William Nylander’s ceiling and a questionable pair on defence: Monday Morning Leafs Report

Before every season, I often wonder: Have the Toronto Maple Leafs seen the best of William Nylander? In other words, has he reached his ceiling in the NHL yet?

And every season so far, the answer turns out to be no — including last season when he put up career highs of 40 goals and 87 points while averaging a career-best 18.5 minutes per game.

The earliest signs this fall suggest Nylander may still be climbing. He was the Leafs’ second-best player (after you know who) in the first two games, scoring three goals and setting up two more directly himself.

His two goals in a win over the Minnesota Wild on Saturday were top-notch — “world class” in the words of his teammates and coach. The first was a power move to the net, a combination of all the ingredients — the skill, the speed, and the often overlooked size and strength — that make him special. (That’s perennial Selke Trophy candidate Joel Eriksson Ek trying, and failing, to chase Nylander down.)

The second saw Nylander darting into the offensive zone and beating Filip Gustavsson easily.

“Will is, I think, one of the best players in the world,” Morgan Rielly said, “especially carrying the puck in the neutral zone, carrying the puck on the perimeter of the offensive zone. He has these skills that are almost unmatched in my opinion and I think that’s lots of people’s opinions.”

Nylander had nine shot attempts in the Leafs opener against Montreal and another 10 attempts over the weekend against Minnesota.

Those 19 shot attempts lead the Leafs.

John Klingberg’s addition to the team’s No. 1 power-play unit looks like it might just unlock even more for Nylander there. A right shot, Klingberg can better tee up Nylander for one-timers on the left flank, one of which hit last week against Montreal.

It’s the command that’s really popping early on.

Nylander is playing with force, with power, with control, with determination. He hasn’t tiptoed into games. He’s been fully engaged from the start.

It’s only two games. The question is whether, or to what degree, he can keep this up. Consistency is always the thing for Nylander. He’s been especially focused in recent years on keeping the dips in his game to a minimum — to two games instead of four or five. A week, not two or three.

Nylander put up a point in 54 of his 82 games last season.

SeasonGPGP w/ point% w/ point

2021-22

81

54

67%

2022-23

82

54

66%

2019-20

68

44

65%

2016-17

81

49

60%

2020-21

51

29

57%

2017-18

82

46

56%

2018-19

54

18

33%

Last season, Nylander got off to a so-so start and so-so finish.

Keep this level of play up, in a contract year no less, and Nylander should challenge for 50 goals and maybe even 100 points.

In other words, the ceiling will rise even a little higher.

Points

1. Matthew Knies raved about Auston Matthews’ leadership in our recent conversation. “He’s always the one to step up and talk,” Knies said. “He opens his doors to guys like me. It’s more than what you see on the ice. Behind the scenes, I think he just takes care of the guys in there. We spend a lot of time around (the rink), so it’s nice to have someone like that look after me and look after the younger players. I think that’s why you can see how much he cares to win and how much he wants this team to succeed. … It goes a long way for a kid like me. Especially when I was coming here for the first time, I was telling him that I was gonna be in a hotel and he opened his doors right away. Just little things like that. It’s pretty special to have a guy of his stature do that.”

2. One pair that spent too much time defending in the first two games: Jake McCabe and Klingberg. The other groups, including Rielly and TJ Brodie, the twosome playing the toughest minutes, have been OK (at five-on-five):

PairsGoalsScoring chancesHD attempts

Rielly-Brodie

3-1

16-6

6-1

McCabe-Klingberg

1-4

9-19

5-14

Giordano-Liljegren

0-0

15-13

6-4

All those high-danger attempts have to be concerning.

There’s obviously some noise in those numbers. McCabe and Klingberg have spent a big chunk of their minutes with two lines — those led by John Tavares and David Kämpf — that have been buried in their own zones at times.

It’s also early in the season, when the play tends to be scrambly, and the Leafs are incorporating a fair number of new players into their system, including Klingberg.

