees get swept in Baltimore or lose the series.

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Whether Judge is back from the IL or not, seeing a few more embarrassing losses would be a reminder for the front office of this club’s unwavering flaws. They’re still only a few games out of a playoff spot, so selling across the board isn’t on the table, but retooling and making some changes that impact next year’s roster would be more likely in that scenario.

Before going any further, it’s important to run through the financials here as well. The Yankees already have a $295 million payroll, per Cot’s Contracts, the second-highest in baseball behind the Mets. That puts them $2 million over the highest luxury tax threshold. Will owner Hal Steinbrenner give Cashman the green light to plow past that number and add more at the deadline, or is Cashman and his team handcuffed for financial reasons, forced to offload a few players to free up some cash?

Here are some burning questions that the Yankees are working to answer as we speak, planning ahead as they wait anxiously in trade deadline limbo:

Which outfielder will the Yankees target?

Cody Bellinger of the Cubs is the obvious choice. He’s a perfect fit, both between the lines and in his appreciation for what it means to be a Yankee (after his dad, Clay, won two rings in pinstripes). Chicago can’t stop winning, though. They’ve won eight of their last nine and after blowing the Cardinals out on Thursday, they’re back to .500, only four games out of a playoff spot in the National League.

Let’s say the Cubs don’t sell, turning down offers for Bellinger, an outfielder headed for free agency this offseason. Other outfielders like Rockies’ Randal Grichuk, Cardinals’ Dylan Carlson, Mets’ Tommy Pham and Nationals’ Lane Thomas are poised to be available.

What happens with the bullpen?

If the Yankees want to add a bat, and another club is looking for MLB-ready talent in return, they’ll need to consider trading from their bullpen. It’s been such a strength for the Yankees this year — they have the lowest bullpen ERA in MLB at 3.20 — that subtracting one arm might be worth it to address the offense.

Wandy Peralta, for instance, will enter free agency after this season. The Yankees just signed Tommy Kahnle this past winter, and he’s a positive clubhouse presence, but they could shed some cost by moving him. It’s hard to believe the Yankees would move an arm as essential as Clay Holmes or Michael King, but maybe a starter like Clarke Schmidt or Domingo Germán (a free agent in 2025) would push a trade over the finish line.

Knowing that both Jonathan Loáisiga and Nestor Cortes are on the mend, nearly ready to return from the injured list, the Yankees can swiftly plug a hole internally with a pitcher they have a lot of confidence in. It’s a risky proposition, but shouldn’t be off limits if it means making the offense better, which is their most glaring concern.

Who else could the Yankees use in a trade?

Luis Severino is an interesting case as a rental and a starter that in all likelihood won’t re-sign with the team this winter. With the way he’s pitched this year, Severino seems destined to sign a one-year prove-it deal with another team and try to resurrect his value.

Severino would be another way to slice off a chunk of the payroll if the Yankees can find another team that’s desperate for an experienced and high-upside arm. Severino’s last two starts have certainly pointed him in the right direction after a dreadful beginning to his campaign once he came off the 60-day injured list. He’ll face the Orioles on Sunday Night Baseball later this weekend with the whole league watching.

Harrison Bader is a rental as well, but trading him would leave the Yankees without a starting center fielder. The defense in the Yankees’ outfield has been bad enough this year. Losing Bader seems like a mistake, even if there’s a chance that he’ll depart in free agency this offseason.

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Gleyber Torres is another name to watch, a player the Yankees have tried to move for a few years. This time last year, Torres was nearly shipped to Miami in a deal for Marlins starter Pablo López. López was later traded to the Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez. Dealing Torres now would open the door for Oswald Peraza to play at second base regularly, mixed in more often in the infield rotation with DJ LeMahieu and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who is hitting well and plays a strong third base.

That said, Torres has been one of the Yankees’ best hitters all summer, a consistent source of offense while other veterans have flopped. A trade could still be on the horizon for Torres, who will be a free agent after next season, but Peraza isn’t exactly playing his way to a starting role right now. The prospect is hitting .173 with a .520 OPS in 19 games with the Yankees this year.

By trading a Severino or a Torres, it makes a player like Bellinger more affordable with luxury tax constraints. If you don’t believe that there are financial restrictions for the Yankees here, consider the fact that the Yankees could’ve signed Bellinger, Andrew Benintendi or a different left-handed outfielder this winter. They chose not to, investing in Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Carlos Rodón instead while betting on a mix of Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera … a disaster.

After left field, what else do the Yankees need?

As Cashman always says, you can never have too much pitching. Even with Cortes coming back, would the Yankees be willing to part with more prospects if it meant they could snag another starter, bolstering that staff for the stretch run? Same goes for the bullpen, a unit that’s regressed from their otherworldly start to the season.

Top names are already coming off the board. On Wednesday, the White Sox sent right-hander Lucas Giolito to the Angels. Late Thursday night, the Marlins acquired ex-Yankees reliever David Robertson from the Mets.

On offense, other than a corner outfielder, the Yankees could look at a third baseman and catcher. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees are interested in Nationals’ third baseman Jeimer Candelario, a left-handed hitter that’s batting .256 with an .819 OPS this year.

With Jose Trevino out for the rest of the year after season-ending wrist surgery, the Yankees might not be comfortable with a mix of Kyle Higashioka and Ben Rortvedt behind the plate the rest of the way. Rockies’ Elías Díaz has been linked to the Yankees while Mets’ Omar Narváez could also be a fit as a left-handed bat.

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Max Goodman may be reached at mgoodman@njadvancemedia.com.