Will Labour’s energy plans work?

Labour’s ambitious plan for zero-carbon power by 2030 raises legitimate questions – which we’ll come to shortly – but the commentary in rightwing newspapers is bizarrely wide of the mark.

Perhaps the strangest was a Daily Telegraph editorial that claimed Labour’s plan “would make the country more dependent on imported gas, not less”. As should be obvious, the opposite is true.

The UK used 254 terawatt hours (TWh) of gas last year to generate 123TWh of electricity, 40% of the national total. Under Labour’s plan, gas demand for electricity would be 97% lower by 2030.

(Why does it take 254TWh of gas to make 123TWh of electricity? Simply because burning fossil fuels is inefficient and half of the energy in the gas is wasted at the power station.)

The UK’s low-carbon electricity sources are already saving huge amounts of gas: In 2022 to date, nuclear and renewables have generated 129TWh, more than the 95TWh we got from gas.

The Daily Telegraph editorial echoed comments made by the likes of Darren Grimes and Julia Hartley-Brewer, who complained that we “can’t rely on solar or wind to keep our lights on”.

Similarly, while interviewing the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg asked if fossil fuels would still be needed as backup in 2030, pointing to low wind output last Friday.

Elsewhere, the Daily Mail said Starmer had been “forced to backtrack” by “admit[ting]” fossil fuels might still be used as backup under his 2030 plan.

This was not so much an admission as a reiteration: Labour’s own press release had said it would “maintain … a strategic reserve of backup gas power”, as well as a range of other sources.

Indeed, Labour’s plan does not rely on wind and solar alone. The hour-by-hour electricity system modelling behind Labour’s plans shows what would fill the gaps when the wind does not blow.

In line with the clear consensus that cheap renewables will make up the bulk of electricity supplies in the future, Labour sees wind and solar making up about 70% of the electricity mix in 2030.

Almost all of the remaining 30% of the nation’s electricity would come from a mixture of other low-carbon sources including additional new nuclear plants, other renewables and hydrogen.

The modelling then leaves a very small share – about 0.7% of annual electricity in 2030 – coming from gas power. A further 0.5% would come from gas plants fitted with carbon capture equipment that prevents their carbon dioxide emissions from reaching the atmosphere.

It’s clear that it would be possible to run a reliable UK electricity system on virtually 100% clean power, even during so-called “kalte dunkelflaute” with cold weather and little wind or sun.

It’s also worth noting that Labour is not alone in imagining a fully decarbonised UK electricity system will soon be possible. The current government ambition, which is also backed by detailed modelling, is for 95% clean power by 2030 and close to 100% by 2035.

Similarly, the National Grid Electricity System Operator has set out a range of “credible ways” to meet the UK’s net zero 2050 target, including one which reaches 98% clean power by 2030.

Nevertheless, there are legitimate questions about the pace of Labour’s ambition, which would imply going from the current level of about 55% clean power to 99% in less than a decade.

This rate of change would be historically unprecedented, at the same time as electricity demand increases to meet growing demand from electric vehicles and heat pumps.

Until the 1960s, fossil fuels supplied more than 95% of the UK’s electricity. The development of nuclear power pushed the low-carbon share of electricity towards 25% by the late 1980s, where it remained into the early part of this century.

More recently, the rapid growth of wind, solar and other renewables has seen the UK transform its electricity supply in a decade. Yet despite clean sources growing their share of UK electricity by 2.9 percentage points every year since 2010, fossil fuels still make up 45% of the total.

Reaching Labour’s ambition for 99% by 2030 would mean increasing the rate of growth from 2.9 percentage points a year up to 4.9, starting this year. If this sprint only begins after the next election in 2024, the pace would need to be faster, at more than 7 percentage points a year.

These are not only mathematical challenges – and it is not only a matter of doubling onshore wind, tripling solar and quadrupling offshore wind, as Starmer has pledged. (Meeting these renewable targets is likely to require planning reform to speed up the process of approvals.)

If Labour’s goal is to be met, the UK must also build new nuclear plants, gas plants with carbon capture and storage, hydrogen turbines with clean hydrogen to fuel them, along with huge increases in electricity network capacity, energy storage and “demand-side response”.

While the UK need not follow the precise pathway set out in the modelling behind Labour’s proposals, it would need an equivalent set of alternatives to reach close to 100% clean power.

And even if Labour’s 2030 target proves too ambitious to meet, the government’s goal of a fully decarbonised electricity system by 2035 is not exactly far behind.

Regardless of these question marks, one thing is for sure – whatever the editorial pages of the Daily Telegraph suggests: Whether the UK reaches 100% clean power by 2030 or 2035, the shift towards wind, solar and other low-carbon sources is 100% guaranteed to cut our demand for gas.