Who will win AFC West? Projecting various paths for the QB-driven division

On paper, the AFC West is loaded. There’s an outside shot all four teams could make the playoffs, especially with the new postseason format allowing an additional team from each conference to make it. In a quarterback-driven league, the fourth-best quarterback in the division could be the Raiders’ Derek Carr, who is widely considered a fringe top-10 quarterback. Carr would not be the third- or fourth-best quarterback in many divisions but this one features two elite quarterbacks in the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Chargers’ Justin Herbert. Also, the Broncos’ newly acquired Russell Wilson has been an elite quarterback for most of his career before having a down season in 2021.

The Chiefs were the only team of four that didn’t load up their roster with big names this offseason, but they’ve won the division six seasons in a row and are coming off an AFC championship appearance. There are a lot of directions in which this division could shake out. For example, no one would be surprised if the Raiders finished last in the division and at the same time, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Las Vegas had a top-five offense and won the division. There are realistic avenues for each team to finish first as well as finish last.

Chiefs

The Chiefs lost a big part of their identity when they traded receiver Tyreek Hill. For years, Hill’s ability to get behind defenses with Mahomes’ uncanny ability to throw the deep ball struck fear in the hearts of defenses. No team in the league has seen more two-deep defenses than the Chiefs with Mahomes at the helm. Defenses sat back to take away explosive plays and forced the Chiefs to be methodical. Next season, will defenses continue to give them two-high looks without Hill because they fear Mahomes? Or more one-high looks because they aren’t afraid of the Chiefs receivers?

The Chiefs have a solid receiving corps with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and rookie Skyy Moore. Travis Kelce is still one of the best tight ends in the league (if not the best) but he should expect to see even more bracket coverage without Hill in the lineup. If the Chiefs continue to see two-deep looks, Smith-Schuster, Kelce, and Moore should be able to work the short game and create after the catch, but if defenses start challenging the Chiefs’ receivers, can they win as consistently as Hill did?

Running the ball with traditional runs rather than run/pass options (RPOs) in which Mahomes chooses the option to pass more often than not seemed like the easy answer to two-high defenses. The Chiefs certainly have the offensive line to do it with Orlando Brown, Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. Last season, the Chiefs ran the ball successfully for stretches, but would inevitably go away from it. Forcing defenses to be structured and worrying about proper run fits will limit some of the exotic looks that get thrown at the Chiefs. Mahomes is still Mahomes and he’ll be able to create plays outside of structure, but as the Chiefs learned last season, they can’t live on his ability to create. He’s going to need help. Without a true No. 1 receiver, it seems the run game should be a bigger part of this offense, but will Andy Reid commit to doing it more often?

Defensively, the Chiefs lost edge Melvin Ingram and cornerback Charvarius Ward. They used their two first-round picks to replace both players. With the 21st pick, the Chiefs selected Trent McDuffie from Washington. Because McDuffie doesn’t have elite size or speed, some thought he would play nickel, but he will reportedly get a shot to play outside first. Ingram provided the Chiefs with a much-needed physical presence when he was acquired via trade midseason. To replace him, the Chiefs drafted George Karlaftis out of Purdue with the 30th pick. Karlaftis is a physical, power rusher that only had five sacks in his final college season. Karlaftis doesn’t have to finish with a high sack total to make an impact. Ingram only finished with one sack as a Chief, but he was disruptive, good against the run, and allowed Chris Jones to stay inside. McDuffie and Karlaftis are young but they’ll be playing integral roles for a team with championship aspirations.

Chargers

The Chargers were the most aggressive team in the division in terms of adding talent. They traded for Khalil Mack to pair with Joey Bosa up front and signed the best free agent corner on the market, J.C. Jackson. Last season, they struggled in run defense going from former defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s single-gap system to Brandon Staley’s gap-and-half system. In Bradley’s scheme, defensive linemen were asked to fly upfield. In Staley’s, they have to hold their gap and play with more control. The Chargers didn’t have enough size and strength to hold up, but this offseason they added defensive linemen Sebastian Joseph-Day, Morgan Fox and Austin Johnson. Joseph-Day and Fox have experience in Staley’s system and Johnson finished last season with 72 tackles and 37 run stops. Additionally, Mack is an elite run defender.

The biggest concern with this defense is edge depth. Bosa has missed 18 games in his six-year career, and last season Mack tried playing through a foot injury but had to have surgery and missed the final 10 games of the year. Kyle Van Noy and second-year player Chris Rumph II, who was a fourth-round pick, are the primary backups. If either Bosa or Mack misses time, the pass rush will take a significant hit without a consistent interior rusher. However, with the upgrades they made on the defensive side of the ball, Staley’s defense should no longer be a liability.

