September 21, 2024

What will Zack Wheeler’s return mean for Bailey Falter, Noah Syndergaard and Phillies pitching staff?

Wheeler #Wheeler

ATLANTA — When the Phillies stepped into this ballpark, they knew that three weeks from Friday they could be back here for the franchise’s first postseason games in 11 years. Everyone knows the stakes right now. They can taste it. These two rivals have not opposed one another in the postseason since 1993. The Braves are the defending champions.

It would be an electric atmosphere to mark the Phillies’ return to meaningful October baseball.

“The most important thing is just trying to make it there right now,” Kyle Schwarber said after a deflating 7-2 Phillies loss. “Obviously, it was a good taste tonight if we were to be here. You saw a sold-out crowd. But we want to get there. We’re going to do anything we can to get there.”

Getting there is one thing; the Phillies occupy a strong position relative to their competition — San Diego and Milwaukee — for the last two wild cards. The Phillies would like to do better than just getting there. That will require strong starting pitching because October baseball is all about pitching. It’s why Ranger Suárez’s six solid innings Friday were about as important as Seranthony Domínguez’s meltdown.

The Phillies, for now, are not willing to let one bad outing (a very bad outing) outweigh months of dominant work from Domínguez.

But for weeks, there has been mounting concern about Suárez. The Phillies need him because, in a best-of-three series, he is probably their third starter. He allowed one run against Atlanta. It was his best start in a month.

“It’s a confidence boost, for sure,” Suárez said through an interpreter. “But I honestly don’t try to think about it too much.”

Hours before Suárez embraced the big-game atmosphere, Zack Wheeler stood on the mound at Truist Park and pitched to some teammates with no one in the stands. The Phillies have been without Wheeler for longer than they had anticipated, but after his simulated game Friday afternoon, they were willing to tentatively schedule him for a start Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park against the Blue Jays. Wheeler, when right, is the club’s best starter. Maybe the Phillies could get to the postseason without Wheeler. They cannot advance without him.

Wheeler simulated two innings. His fastball was 96 to 98 mph, according to Rob Thomson.

“It was really encouraging,” the interim manager said.

If Wheeler pitches Wednesday, he would then start Sept. 27 at Wrigley Field followed by one more start Oct. 2 in Washington. That would put him on regular rest to start Game 1 of the wild-card series on Oct. 7 if the Phillies wanted.

“I haven’t even thought about it,” said Wheeler, whose last start was on Aug. 20. “I just want to make it to the playoffs. I’ve never been.”

Wheeler was hurt when his Mets team soared to the World Series in 2015. He wanted to attend the games. “I wasn’t allowed to,” Wheeler said. So, he watched it on TV from home. He’s never been in a ballpark for a big-league postseason game.

The first step is a shortened start Wednesday against Toronto. It might be three innings, depending on his pitch count. Both pitcher and team are convinced three starts are enough to have Wheeler where he needs to be entering the postseason.

“We think so,” Thomson said.

“As long as I’m to 90 pitches or seven innings by the time the playoffs roll around,” Wheeler said, “we’ll be fine.”

Wheeler’s return creates a fascinating dynamic for the pitching staff as a whole. Bailey Falter, who is scheduled to start Sunday, has a 2.52 ERA in his last six starts. The Phillies are 6-0 in those games. Falter is not overpowering and many of his outings have come against inferior offenses. But the Phillies are intrigued. Good work should be rewarded, too.

Maybe it forces the Phillies to think about Noah Syndergaard’s place in all of this. If the postseason were to begin today, it is difficult to imagine Syndergaard would have a spot on the roster for a best-of-three series. He’s made eight starts with the Phillies, all against teams with losing records, and has a 4.79 ERA with 58 hits allowed in 47 innings.

His next start would come against Atlanta on Thursday to open a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies could skip him and keep everyone on regular rest if they wanted. Thomson was not willing to divulge the pitching plans — not until Wheeler was confirmed for his return — but there are various scenarios to consider.

There is a lot at play. The Phillies will need a piggyback partner for Wheeler at least once and maybe twice. The only pitcher who can give them length in the bullpen is Nick Nelson. Maybe Zach Eflin could do a two- or three-inning stint, but the Phillies might have different ideas for him. (Eflin could start Sunday’s series finale in Atlanta as an opener for Falter.) If the Phillies wanted to keep Falter in the rotation, they could move Syndergaard to a bullpen role.

Someone will have to come off the roster to make space for Wheeler. Is it Syndergaard? That would require the front office to swallow some pride less than two months after trading for Syndergaard. Both Sam Coonrod and Andrew Bellatti have minor-league options and could be demoted, but that would effectively end their time in the majors this season because they would have to spend at least 15 days in the minors.

These are good problems. In previous seasons, the Phillies have run out of capable pitchers. They were a team built around its high-priced lineup, but scoring is harder in October. The Phillies will face good pitching every night. Good pitching typically beats good hitting. They made Max Fried, a good pitcher, throw 110 pitches Friday night. It was good hitting. But it resulted in only two runs.

Schwarber smacked his 39th homer to establish a career-best. It didn’t mean much to him afterward.

“Not really,” he said. “I mean, I want to see where we’re at at the end of the year. Cool thing, put it in the cap, but I think the important thing is trying to help the team every single day. Right? We’re pushing here.”

They are. It’s hard to see through the clouds sometimes. Getting there remains a good bet. After that? The pitching will decide it. There cannot be nights like Friday.

“Anytime you lose a game like that, it’s tough,” Thomson said. “But these guys know what’s ahead of them and they’re going to bounce back just like they have all year.”

(Top photo of Zack Wheeler: Dan Hamilton / USA Today)

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