Why the Diamondbacks have a good shot at beating Patrick Corbin, plus other best bets for Thursday

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Happy Thursday, everybody, but especially to Chicago White Sox pitcher Carlos Rodon. I’m still buzzing over Rodon’s no-hitter on Wednesday night. My sports fan relationship with Rodon goes back quite a way, as I was a White Sox fan watching him pitch at NC State eight years ago, hoping the White Sox would lose enough games that they’d have a chance to draft him. They did, taking him with the No. 3 pick of the 2014 MLB Draft.

I’ve seen his entire career play out since. I’ve seen him battle through all the injuries and fail to live up to the hype surrounding him when the White Sox drafted him. I wondered if it was better for both parties to go their separate ways over the winter, but I was glad to see Rodon re-sign with the White Sox on a one-year deal for 2021.

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And I was thrilled to see it all culminate in a no-hitter on Wednesday. Even if it proves to be the highlight of his entire career, I’m happy he had the chance to have it at all. He’s more than earned it. Oh, and if you’re mad at Cleveland catcher Roberto Perez for not moving out of the way of a slider at his feet in the ninth inning to ruin the perfect game, you’re an idiot. It’s not the hitter’s job to help the pitcher get them out. Even with a perfect game going.

OK, let’s make some money.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Diamondbacks at Nationals, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

The Pick: Diamondbacks (+157)

: I see value on the Diamondbacks here, as they enter tonight’s festivities performing well against left-handed pitching. Of course, tonight they face one of the better left-handers in the league in Patrick Corbin, but Corbin hasn’t been spectacular as of late.

Since the beginning of the 2020 season, he’s posted an ERA of 5.14 across 70 innings and 12 starts. His WHIP is at 1.60, and his strikeout rate of 20.6% is pedestrian. In his lone start this season, he was hit around by the Dodgers, though the Dodgers do that to everybody, so I’m not sure how seriously we should take it.

And that’s fine because Corbin alone isn’t the reason I see value on Arizona here. It’s also the Washington offense. The Nats offense ranks 11th in MLB with a wOBA of .313 and 15th with a wRC+ of 95, but its performance against lefties skews that. Against righties like Arizona starter Merrill Kelly, the Washington offense ranks 25th in baseball with a wOBA of .275, with only two homers in 196 plate appearances so far.

Key Trend: Washington is 1-4 in its last five as a favorite.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Advanced Computer Model likes a money line play in this matchup, but it’s a bigger fan of one side of the spread.

💰 The Picks 🏒 NHL

Jets at Maple Leafs, 7 p.m. | TV: NHL Center Ice

The Pick: Maple Leafs (-150) — 

No, this is not the AM edition of this newsletter, and I am not Pete Blackburn. This is an NHL pick, though! A real one! I know I don’t make a lot of these, but that should only make you more confident about how I feel about it.

One thing I’ve tracked this season is how teams are handling playing with little rest. Considering how the 2020 season went for the NHL and NBA thanks to COVID, and the short offseason, my theory was that tired teams would be excellent fades, and I’ve seen a lot of positive returns on this theory.

Tonight we have a Winnipeg team that is playing its fifth consecutive road game, and its fifth game in seven days. You can hardly blame the Jets for having some tired legs tonight.

Key Trend: Toronto is 9-3 in its last 12 games.

⚽ Champions League

The Pick: Manchester City to win the Champions League (+130) — The Champions League quarterfinals wrapped up on Wednesday, and now only four teams remain in the tournament. Manchester City is one of them, and it’s no surprise to find them here, as they’re the best team in the world right now. And while I don’t mean this as any disrespect to PSG, Chelsea or Real Madrid, they simply aren’t in the same league as City right now. Nobody is. It’s always been one of the most talented and well-coached teams in the world, but now it’s taken its game to another level.

I see Manchester City finally winning the Champions League this season more often than it doesn’t, so if I can get plus odds on it, I’m not passing up the opportunity.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Mixed martial arts expert Ian Parker has revealed his top selections for Saturday’s UFC card in Las Vegas.

💸 The DFS Rundown Building Blocks

PG: Stephen Curry, Warriors

SG: Devin Booker, Suns

SF: Jaylen Brown, Celtics

PF: Draymond Green, Warriors

C: Clint Capela, Hawks

Value Plays

PG: Dennis Schroder, Lakers

SG: Isaac Okoro, Cavs

SF: Mikal Bridges, Suns

PF: Harrison Barnes, Kings

C: Robert Williams, Celtics

Full lineup advice

Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.

 ⚾ MLB Stack Attack

We’re betting on each of these Dodgers to hit a dinger tonight.