Who is Real Madrid’s No 1? Kepa Arrizabalaga or Andriy Lunin?

Who is Real Madrid’s first-choice goalkeeper?

The question has become a common one of late, with manager Carlo Ancelotti asked about it four times a week. Faced with such an absurd situation, the Italian responded to the latest line of inquiry with a joke before the Supercopa de Espana final against Barcelona.

“I thank you for being so worried about what I’m going to do,” he said in Saudi Arabia on Saturday. “But don’t worry, I’m going to do something.”

What Ancelotti did on Sunday was replace Kepa Arrizabalaga, who had made a few mistakes in the semi-final against Atletico Madrid, with Andriy Lunin, who then played confidently against Barcelona. He made some important saves and even got a hand to Robert Lewandowski’s thunderous goal.

Just before the 4-1 victory, speaking on Spanish TV, Ancelotti said he had decided which goalkeeper would start each game before the Supercopa began. He also said that he had already planned for Lunin, 24, to play in the Copa del Rey on Thursday at Atletico. But in his post-match press conference, he said he “couldn’t remember saying that”, before confirming that Lunin would indeed play, adding that “in La Liga, Kepa will be back”.

Many media outlets and fans interpreted this as a sign that Ancelotti had decided to rotate his keepers in each competition — that Arrizabalaga, 29, would play in league games and Lunin in the Copa del Rey and the Champions League. The Italian followed that policy with Iker Casillas and Diego Lopez during his first spell in charge at the club, in 2013-2014, when Madrid won their 10th European Cup/Champions League title and the Copa del Rey.

But that is not the case now because there has been no firm decision made on rotations. At least for the moment.

In August, after Arrizabalaga’s loan move from Chelsea was announced following an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury suffered by Thibaut Courtois, Ancelotti said of the Spaniard and Ukrainian Lunin: “They are both very good goalkeepers and one or the other will get more minutes.”

In reality, though, Arrizabalaga had joined to be No 1 in Courtois’ absence. He had been guaranteed that would be the case when negotiating his move to Madrid from the London club, which led to him turning his back on the option of signing on loan with Bayern Munich instead — when a private plane had already been booked to take him to Germany.

That is how things started. Arrizabalaga had always been very much the favourite of Madrid goalkeeping coach Luis Llopis, who worked with him at Athletic Bilbao’s youth academy. Llopis had also recommended his signing during his previous spell at Madrid, an option ruled out by then-coach Zinedine Zidane, who preferred to keep Keylor Navas and his own son, Luca, before Courtois was eventually signed from Chelsea in 2018.

Coaching staff reports on Lunin had been negative over the 2022-23 season, calling for the signing of a goalkeeper in the summer even before Courtois’s ACL injury before the season started. There had been talks about the possible signing of David Soria from Getafe, although this did not amount to anything.

Arrizabalaga arrived on August 14 and was given his first chance in the Madrid goal later that month, in their third La Liga game of the season against Celta Vigo. The Spaniard started 13 games in a row but then suffered a muscle injury in November that kept him out for four matches until the visit of Granada to the Bernabeu at the start of December.

Ancelotti had said that “if Kepa is well, he will play against Granada”, but he was benched for that game and the following one against Real Betis. Arrizabalaga and Lunin have alternated since then, playing four and three games respectively.

Throughout this time, Ancelotti’s messaging has been unclear. On December 8, he told the media that “it could be that I will rotate the goalkeepers in the next few weeks” and nine days later he reiterated that, saying: “Lunin is one of the two starting goalkeepers in the team and the other one is called Kepa.”

But there was another U-turn on December 20 when Ancelotti said: “I don’t have the idea of rotating goalkeepers. Kepa will play tomorrow and then I will choose one of the two.” He kept up the suspense when Madrid returned from La Liga’s winter break: “I haven’t made my decision because they both make me doubt.”

Using expected goals on target (xGOT), a metric that takes into account shot placement and angle, we can see Arrizabalaga and Lunin are preventing more goals than would be expected from an average La Liga goalkeeper. As the shotmaps below show, Arrizabalaga has conceded 11 goals from an ‘xGOT conceded’ figure of 13…

… compared to Lunin’s six goals from an xGOT conceded of 10. Lunin has consistently overperformed this ‘goals prevented’ figure over his career.

But the two keepers are different stylistically. Lunin comes off his line much more than Arrizabalaga, claiming 9.6 per cent of crosses into the area in La Liga this season compared to 1.5 per cent for the Chelsea loanee (two of 132). Arrizabalaga has often looked shaky in the air — such as for Antonio Rudiger’s own goal in the Supercopa semi-final against Atletico.

Arrizabalaga vs Lunin this season (all comps)

Kepa ArrizabalagaAndriy Lunin

17

Games played

11

16

Goals conceded

7

13.95

xGoT conceded

11.31

71.9

Save percentage

81.1

0.3

Catches per 90

1.1

0.2

Punches per 90

0.4

24.2

Successful passes per 90

19.3

It can’t help that both keepers have had to follow the saga through Ancelotti’s words to the press more than to each of them individually. Sources within the coaching staff, who asked to remain anonymous as they did not have permission to comment, said no firm decision on the position has been made for the rest of the season and that they are taking things one step at a time.

Ancelotti and his team recognise that Lunin has improved and is doing well, but they also stress that Arrizabalaga is a great goalkeeper and that he will be important over the next few months. They have played down his poor performance against Atletico and emphasised how important his footwork is in terms of building from the back.

Arrizabalaga and Lunin’s contractual situations are not expected to be a decisive element. Madrid know that signing the Spaniard in the summer, for whom they do not have an option to buy, is highly unlikely given Chelsea would ask for around €20million (£17.2m; $21.7m), a figure the club would not pay for a backup goalkeeper.

Meanwhile, sources close to Lunin — who has a contract until 2025 — say the Ukrainian wants to renew his deal but still has no offer on the table from Madrid.

For now, the battle to be No 1 continues.

(Top photo: Irina R. Hipolito/Europa Press via Getty Images)