Yankees-Red Sox predictions: Gerrit Cole on enough of a roll?

New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) reacts after giving up runs against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fifth inning of a baseball game Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Noah K. Murray) The Associated Press

The New York Yankees travel to Boston for a two-game set against the Red Sox. Unfortunately, the series won’t have the same cachet, with Boston currently in last place in the division and 16 games out of first place.

Gerrit Cole will get the start for the visitors, while the Red Sox will counter with Nick Pivetta. For much of the season, I’ve had success fading Cole in multiple spots.

However, the Yankees have shown some fight lately, winning six of their past eight games. Moreover, the Yankees scored 10 runs in each of their past two games.

I’ll share why that number is significant, particularly with Cole on the mound on Tuesday.

Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB odds

Odds provided by Caesars

Moneyline: NYY (-160) vs. BOS (+135)

Spread: NYY -1.5 (+100) vs. BOS +1.5 (-120)

Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Yankees vs. Red Sox probable pitchers

Gerrit Cole (11-7, 3.20 ERA) vs. Nick Pivetta (9-11, 4.29 ERA)

Although Cole hasn’t looked all that impressive against the Red Sox this season, the Yankees offense keeps finding ways to bail him out of bad starts. In 17 innings against Boston, Cole allowed 10 earned runs for a 5.29 ERA. Yet, the Yankees still managed to pick up victories in all three games.

But if there’s ever a time to jump on the Cole bandwagon, you likely won’t have a better opportunity than this spot. The Yankees right-hander enters this game off a 14-strikeout performance in his last outing against the Twins. In his past three outings, Cole racked up a total of 29 strikeouts. And if we look at the advanced numbers, his 3.17 FIP still offers some value for the remainder of the season.

In contrast, Pivetta’s FIP is almost a full run higher at 4.13. With an 0-4 start to his campaign, Pivetta’s ERA swelled to 7.84. He did turn things around by winning five straight starts to improve to 5-4 and a 3.50 ERA. However, it’s been mixed results since then, as Pivetta is now two games under .500 at 9-11 this season.

He’s struggled throughout his career in his five starts against the Yankees. Through 20 1/3 innings, he’s allowed 24 earned runs, resulting in a whopping 10.62 ERA. New York’s advanced numbers are impressive against the right-hander, given their .624 xSLG, .425 wOBA, and an average launch angle of 15.7 degrees.

While Boston might try to play spoiler here, I don’t think Pivetta gives them enough quality on the mound to pull off the upset. The Yankees have regained their mojo, and those 10 runs in their last game are a good omen for the Yankees when it’s Cole’s turn in the rotation.

According to our Action Labs database, the Yankees are a perfect 9-0 with Cole in this spot. My model makes New York as high as a -188 favorite, so I see significant value in backing New York with the current odds available at -160.

Yankees vs. Red Sox pick

Yankees ML (-160)

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