What we know about Matt Murray trade to Maple Leafs from Senators

The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired goalie Matt Murray, a 2023 third-round pick and a 2024 seventh-round pick from the Ottawa Senators on Monday. Ottawa will receive future considerations from Toronto as part of the deal.

Murray, 28, has two years remaining on his contract, at a cap hit of $6.25 million. Ottawa will retain 25 percent of Murray’s salary. He posted a 5-12-2 record with a 3.05 goals against average and .906 save percentage in only 20 games last season. Prior to Ottawa, Murray played for the Pittsburgh Penguins for five seasons, winning back-to-back Stanley Cup titles in 2016 and 2017.

The Maple Leafs also traded goalie Petr Mrazek and the No. 25 pick to the Chicago Blackhawks for the No. 38 selection in the 2022 NHL Draft last week. The Leafs’ starting goaltender in 2021-22, Jack Campbell, is an unrestricted free agent.

How did this move come about and what does it mean for both franchises? Ian Mendes and Josh Kloke break it all down.

Why did Leafs make this move now?

As the goalie carousel continues this offseason, the Leafs likely didn’t want to be left without someone between the pipes as free agency approaches and unrestricted free agents are left to choose their destinations for the future. That likely led to at least some of the urgency behind the deal from Toronto’s part.

Murray hasn’t exactly lived up to his $6.25-million cap hit the last two seasons, posting an .893 save percentage through 27 games in 2020-21 and a .906 save percentage through 20 games in 2021-22. But given that there’s a familiarity there with Murray and Sheldon Keefe, Leafs head coach, and Kyle Dubas, Leafs general manager, from their time together with the Soo Greyhounds in the OHL, the Leafs probably felt confident enough to make this deal and hope Murray can bounce back in 2022-23.

Is Murray the answer to Leafs’ No. 1 goalie search?

That remains to be seen. It’s entirely possible the Leafs sign another goalie who will take the lion’s share of starts in 2022-23 once free agency opens on Wednesday. But a true tandem also feels likely, and that wouldn’t leave Murray as a clear cut No. 1. The Leafs probably wanted former goalie Petr Mrazek to play more than the 20 games he did last season, for example, and have a tandem last season. Rolling out a tandem of goalies throughout the regular season could ensure that the Leafs have two goalies who are largely rested as the playoffs approach next spring.

We’ll see what happens over the coming days and weeks. The Leafs could very well have their own data that suggests Murray can handle the bulk of the starts, but given what we’ve seen him from recently, relying solely on Murray as a No. 1 goalie feels like at the very least a risky proposition for a Leafs team that wants to win a Stanley Cup.

What does this mean for Jack Campbell’s future with Leafs?

Given what Campbell could likely command in free agency as one of the few starters available, the odds of him returning to the Leafs have felt low for a few weeks now.

It’s possible Campbell doesn’t like what he’s offered when free agency opens on Wednesday and both Campbell and the Leafs circle back to each other.

But it doesn’t sound like discussions between the team and the player have been all that fruitful as of late.

The door might not be completely slammed on Campbell returning to Toronto, but it’s inching ever so close to shutting with the signing of Murray.

How does this move impact the Leafs cap?

Obviously getting Murray at 50 percent of his salary would have improved the Leafs outlook for the cap this season.

Perhaps he will have a strong two seasons with the Leafs, but given his recent performances, it’s fair to wonder if Murray will live up to the a $4.68 million cap hit he’ll have through 2024 with the Leafs.

Why did the Senators move on from Murray?

When the Senators traded for Murray and handed him a four-year, $25 million contract in the fall of 2020, they truly believed he would provide a stable presence inside their crease. But after two seasons, Murray started just 45 out of a possible 138 regular season games for Ottawa — or just 33 percent of their games.

At his season-ending press conference, Ottawa head coach D.J. Smith was somewhat cryptic about his assessment of Murray’s time with the Senators.

“We brought him in a couple of years ago to be the starting goalie and he’s just not available most nights,” Smith said. “Not to his fault, injuries and sickness. He’s just unavailable.”

Anton Forsberg assumed the No. 1 goaltending job in Ottawa last season and once the Senators inked him to a three-year contract extension, it felt like the writing was on the wall for Murray. The Senators talked about being comfortable coming into camp with three goaltenders under NHL contracts, but in reality, that was never going to happen.

Assessing the return for Ottawa?

When the Senators were considering the idea of moving Murray, it was all about mitigating the losses.

I don’t think there was a scenario on the table where the Senators really felt like they could get a valuable asset in return for Murray.

And to Pierre Dorion’s credit, most Ottawa fans will think he came out fairly well in this deal having only retained 25 per cent of Murray’s salary — while not adding any roster players or prospects as a sweetener.

If the Senators were going with the buyout route with Murray, it would have cost them $10 million to buyout two-thirds remaining on his deal.

This way, they’re only on the hook for $3.75 million.

All things considered, I suspect a lot of Ottawa fans will be happy with this turn of events.

Where does this leave the Senators in goal?

At this point, it’s fair to assume that Anton Forsberg will be the Senators opening night goalie and No. 1 starter to begin next season.

Forsberg flourished at times last season and finished with 22-17-4 record with a .917 save percentage. He is locked into a three-year deal that comes with a very reasonable $2.75 million cap hit. If he can continue that level of success for the duration of the contract, it will be a bargain for Ottawa moving forward.

The wild card in this equation is Filip Gustavsson. When the Senators opted to protect Gustavsson in the Seattle expansion draft last summer, he was coming off a sparkling stretch in which he posted a .933 save percentage in nine appearances to cap off the 2020-21 season.

But last year, the 24-year-old struggled, posting only five wins in 16 starts with an .892 save percentage. He’s on a one-way contract for next season, but there might be a scenario where Ottawa looks at adding some insurance in the crease before the season begins.

(Top photo: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports)