White Christmas forecast 2023 gets a last-minute update. Here’s where snow is expected.

Dreams of a white Christmas are being shattered for most of us, as the nation could see its least-snowy Christmas Day in modern recordkeeping. But a last-minute snowstorm will likely make those dreams come true for some folks.

“Some people will get their dream, their wish, and get a white Christmas right at the last minute,” said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental Research. “But most of the country will have a brown Christmas.”

How brown? As of Friday Dec. 22, only 13.2% of the contiguous U.S. was snow-covered, according to the National Weather Service. If that figure holds or declines, the country would have the least snow cover on Christmas Day since accurate records began 20 years ago.

The weather service also doesn’t predict a white Christmas for much of the nation. But on the bright side, “At least the weather is favorable for most people who have plans to travel this year,” the service wrote in its holiday forecast.

What’s causing this unusual warmth?

Why so warm? “Most of it’s a product of El Niño,” AccuWeather meteorologist Tom Kines told USA TODAY, referring to the troublesome climate pattern that’s marked by unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

And overall, climate change is also playing a role in diminishing Christmas snow, Cohen added. “Certainly, the globe is warming. Winters are getting shorter. Overall, they’re getting warmer,” he said.

Where will there be snow for Christmas?

Folks in portions of the western and central U.S., in a swath of states from northern Arizona to the Dakotas, are likely to wake up to a snow-covered landscape on Christmas morning. This will be thanks to a weekend winter storm that’s still developing as of Friday.

“Santa seems to have decided the people in the Rockies and High Plains will be on the nice list and will get a white Christmas this year,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

The largest city expected to be affected by the storm is Denver, which could see 2-4 inches of snow, the weather service said. This could potentially impact travel at Denver International Airport, a key hub.

Probability of a white Christmas in 2023: If you’re east of the Mississippi River, your chances for a white Christmas are very low.

What exactly is a white Christmas?

The National Weather Service defines a white Christmas as having 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of Dec. 25.

It need not snow on Dec. 25 to fit the weather service’s definition of a white Christmas, but some flurries would certainly help put folks in the holiday spirit.

Contributing: The Associated Press

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: White Christmas forecast 2023: Who will see snow?