The likeliest options if this keeps up: A) Flip Klingberg with Timothy Liljegren or B) Move Brodie to McCabe’s side, team Liljegren up with Rielly, and send Klingberg to play on the third pair with Mark Giordano.

3. Fraser Minten has been hard at work on faceoffs with Leafs assistant coach Manny Malhotra, who was a faceoff master in his playing days. Minten says Malhotra’s biggest emphasis has been on body positioning on the draw. The 19-year-old had only ever been focused on how he wielded his stick. Then he found himself tumbling over at times in the preseason while lining up for faceoffs. Malhotra suggested standing upright more for better balance. Minten has won 10 of his 19 draws so far, pretty good for a rookie.

4. Ryan Reaves drew a lot of attention (and the Leafs player of the game honours) for his physical play and fight on Saturday. What should be more in focus is how one-sided the play was when Reaves was on the ice. Shot attempts were 18-2 in the Wild’s favour when he was out there. The fourth line as a whole was badly outplayed.

5. Keefe has gone above and beyond in his praise of Reaves early this fall. But he seems to be using his Kämpf-led fourth line differently this season with Reaves in the mix. Most notable: Less frequent use of Kämpf groups on defensive zone draws. The result is a heavier defensive load for the Matthews line, which lined up for a team-high nine defensive zone draws on Saturday and only one in the offensive zone. (Somewhat related: Sam Lafferty, a useful player the team could have kept had they not signed Reaves or made different decisions at the end of training camp, scored a highlight-reel goal for the Canucks on Saturday and logged 18 minutes a few nights earlier in his Vancouver debut.)

Keefe made his way down the bench to get in Max Domi’s ear after the Wild scored their third goal, cutting the Leafs lead down to one. What may have upset him? Watch Brock Faber blow past Domi, with ease, moments before the goal:

Domi was replaced by Calle Järnkrok to start the third period.

After the game, Keefe explained that he wanted Järnkrok’s defence there alongside Tavares and Nylander instead — code for someone he could trust defensively more than Domi. In just five periods with Domi, Tavares and Nylander on the ice, a mere 16 minutes, the Leafs were outscored 3-0. This was always going to be the sticking point with Domi: He’s a minus defensively. And playing him on the second line, with two other weak-ish defensive players, figured to be problematic.

The Leafs are Domi’s fifth team in two-plus seasons.

Absent top-six minutes and linemates, Domi needs the power play to produce. That’s another problem: With a dominant first unit, the Leafs don’t have much opportunity to give him there. In two games, he’s totalled one minute and 40 seconds.

Domi and Keefe had a discussion after practice on Sunday. As the Leafs coach pointed out, Domi (among others) is still getting acclimated with the “nuances” of the team’s systems. “My focus with Max,” Keefe said, “is how he manages the puck offensively. If you don’t take care of the puck offensively you have to defend that much more. … In Max’s case, I think it’s how can he keep his group and himself on offence more often?”

Concern-o-metre

Ilya Samsonov was hit for nine goals in his first two starts. He’s probably been more unlucky than bad. Pucks have bounced off bodies and sticks and squirmed their way past him. Matt Boldy looked like he slipped a stoppable shot past Samsonov on Saturday. The puck actually touched Brodie’s stick. “S***** goals, s***** bounce,” Samsonov said with a grin.

Which brings me to one number from last season that always stuck out: Samsonov led the league with an .882 high-danger save percentage. In short, Samsonov excelled in turning down juicy opportunities around the net. There had to be some luck in that. Samsonov posted a .779 HD save percentage the previous season in Washington. So far this year: .571. He’s been beaten six times on 14 shots from the hot zones. I wonder if his luck might suffer a little bit this season. It’s too early to be overly concerned, but some concern is justified for the goalie who’s never been a full-time No. 1 before in the NHL.

Concern-o-metre: 😳😳

The big question

How long will Auston Matthews keep up this level of play?

GO DEEPER

Auston Matthews was driving toward his resurgence all summer

(Top photo of William Nylander: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)

Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, Evolving Hockey and Stat Head