What this offseason could mean for the price of a Salvador Perez contract extension

Jan. 31—Catchers remained relevant if not paramount in free-agent topics of discussion throughout this winter in Major League Baseball, from James McCann finding a new home in New York to J.T. Realmuto’s decision to stay in Philadelphia to Yadier Molina seemingly undecided about his future all together.

If the ripple effects of the catching market extend to next offseason, it could be significant for the Kansas City Royals when franchise cornerstone Salvador Perez reaches the end of his current contract.

To be clear, it’s all together reasonable to think the sides will quietly get together away from prying eyes and reach an agreement to keep Perez in the fold without very much consternation.

Perez said on Friday that he hadn’t had talks with the front office about the future or an extension. His focus has been on preparation for 2021, but he’s open to having that conversation this spring, during the season or waiting until after the season.

“I want to stay here,” Perez said. “Everybody knows that.”

But how might the free-agent catcher carousel of this offseason factor in?

In one respect, this offseason doesn’t change the way a small market franchise like the Royals can approach trying to keep a homegrown star player like Perez in the fold.

In another respect, the fact that Realmuto’s deal didn’t break the bank may be a sign that the catchers market hasn’t moved significantly. Early on, some thought Realmuto might command a paradigm-shifting $200 million deal.

A unique situation

Financially, the Royals aren’t going to win most bidding wars if another team decides to spend without restraint.

Big dollar figures eventually lured stars Lorenzo Cain to Milwaukee and Eric Hosmer to San Diego. Others like Mike Moustakas and Wade Davis were traded to recoup some value before they earned big contracts elsewhere.

The biggest contract given in franchise history went to Alex Gordon, a four-year, $72 million contract. A deal that Gordon likely could have eclipsed if he wanted to leave Kansas City.

Instead, he remained a Royal for his entire career and experienced an emotional farewell last season.

Perez spoke to reporters on a video conference on Friday, a framed and signed Gordon jersey arm’s reach away.

“The team signed me when I was 16 years old,” Perez said. “The way I’m still there makes me happy. Hopefully, I can retire in Kansas City, but you never know.”

Perez’s tenure has included six All-Star honors, five Gold Glove awards, three Silver Slugger Awards, two World Series appearances, one World Series championship and one World Series MVP.

Not only has Perez become a fan favorite, but he enjoyed success with the Royals, but his developed strong ties to the franchise and fan base.

He practically grew up in the organization. He signed out of Venezuela when he was 16 and he’ll turn 31 in May.

Perez became a naturalized U.S. citizen in a ceremony in front of fans, teammates, coaches, the front office and ownership at Royals FanFest last year.

During last spring’s pandemic lockdown, two of the people he still saw on a regular basis in Miami were Royals coaches Pedro Grifol and Mike Tosar.

This summer, Perez bounced back from elbow surgery and having missed the entire 2019 season to show he can still be considered one of the top two-way players at the position in the majors in a shortened 2020 season.

“He’s got a lot of years left in him too,” Royals general manager Dayton Moore said in October. “As long as he continues to have that innocence about him as a player, he’s just going to continue to do special things. The fact that he is a special player, he’s going to exceed some of the Father Time issues for that position because he’s committed.”

Earlier this offseason, Moore outlined about the club’s need to maximize the offensive contributions out of premium defensive positions catcher, shortstop and center field. Of those three positions, two likely need to be in the top half of the batting order for the Royals to be at their best.

Perez’s ability to provide a middle-of-the-order bat as well as elite defense makes him more valuable to the Royals, perhaps more so than another club with more financial means.

Is Realmuto a level above?

No two players or situations line up exactly the same, so comparisons often fall short. At the same time, baseball leans heavily on comparison whether in scouting or in the arbitration process. Comparison aids in providing context.

Realmuto reportedly agreed to a new deal to remain with the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday worth $115.5 million over five years.

Realmuto, who turns 30 in March, has been considered by some pundits as baseball’s best all-around catcher. His resume includes two Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers and two All-Star selections.

Realmuto made his debut in 2014, and he has slashed .278/.328/.455 with a home run percentage of 3.2%, a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 6.1%. Realmuto has thrown out 36% of base stealers, logged a WAR of 10.4 and has minus-4 total defensive runs saved above average as a catcher.

Perez’s career slash line is .269/.300/.449 with home run percentage of 3.9%, a strikeout rate of 16.3% and a walk rate of 3.4%. Perez has thrown out 36% of base stealers, racked up a 10.9 WAR and has 29 total defensive runs saved above average as a catcher.

Perez has a bigger frame at 6-foot-3 and 250 pounds, and he has logged more games and innings in the majors than the 6-foot-1, 212-pound Realmuto.

In 2020, Perez spent time on the injured list with an eye ailment, but played in 37 games and slashed .333/.353/.633 with 11 home runs and 32 RBIs. He garnered his third Silver Slugger Award and earned All-MLB First Team honors as selected by MLB.com.

Perez tied Realmuto for the most home runs in the majors as a catcher this season, and Perez led all catchers (minimum 100 at-bats) in batting average (.348), slugging percentage (.681) and OPS (1.048) — not including at-bats playing another position or serving as designated hitter.

A year older and with more wear and tear on his body, Perez’s production still compares well to Realmuto’s.

Making a deal

When the Royals signed Perez to his previous extension in 2016, they effectively ripped up the remainder of a five-year, $7 million deal that included three additional options that could have kept him under club control through 2019.

Instead, Perez signed a five-year, $52.5 million agreement that went into effect after the 2017 season.

“This was a really unique negotiation, I think for both of the sides,” Perez’s agent Rick Thurman said at the time. “There’s a lot of teams that may not have done this.”

Time will tell if any residual goodwill from that negotiation will aid in the next extension talks.

Figuring out what a Perez deal might look like is highly speculative, but Moore has said the payroll budgeting was being looked at as a three-year increment per CEO and chairman John Sherman.

It’s not clear exactly how wed they’ll be to that three-year cycle, but if you stay with the three-year view then you could view last year was the first year of the current three-year cycle.

Notably, the top two free agent additions Carlos Santana and Mike Minor were signed to two-year contracts. That would carry them through the end of one three-year period.

If you maintain that view of every three years as a cycle, a four-year deal for Perez starting after this season would carry through the end of current cycle and through the next full three-year cycle.

Again, it’s not clear how the negotiations would/could play out or what may be optimal for each side. But a four-year deal for Perez would bring him through his age 35 season.

Molina had previously been viewed as the gold standard for catchers. Molina’s most recent contract paid him a base salary of $20 million per year for the last three seasons at ages 35, 36 and 37 (at the start of the season).

Realmuto’s latest deal reportedly comes with an average annual value of $23.1 million, a record for catchers and just slightly surpassing Joe Mauer’s previous record.

If Perez got in the $20 million per year neighborhood for four years or more — who knows how option years and/or a signing bonus may factor into a deal — it would surpass Gordon’s deal as the largest in franchise history and put Perez among the top echelon of catchers in the game as far as AAV.

Of course, not knowing what sorts of figures the sides will bring to the negotiating table is only part of the unknown. Revenue losses, an unsettled public health situation and a looming rumble between the players union and ownership make for a lot of uncertainty.

Understandably, a record-breaking extension may not top the to-do list in the immediate future.