Why The Sixers Don’t Plan To Sign Tyrese Maxey To An Extension … Yet

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – MAY 03: Tyrese Maxey #0 of the Philadelphia 76ers dribbles against the … [+] Boston Celtics during the second half of game two of the Eastern Conference Second Round Playoffs at TD Garden on May 03, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Celtics defeat the 76ers 121-87. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

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Tyrese Maxey became eligible to sign an extension with the Philadelphia 76ers at midnight on July 1. But with James Harden’s future up in the air, the Sixers are reportedly in no rush to sign Maxey to a new deal, either.

Kyle Neubeck of PhillyVoice was the first to report Friday that the Sixers were not expected to sign Maxey to an extension this offseason, which ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne later confirmed. Shelburne reported that the Sixers still see Maxey “as a big part of their future,” but they’re holding off on extending him “to preserve flexibility.”

If the Sixers stay the course and don’t extend Maxey by the mid-October deadline, he’ll instead become a restricted free agent next summer. There’s sound logic behind allowing that to happen, but it isn’t without risk.

In terms of average annual value, Maxey’s extension figures to be around what Tyler Herro (four years, $120 million) and Jordan Poole (four years, $128 million) received last offseason, if not more. If the Sixers signed him to a new deal this offseason, the starting salary of his extension would immediately count against their books in 2024-25.

As a Bird rights free agent who’s coming off his rookie-scale deal and whose salary is below the average player salary, Maxey’s cap hold will be 300% of what he earns in 2023-24 ($4.3 million). That means his cap hold heading into the 2024 offseason will be only $13.0 million, which is likely far lower than the starting salary on his new extension.

As of now, the Sixers’ books are relatively clean beyond next season. Joel Embiid will be in the second year of his four-year, $213 million extension and will be earning $51.4 million in 2024-25, but he’s their only guaranteed salary. P.J. Tucker has a $11.5 million player option, while the Sixers have a $4.0 million team option on Jaden Springer.

According to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, the NBA’s early projection for the 2024-25 salary cap is $142 million, although it could rise as high as $149.6 million (the maximum 10% increase agreed upon in the new collective bargaining agreement). Even if Tucker picked up his player option and the Sixers exercised their team option on Springer, they’d have less than $67 million on their books that season. Add in Maxey’s $13.0 million cap hold, and they’d be right at $80 million.

De’Anthony Melton is also set to become a free agent next summer if the Sixers don’t agree to an extension with him beforehand, and he’d have a $15.2 million cap hold if they don’t renounce him. Either way, they could potentially finagle their way into having enough cap space to sign a free agent to a maximum contract before re-signing Maxey and/or Melton.

It has become increasingly rare for star free agents to change teams in recent years—Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Jimmy Butler are perhaps the most recent examples in 2019—but Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Pascal Siakam and Dejounte Murray are among the players who could become free agents next summer. Having financial flexibility could be an asset in and of itself when the full array of penalties kicks in for teams above the second salary-cap apron in 2024-25, too. The Utah Jazz just acquired John Collins from the Atlanta Hawks basically for free, after all.

Big-game hunting in free agency isn’t the only reason why the Sixers might hold off on a Maxey extension, though. The poison-pill provision also likely gave them pause.

When a team extends a player on a rookie-scale contract and then trades him before the extension takes effect, the CBA complicates the salary-matching math. His outgoing salary counts as his actual salary, while his incoming salary counts as the average of the salary in his last year of his rookie-scale contract and each year of the extension.

Combine that with the second-apron restrictions that begin this offseason—teams above that threshold can’t take back more than 110% of the salary they send out, plus $250,000—and it would become far more difficult to trade Maxey during the 2023-24 season if the Sixers extended him.

“I know Ramona reported a short time ago that the Sixers were not going to extend Tyrese Maxey this summer,” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said Friday. “You want to know why? Because they might trade him! And because he would be a potential piece in a Dame Lillard trade.”

Sources told Neubeck that “a trade for Lillard was a low-odds proposition contingent on multiple factors,” although “they would not rule out the possibility” shortly before free agency began Friday. Even if Lillard doesn’t request a trade from the Portland Trail Blazers, there’s no telling which stars—if any—could become available between now and the February trade deadline. Maintaining the ability to include Maxey as the blue-chip asset in any trade gives the Sixers additional optionality to rework their roster post-Harden.

There’s likely an on-court element to this, too. If the Sixers don’t get another ball-handler in exchange for Harden or sign one in free agency, they’ll be turning their offense over to Maxey as the full-time point guard.

Maxey spent the first half of the 2021-22 campaign in that role amidst Ben Simmons’ holdout, but he shifted into more of an off-ball role over the past year-and-a-half following Harden’s arrival. The Sixers might want to see how he fares sans Harden across a full season before handing him a nine-figure payday.

During his introductory press conference, new Sixers head coach Nick Nurse highlighted playmaking as the area he’d like to see Maxey improve upon.

“Being more of a creator,” Nurse said. “And well, what is creating? Creating is you’re scoring or you’re drawing more people than one, and then you’re creating for others. Can he make the reads, all the reads? And I think that’s the first place I would start offensively is getting him more reps in the pick-and-roll so he can make the reads to all the other players on the floor depending on what he sees.”

Maxey averaged 4.3 assists per game in 2021-22, but he dropped down to 3.5 assists per game this past season with Harden commandeering the ball in half-court sets. Either way, that’s a far cry from the league-leading 10.7 dimes that Harden dished per game in 2022-23.

If Maxey can conjure the same type of chemistry with Embiid that Harden had this past season, the Sixers might be willing to hand him a blank check next July. Allowing him to test restricted free agency isn’t without risk, though.

The Sixers are allowed to offer Maxey a five-year extension starting at 25% of the 2024-25 salary cap with 8% annual raises, while other suitors are limited to a four-year deal at the same starting point with 5% annual raises. The Sixers could also start his extension at 30% of the 2024-25 cap if he’s named Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year or to an All-NBA team this coming season.

If the Sixers aren’t willing to meet Maxey’s asking price, they run the risk of him signing an offer sheet with another team. While they’ll have the opportunity to match any offer sheet he signs, they’d be forfeiting at least one year of team control over him by not signing him to a five-year contract themselves. He also could choose to sign a three-year deal to become an unrestricted free agent more quickly—and be eligible for a 30% max when he did.

The Detroit Pistons tried this gambit with Andre Drummond in 2015, and it ended with him signing a five-year, $127 million max deal the following summer. The San Antonio Spurs did the same with Kawhi Leonard the previous offseason, which gave them enough cap space to sign LaMarcus Aldridge in 2015.

There is a method to the Sixers’ madness, particularly with Harden’s future so uncertain at the moment. However, Maxey could throw a wrench into the Sixers’ plans next summer if he isn’t on board with their vision.

How this plays out over the next 12 months will likely be one of the determining factors in how the rest of Embiid’s tenure in Philadelphia plays out.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.