Where Did It All Go Wrong for the Defending Champion Los Angeles Lakers?

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The defending champion Los Angeles Lakers are out of the 2021 postseason after three straight losses to the Phoenix Suns.

On Thursday, they fell behind by 29 points in the first half of Game 6. And though L.A. showed some fight in the second half, Phoenix never truly seemed to lose control en route to a 113-100 victory.

Now, just under eight months after winning the 2020 Finals, LeBron James has lost a Round 1 series for the first time, and the Lakers’ title defense is already in need of a postmortem.

The injured groin of Anthony Davis (which limited his availability in each of the last three games) certainly played a role in the outcome, but the Suns often looked like the more complete team.

And with several organizations around the league boasting younger and arguably deeper rosters, it’s fair to wonder about L.A.’s prospects for a 2022 championship.

How did the Lakers get to this point so quickly? Where did it all go wrong? There really isn’t one answer.

Possible Offseason Missteps

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Following the bulk of the 2020 offseason, analysts were understandably high on what the defending champions did.

They lost a number of valuable contributors from the previous run, including Danny Green, Rajon Rondo, JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard. But those losses were seemingly addressed (and then some) with more dynamic offensive players.

In theory, Marc Gasol’s passing and outside shooting would make more sense next to Anthony Davis than the old-school, physical presences of Howard and McGee. Not having Green’s three-and-D prowess would hurt, but Schroder brought more off-the-bounce pop. Montrezl Harrell would seemingly be able to dominate second unit bigs. And Wesley Matthews could replace some of what Green provided.

“[Gasol] and James are going to conduct symphonies on offense, and though he’s aging, Gasol remains one of the sturdiest low-post defenders in the league,” Grant Hughes wrote for Bleacher Report. “The champs got better in virtually every facet. So much for post-title attrition.”

At various points throughout the season, all of the above looked to be true. But it never came together all at once. Despite what seemed to be multiple offensive upgrades, L.A. finished the season at 23rd in points per 100 possessions.

Of course, that can be blamed in large part on significant injuries to LeBron and AD (more on that later), but most of those new additions took individual steps back with the Lakers.

Harrell, Schroder and Matthews all had worse marks in box plus/minus (BPM “…is a basketball box score-based metric that estimates a basketball player’s contribution to the team when that player is on the court,” according to Basketball Reference) than they did last season. And though Gasol improved in that catch-all, he found himself out of the rotation by the time Andre Drummond was signed.

Hindsight is, once again, 20/20, but forfeiting the bruising, physical style of the championship squad for a bit more offense may not have been the right call.

Passing on Kyle Lowry

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If those moves did indeed take L.A. in the wrong direction, it had a chance at a potential course correction around the trade deadline.

The Athletic’s Jovan Buha and Bill Oram detailed the Lakers’ shot at Toronto Raptors legend Kyle Lowry:

“Multiple sources told The Athletic that the Lakers and Raptors discussed a trade that would have sent both members of Los Angeles’ starting backcourt, Dennis Schroder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and likely some draft compensation to Toronto for Lowry. Throughout Thursday morning, sources said, the sticking point was the inclusion of Talen Horton-Tucker.

“The same sources said that Rob Pelinka, the Lakers’ vice president of basketball operations, insisted that price was too high for the 35-year-old Lowry, and that he was not willing to trade Horton-Tucker, the 20-year-old combo guard who has emerged as a valuable rotation player for the Lakers in his second season.”

Even now, that price still feels high. Lowry was on an expiring contract. If he lived up to the asking price, re-signing him may have been costly, and he’ll turn 36 next season.

But it was tough to watch the Lakers’ performance this postseason without thinking that Lowry could’ve helped.

Despite his advancing years, Lowry averaged 17.2 points and 7.3 assists while shooting 39.6 percent from three this season. His ability to space the floor would’ve created more room for LeBron’s drives, and his experience playing alongside ball-dominant wings like DeMar DeRozan and Kawhi Leonard would’ve made his adjustment to L.A.’s system fairly straightforward.

Of course, Lowry’s durability was an issue this season. He only appeared in 46 games, but that may have had a little to do with a not-so-stealthy tank job in the second half of the campaign.

Giving up that much depth and an intriguing young player for someone who’s likely in the twilight of his career would’ve been a tough pill to swallow, but lineups featuring LeBron, Davis and Lowry would’ve had a lofty ceiling, regardless of who the other two players were.

The Andre Drummond Debacle

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Allow me a little liberty with the classic Ian Malcolm line from Jurassic Park.

“Your [executives] were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, that they didn’t stop to think if they should.”

Yes, when Andre Drummond, a 27-year-old two-time All-Star, was just sort of floating there in the buyout market, it’s hard not to go for it. The contract he signed with the Lakers was for the minimum.

But signing a big man with that kind of cachet meant committing some playing time to him. And switching from a Cleveland Cavaliers jersey to the Lakers’ purple and gold didn’t make him look any more suited for the modern game.

Drummond used 2.4 post-up possessions per game as a Laker, and his 0.82 points per post-up possession ranked in the 27th percentile. Over the entire season, the 6’10” Drummond somehow shot just 50.0 percent on twos.

Theoretically, adding Drummond should’ve replaced some of the physicality that was lost without Howard and McGee, but he’s still at a point in his career where he may be trying to do a bit more than he should.

Maximizing the rest of his career will probably require a realization that Drummond should be more of a pure rim-runner like Tyson Chandler or Rudy Gobert. His efficiency there was terrible too, but the fact that he averaged fewer roll man possessions than post ups is even more alarming.

On a team like the Lakers, anything that’s not a spoon-fed dunk or a putback for Drummond feels like a possession that would’ve been better spent by LeBron or AD.

And trying to make Drummond fit all the way up until Game 6 of the first-round series against the Suns, when he was finally benched for Gasol, was maybe the most obvious misstep by the defending champs.

Injuries Galore

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All of this discussion is fair game. When a team with the expectations of this Lakers squad goes down in the first round, questions abound. But there’s also a very legitimate excuse.

L.A. finished seventh in the West because AD missed 36 games, and LeBron missed 27. If any team in the West had their top two players out for that amount of time, it would’ve similarly cratered.

And though both were back in time for the postseason, neither looked right. After returning from a sprained ankle, LeBron wasn’t as explosive vertically or laterally as we’re used to seeing. And a new groin injury for Davis knocked him out of three separate games (including all of Game 5).

If the front office wanted to chalk up this season’s failure to the injuries, it’d be within its rights. For a team like the Lakers, though, that answer might not satisfy many of its passionate fans.

Where Do They Go From Here?

As the Lakers head to the 2021 offseason, seemingly in decline, a handful of other teams around the league are headed in the other direction.

If L.A. can stay healthy in 2021-22, it figures to be in contention, but that’s far from a given.

LeBron will turn 37 next season. For the first time in his career, he may be showing the signs of age that eventually catch up to every professional athlete. He can adjust his game to a more ground-bound, pass-heavy approach to prolong his chance at winning, but Father Time is, as they say, undefeated.

As for Davis, his durability may be in question for the rest of his career. He’s played in just over three quarters of his teams’ games since he entered the league, but he has a long and varied injury history. And it’s fair to wonder about his legitimacy as the heir apparent to LeBron’s alpha role.

Over his two regular and postseasons in L.A., the Lakers are minus-2.1 points per 100 possessions when AD plays without LeBron.

They likely need another high-impact player to compete with rising challengers in the East and West, but their commitments for 2021-22 already outpace the projected salary cap.

It will be tricky—to put it mildly—to find avenues for meaningful improvement. Ultimately, L.A. contending for more titles in the near future probably still depends on LeBron more than anything else.

Based on everything he’s shown in a nearly-two-decades-long career, defying Father Time in his final act wouldn’t be surprising.