Who the Chiefs could play next, if they beat Miami, and who they might want to see

Even amid the unpredictability of NFL playoff football, we know one thing for certain in the Chiefs-Dolphins opening-round matchup.

It will be cold.

Maybe colder, in fact, than any game in Chiefs history.

But the product on the field? I pointed out earlier this week that the Chiefs’ path to another Super Bowl is more difficult than any they’ve had since Patrick Mahomes arrived in Kansas City. The Dolphins are a reason for that.

But not the only reason.

Before I move forward, I can’t underscore thickly enough that the Chiefs have not moved forward. It’s all attention on the Dolphins.

For them.

For us? Why not a peek ahead at what could await down the road?

The Chiefs have to win for any of what follows to matter — and their implied odds, based on the betting market calculations, are about 68% to beat the Dolphins.

So who would they see next? Who should they want to see next?

The first answer first:

• If the Bills beat the Steelers on Sunday (and the Chiefs win Saturday), the Chiefs would travel to Buffalo next weekend, and the Texans/Browns winner will head to Baltimore.

• If the Steelers upset the Bills (and the Chiefs win), the Chiefs will play the winner of the Texans/Browns game, which is scheduled Saturday afternoon. (Which, ahem, is why we’re bringing these possibilities to you now, so you can have a guide before that game kicks off.)

The analysis below orders the teams by the degree difficulty they would pose for the Chiefs.

The hardest first:

Buffalo Bills

Possibility of Chiefs’ next opponent: 82%

What to know: The reason the Chiefs path is probably tougher than it’s ever been with Patrick Mahomes? This is a big part of it. If the Chiefs get past Miami, the odds above show they will likely have to travel to Buffalo — which would mark Patrick Mahomes’ first career road playoff game.

The Bills are rated as the third best team in football, per FTN DVOA, an all-encompassing metric to grade teams on a per-play basis. Josh Allen has played about as well as any quarterback in the league, finishing second in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play, according to Sumer Sports.

He had the most interceptions in the AFC with 18, but his turnover-worthy play percentage (a PFF stat) actually ranked in the middle of the pack. The Chiefs finished second in the NFL with 57 sacks, but Allen is statistically better than anyone at avoiding sacks. Only 10.3% of his pressures turn into sacks, per PFF. (Mahomes is second lowest at 11.2%, by the way.)

Oh, and they’re pretty good on the other side of the ball. The pass defense is inside the top-10 in most metrics, but if there’s a spot you beat them, the numbers show it’s down the field. The Bills have struggled defending the back end, which would present an interesting matchup-within-the-matchup for a Chiefs team that has only rarely connected on downfield shots.

In fact, there’s a lot within this potential game that would force the Chiefs to play unlike they’ve played most of the season. The best ways to attack the Bills are in the running game and deep in the passing game. The Chiefs have been pass-heavy more than run-heavy, and Mahomes has the shortest average depth of target in the league.

Cleveland Browns

Possibility of Chiefs’ next opponent: 10%

What to know: It’s remarkable what the Browns have done this season, given how devastated their roster was by injury.

It’s all about the defense.

OK, and maybe Joe Flacco.

But mostly the defense.

The Browns led the NFL in EPA/play allowed overall and ranked in the same spot against the pass. They have the best pass rush, per PFF grades, and it’s no wonder why: Myles Garrett is the Vegas favorite to win the league’s defensive player of the year award. But they’re also good in coverage.

The offense? Well, it doesn’t have the look of an 11-6 team. They’ve started five different quarterbacks this season before settling on Flacco. He’s been a late-career surprise — the Browns offense rates 13th in DVOA in his starts, per FTN.

The rush offense still struggles, but here’s one other stat that caught my attention: The Browns use a sixth offensive lineman on more than 10% of their plays, per Sumer Sports. You can’t help but wonder if the Browns would try to take advantage of a Chiefs defense ranked 27th against the rush by FTN’s DVOA.

Houston Texans

Possibility of Chiefs’ next opponent: 8%

What to know: The accelerated pace of the Texans’ rebuild – aided by the easiest schedule in the AFC, though, I’ll mention— points in one direction.

C.J. Stroud.

He had one of the best rookie seasons of any quarterback in NFL history. He has particularly preference of attacking the field: Deep. Stroud finished with an average depth of target of 9.4 yards, the highest in the league.

His favorite target, Nico Collins, is second in the NFL in yards per route run, per PFF, and he trails only Chiefs rookie Rashee Rice in yards after the catch per reception.

It would be strength on strength, in that case. The Texans don’t run the ball effectively, forcing them into pass-heavy looks. Well, the Chiefs defend the pass quite well — they allowed the third-fewest yards per pass play and finished with the highest sack rate in the league, the only team turning more than 10% of dropbacks into sacks.

The Chiefs might like their offensive matchup here. The Texans are far weaker in the secondary than they are up front — 23rd in pass defense DVOA and second in rush DVOA. There’s one particular area the Chiefs would really want to exploit — the Texans allowed the second most catches and yards to tight ends of any team in the league, per FTN.