Offensively, the Chargers’ biggest weakness in the last couple of seasons has been their offensive line. Last season, first-round pick Rashawn Slater exceeded expectations and played like an elite left tackle. Left guard Matt Feiler is very good and center Corey Linsley is one of the best at his position. This season, the Chargers drafted Zion Johnson, who many considered the top guard in the draft. If he pans out, the only weak spot would be at right tackle where Storm Norton and Trey Pipkins will compete for a starting position. With the elite pass rush duos in the AFC West, teams need to have two reliable offensive tackles. When Herbert struggled, it was often because the pressure was unrelenting from the right side. Though right tackle is a problem, it’s easier for offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi to scheme around one position of concern rather than two or three. The Chargers look like the division’s most complete team on paper overall.

Raiders

The Raiders have one of the best receiving corps in the league after trading for Davante Adams to team up with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. According to Yahoo Sports’ Matt Harmon, Adams saw the highest double-coverage rate last season in the eight years that Harmon charted for his Reception Perception project. Despite this, Adams was one of the most productive receivers in the league. In the Raiders offense, he won’t figure to have to work as hard: If Adams gets doubled, Waller will see more one-on-one coverage, and if defenses play cover 7 and bracket both of them, Renfrow is going to see one-on-one with a lot of space to work with.

Derek Carr, who was too conservative throwing the ball in the past, has increased his aggression in throwing the ball downfield in the last couple of seasons. In the last two years, he increased his air yards per attempt to 8.11 (12th in the league). He’s also been much better playing under pressure since his gruesome leg injury in 2016. Though he has been better at creating outside of structure, it’s still not his strength. The Raiders’ offensive line was one of the worst pass-blocking units in the league last season, and after not making any significant additions through free agency, the group remains the biggest question mark for the offense. Guard Denzelle Good is coming back from tearing his ACL in week 1. He’ll help but the Raiders desperately need last year’s first-round pick Alex Leatherwood to make a gigantic leap in his development.

Last season, he was so bad at tackle that after week 4, the coaching staff kicked him inside to guard where he wasn’t much better — Though he did improve towards the end of the season. The Raiders are giving him a chance to compete at right tackle again, but if he doesn’t pan out then Brandon Parker, who gave up 9 sacks in 13 games last season will once again be the starter. Head coach Josh McDaniels and his staff seem to believe that better coaching can fix the Raiders’ offensive line woes, but they’ll have to be considerably better as pass protectors and run blockers.

Defensively, the Raiders have one of the best passing rushing duos in the league with Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. Outside of the pass rush, there are a lot of question marks on defense but the biggest area of concern is the secondary. Second-year safety Tre’von Moehrig and nickel Nate Hobbs look like they could develop into elite players at their position and veteran corner Rock Ya-Sin, who was acquired via trade, is solid. However, starting corner Trayvon Mullen had foot surgery this offseason and is currently on the physically unable to perform list.

Strong safety Jonathan Abram had a good season playing in former defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s system as a box safety, but he’s a questionable fit in current defensive coordinator Patrick Graham’s system. Graham has always adjusted his scheme to the players he has available and he’s always been multiple. He’s not just going to sit in cover 3 for a majority of snaps. Can Abram play man or a deep half when asked to do so? He hasn’t shown he can do either thing well so far in his career. There’s a chance Duron Harmon, who has experience playing in the Patriots system in the past, supplants Abram but he’s 31 years old. Overall, the Raiders have some elite talent in high-impact positions but lack depth everywhere else.

Broncos

How do you build an offense around Russell Wilson? On the surface, it may not seem like a difficult problem considering Wilson has been an elite quarterback for most of his career. Now, new head coach Nathaniel Hackett and the Broncos will have their shot at figuring it out. Wilson has always been productive but the Seahawks never consistently struck the right balance and Wilson became increasingly frustrated until he was traded. Though there were times when the Seahawks ran the ball and took the ball out of Wilson’s hands too much, they were right to attempt to threaten defenses with the run game and force them to keep an extra defender in the box. The Athletic’s Nick Kosmider found in Wilson’s three most efficient seasons as a passer, the Seahawks had a top-10 running game in terms of expected points added (EPA).

Wilson wants to attack the sideline and he doesn’t throw much to the middle of the field. Specifically, he has a difficult time against cover 2. In the last few years, he’s thrown four touchdowns to five interceptions against cover 2. When defenses put an extra defender in the box, receivers have more one-on-one opportunities outside and that’s where Wilson wants to attack. The Broncos have one of the league’s best young running back duos with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III, but they’ll have to run the ball more efficiently than they did last season when they finished 23rd in EPA per game, according to TruMedia. Kosmider wrote that this Broncos staff believes their offensive line is more suited to run outside zone. If they are right, Wilson will enjoy the benefits of play action and be able to do what he enjoys most: throw bombs.

Defensively, the Broncos have some star power and just a solid roster overall. Free safety Justin Simmons is widely considered the best at his position and second-year cornerback Patrick Surtain II is an ascending star. There isn’t much to worry about with the defensive depth (and this is nitpicking) but the biggest concern is going from Vic Fangio, who has been one of the best defensive play-callers in the league for a long time, to first-year defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. That’s not to say Evero will be bad but it’s hard to fill shoes as big as Fangio’s.

(Top photo of Patrick Mahomes: Kirby Lee / USA Today)