Will Rishi Sunak ever sack Suella Braverman? Why Tory MPs are ‘so pissed off’ about delays to his reshuffle

November 4, 2023 6:00 am(Updated 8:50 am)

There’s a rarely a day that goes by in Westminster without an ambitious Tory MP asking when the reshuffle might be.

The prospect of a ministerial shake-up has been dangled by No 10 since the spring – but so far has come to nothing. Rishi Sunak has opted to do the bare minimum – appointing Grant Shapps as Defence Secretary in the wake of Ben Wallace’s resignation, and naming his former special adviser Claire Coutinho as Shapps’s replacement in the energy brief.

To say the moves have landed badly would be an understatement. That’s not down to a personal backlash over the two appointments (even if a former minister complains they show No 10 is a “clique” where only loyalists get ahead). Instead, the main gripe is that, in keeping the appointments so tight, Sunak missed an opportunity for a wider reshuffle at a time when it could have made a difference.

“Colleagues are so pissed off over the delay,” says one minister of the mood in the party. Even some around Sunak think the window of opportunity has been missed. “We should have gone in July, it was a mistake,” says a senior aide of the stasis. No 10 was close to doing so, but it was delayed because of the triple by-elections held just before the summer recess.

The worry was that the Tories would lose all three and it would become too dangerous to proceed. “Had we known we were going to keep Uxbridge, I think we would have pressed on,” says a No 10 adviser. By the time the result came through, the decision had already been made.

The issue now is that time is not on either Sunak or his Government’s side – and some MPs are going off the idea of entering government altogether. While the Priem Ministers’ biggest challenge between now and the next election is to improve his party’s poll deficit, also unappetising is the challenge of trying to deliver in government, as both MPs and the Whitehall machinery brace for a change of party.

Next week, Sunak will unveil the King’s Speech – King Charles’s first. The event was delayed when he took over as PM, to allow him to put his own mark on the legislative agenda, rather than just scoop up legacy bills from Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. There will be a big focus on crime and energy – though some of the contents will be about making a political point and creating dividing lines. Part of this is down to the fact that his ministers are not sure how much time they really have to get legislation through.

With the election most likely to be held in a year or so’s time, ministers already complain that civil servants are slowing down. “You can feel it,” says one Government aide. “A lot of people think a change of government is inevitable.” The problem is compounded by repeated talk of ministerial changes. But the dire polling means some once ambitious MPs are changing their minds.

“There’s not much point now,” says one Tory MP of what a reshuffle could mean for them. “It takes months to grasp a brief. I would rather focus on campaigning in my seat.”

The judgment is that being a junior minister – particularly in a politically sensitive department like the Department for Work and Pensions – isn’t worth the risk when polls point to a Labour wipeout. In CCHQ, the view is that – more than ever – being a good local MP counts: it could be the difference between victory or defeat.

But some ambition remains undimmed. Conversations between MPs and key No 10 aides are happening – some of these MPs see the polls as even more reason to get into government: it could be their last chance for a decade.

Downing Street wants to use the reshuffle to reward loyalty and promote ministers who could help Sunak argue that he has refreshed a tired Tory government. It means there will be a focus on promoting the younger intakes willing to give up their evenings to take a punishment beating on Question Time.

After the summer recess, Coutinho became the first of the 2019 batch to make it to Cabinet. Other 2019-ers lined up for promotion include former George Osborne aide Laura Trott, former CCHQ aide Richard Holden, and the lawyer Laura Farris.

Despite a push from MPs, Jeremy Hunt is likely to stay put for now. There are those around Sunak who would rather he was not in No 11. He was never the PM’s pick for the role – instead the Prime Minister inherited him from the Liz Truss premiership when the economic situation was too fragile to risk a new chancellor.

If he is moved, it’s likely to be closer to the election in the spring. As for the contenders, there are those who look at Rachel Reeves’s repeated comments (including in her new book on female economists) that if Labour wins she would be the first female chancellor in UK history.They think, why not add that instead to the Tories’ list of achievements. The most likely candidate would be Coutinho. She has treasury experience and a finance background.However, despite the excitement in the Westminster rumour mill, it is no sure thing. Other contenders would include Oliver Dowden, the Deputy Prime Minister, and Mel Stride, the Work and Pensions Secretary.

The other candidate some MPs would like to see shown the door is Suella Braverman. The Home Secretary divides No 10 – between those who see her as a massive headache, and those who think she is where many Tory voters sit, so it is better to have her in the tent than outside it. With the Supreme Court appeal over the Rwanda scheme ongoing, it is viewed as a risky time for change in the Home Office.

It means that when the reshuffle comes it is likely to lack the fireworks some MPs want to see. They are already thinking about the chances of one next year – when the really big changes could occur.

Katy Balls is Deputy Political Editor of The Spectator magazine