Why the Islanders should wait before trading for defense help

On the ice from Long Island

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If the Islanders want to put a positive spin on this season in public, they still can.

The Islanders are just two points out of a playoff spot.

On a per-game basis, they’ve spent the smallest amount of time trailing in the league — an indicator their 8-7-6 record could be due for a turnaround.

The Metropolitan Division is weak and, if they can get into the playoffs, the Islanders have the sort of goaltending and play style to upset a team or two.

Maybe that all comes to fruition. Twenty-one games is certainly too early to say it won’t.

But at least in private, the Islanders need to tell themselves the truth about the direction this season is going. Forget overtime losses for a moment — the Islanders have walked out of the building with a win just eight times in their first 21 games. They are down two defensemen for an unknown period of time. They have shown a total inability to close out games.

A report from ESPN’s Kevin Weekes on Tuesday linked the Islanders to Calgary defenseman Nikita Zadorov, which is in line with rumors that have gone around since it became clear the Flames would be looking to offload defensemen, even before Adam Pelech got hurt.

Lou Lamoriello’s intentions are generally opaque, but he is not one to sit on his hands and watch his team struggle.

General manager Lou Lamoriello isn’t likely to let the Islanders flounder without trying to make a move to alter the roster. NHLI via Getty Images

Zadorov — or Chris Tanev or Noah Hanifin, for that matter — probably would help an Islanders team whose defense has been leaky all season, even before its current spate of injuries. With Pelech on LTIR, the salary-cap machinations of adding money are — at least for the moment — a little simpler, though it’s not exactly clear how they would make it work once his salary is back on the books.

Right now, though, the Islanders can’t talk themselves into adding in the trade market without seeing a lot more out of this team.

Since Lamoriello was hired as general manager, the Islanders have made just three draft picks in the first round, the last coming in 2019. It’s hard to imagine it would take a first-round pick to acquire Zadorov, who reportedly requested a trade out of Calgary and is on an expiring contract, but the Isles almost surely would be giving up a draft pick of some kind.

Next year’s third-round pick is already gone in the deal that brought Pierre Engvall to the Islanders. So is the 2026 second-rounder, which went to Chicago to get the Blackhawks to take Josh Bailey’s contract.

The Islanders are in danger of getting themselves into something of a cycle, wherein the best way to bolster their playoff hopes is to trade away draft assets, but the combination of trading draft assets and their long-term cap commitments puts them in a position where they are locked into fighting for a low playoff seed each season.

Trading for defenseman Nikita Zadorov might help the Islanders defense, but it likely would come at a cost of some of the precious few draft assets the team possesses. Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Remember, the Islanders got into the playoffs last season with 93 points — the lowest total for an Eastern Conference team to make it since 2016. That team, whose roster was essentially the same as this season’s, ended 2022-23 with 44 victories in 88 games, including the postseason. This team has eight wins in 21 games.

That does not indicate the Islanders are one or two players away from contending for a championship.

Neither does just about anything the current team has done.

At least for the time being, they need to ride it out and see whether the optimistic version of events has any credence.

If not, dealing away a few assets at the deadline and thinking about a shakeup to the core needs to be on the table.

There’s still a lot of time for the current situation to change, but one of Lamoriello’s favorite phrases is “Never assume.” The Islanders would do well to take that under advisement.

The opposing view

The argument in favor of being proactive starts with the unclear timelines for Pelech’s and Sebastian Aho’s returns.

Scott Mayfield (left) is trying to anchor a struggling Islanders defense that is without the injured Adam Pelech and Sebastian Aho. USA TODAY Sports

The Islanders should have more information than they’ve let on publicly, at least about Pelech’s exact timeline, and if they feel a need to make a deal now, it could mean they are bracing for being without him for longer than three weeks.

With or without Pelech, shoring up the defense is the most important thing the Islanders can do late in games. It’s normal to be defending a little bit more when holding a lead, but the Islanders are giving up a staggering 66.5 percent expected goals above league average when holding a two-goal lead, per HockeyViz.

If they can fix that, it would be a very productive first step in getting to the playoffs — and however disappointing the first quarter of the season has been, the standings say the Islanders are still very much in the race.

If they do get in, anything can happen, as the Panthers proved last season.

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Speaking for the defense

When all is said and done, it may be that drafting Noah Dobson 12th overall in 2018 turns out to be Lamoriello’s best move as Islanders GM.

It is not just the on-ice leap Dobson has taken this season, averaging 25:03 to rank sixth in the league and shoring up his play in both zones.

Noah Dobson’s evolution into a leader on the ice and in the locker room has validated Lamoriello’s decision to draft the defenseman in 2018 NHLI via Getty Images

It is the way the 23-year-old’s starting to emerge as a leader in the dressing room, making himself available after each and every practice and game.

The Islanders probably have some time to go before picking their next captain with Anders Lee under contract until 2026.

But Dobson is putting himself in line for consideration when that day comes.