Why Tyron Smith’s injury is a massive blow to the Dallas Cowboys’ offense

(Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)

One thing defenses learned in 2021 was that blitzing Dak Prescott was an invitation to disaster. Against six or more pass-rushers last season, Prescott completed 25 of 40 passes for 211 yards, 91 air yards, 12 touchdowns, and one interception. Matthew Stafford ranked second with 10 touchdowns against such blitzes. Prescott’s dominance was even more pronounced against five or more pass rushers; he threw 24 touchdown passes to four interceptions, and Stafford ranked second with 17.

Now, when Smith was on the field for those blitzes, Prescott was far more inclined to take chances. Against the blitz, Prescott averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, compared to 5.4 when Smith was not on the field. Dallas’ yards per dropback dropped from 7.2 to 4.2 when Smith was out, and Prescott’s average depth of target dropped from 9.3 to 7.8. Dallas’ passing touchdown rate dropped from 13.8% to 13.1%, and the interception rate actually increased when Smith was on the field — from 1.6% to 2.6%.

What does this tell you? With Smith protecting his blind side, Prescott was far more confident turning it loose.

Here, against the Panthers in Week 4, Smith (No. 77) handles the end tackle stunt with Haason Reddick (No. 43) and Bravvion Roy (No. 93) perfectly, stoning Roy at the line of scrimmage and helping Prescott with the time he needed to hit Amari Cooper for a 35-yard touchdown pass.

Here’s another 35-yard completion against the blitz the next week against the Giants. Here, Smith has Lorenzo Carter (No. 59) as his responsibility, and he just buries the poor guy. Prescott is therefore perfectly happy to make a gorgeous cross-body boundary throw to Cedrick Wilson Jr..

And on this 28-yard Prescott pass to Cooper from Dallas’ own two-yard line against the Buccaneers in the 2021 season opener, Smith has to re-set to deal with Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (No. 9) blitzing from off-ball (a Todd Bowles special) as Jason Pierre-Paul (No. 90) kicks inside. It’s an empty formation, so any leakage would be deadly. And as usual, it’s no problem for Smith. Prescott has the time and vision to make the throw to get the Cowboys out of trouble.

Without Smith on the field, especially against the blitz, Dallas’ passing game might be more efficient in a conservative sense, but the explosive plays will be far harder to string together on a consistent basis. As the modern NFL is all about creating and preventing explosive plays… that’s a serious problem.