What the Maple Leafs’ Kyle Dubas said and what it meant ahead of the NHL Draft

MONTREAL — Among the questions peppered to Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas on the eve of the draft was one regarding his job security following the best regular season in franchise history but another first-round exit.

“Yeah, I think it’s a fair question,” he said Wednesday. “I feel (my job is) on the line every year and I’m judged at the end of every season. I don’t necessarily feel there’s more of a pressure (now). It is a very important thing for me personally to help deliver for the organization.”

That job is never busier or more consequential than now — in the heat of the offseason.

So where do things stand on a variety of crucial fronts — with pending free agents, trade possibilities, cap space and the draft?

Let’s take a closer look at what the GM of the Leafs had to say before the party got started.

Rasmus Sandin’s future with the Leafs

Dubas tried to be pretty definitive about Rasmus Sandin’s place in the big picture: “With Rasmus Sandin, and I put (him) and Timothy Liljegren in the same spot, they’re massive parts of our future. They’re significantly younger than the other full-time members of our defence core, and we need them to continue to take steps.”

In short, if there was any doubt, the Leafs hold Sandin in high esteem. Uncertainty lingers nonetheless.

Liljegren recently signed a two-year contract with the Leafs, solidifying his status within the organization. Sandin, however, remains unsigned for next season. Contract talks were expected to heat up this week, with a qualifying offer due for the 22-year-old by Monday. Can the Leafs get something done before then? Could an offer sheet be in the cards if not?

“If there’s going to be an offer sheet,” Dubas said, “the sooner the better so we can make our decision and move on.”

The Leafs would be in a very tough spot were some team to swoop in with an offer sheet. Cap space is that tight. The right offer — a two- or three-year deal, say, with a cap hit north of $2.1 million — might force the organization to accept the compensation and pivot. Or, keep Sandin and cut elsewhere.

Compensation is such that an offer sheet in that ballpark is a no-brainer for a team that wants to pluck Sandin. For a contract with a cap hit in the range of $2.1 million to $4.2 million, the price is only a second-round pick.

So, if they can’t come to terms on a new deal and an offer sheet is in the air, the Leafs might have to seriously consider dealing Sandin.

Maybe more interesting than Dubas’ big-picture assessment about Sandin’s fit was where the Leafs GM saw things moving, or needing to move, in the short term.

“In Rasmus’ case,” he said, “one of the major focuses is on trying to set him up to continue to be healthy all the way through the year and putting the proper resources into him to arm him to do that.”

The Leafs, it seems, are hoping Sandin can take his conditioning to another level in his second full NHL season.

Sandin missed the final 20 games of the regular season with a suspected leg injury, costing him a spot in the postseason lineup. He also missed four games earlier in the year after a knee-on-knee collision with Neal Pionk.

A little more bulk on his 178-pound frame probably wouldn’t hurt.

Sandin performed quite well when he was on the ice, driving play on the Leafs’ third pair and running the second power-play unit.

His role next season is almost certain to shift, though, with Mark Giordano sticking around. Sandin feels likely to slide over to the right side for the first time in the NHL, whether it’s in the top four — alongside, say, Jake Muzzin — or on that bottom pairing with Giordano. (Is it possible Giordano moves to his off side instead?)

It’s also fair to wonder if Giordano will remain in control of PP2.

All of that has likely led Sandin to wonder about where exactly he fits with the Leafs, hence, it seems, Dubas’ strong message of belief.

“Obviously, a supremely talented player, very competitive,” Dubas said. “We need him to continue to take the steps that we need for him to assert himself not only to an every-night player, which he largely had become before he was injured in Nashville, but to become a top player in our group, especially as our players age ahead of him.”

Muzzin is 33. T.J. Brodie is 32. Morgan Rielly is 28. Giordano is 38.

Sandin figures to play an essential role in the not-so-distant future if he sticks around.

Goalie search

Where do things stand with pending UFA Jack Campbell?

“We continue to speak to Jack,” Dubas said, referring to talks with Campbell’s agent, Kurt Overhardt. “Obviously, it’s no secret that goaltending is a priority for us. We’ll continue to speak with (him) and his people as we go through the coming week here.”

That seems like a polite way of saying that while the Leafs haven’t closed the door entirely on a Campbell return, they’re likely to pursue other options. The lack of substantive talks seems to suggests the organization is prepared to move in a different direction with their No. 1 goaltender. Never say never though, I guess.

Who that goalie, if it’s not Campbell, is going to be — Marc-Andre Fleury? Ville Husso? — is obviously the big question.

Dubas did what he could to defend Petr Mrazek when asked about the beleaguered goalie’s place within the organization moving forward.

“If I’m forecasting or betting on him, do I bet that he was the goalie he was last year in the 20 games, or do I bet he was the goalie he was for the 270 before, which was a .910 save percentage guy that can give his team a chance to win?” Dubas said. “I’d probably bet on the larger sample.”

That’s probably a tad generous. Mrazek was known for injuries and inconsistency before he came to Toronto. Dubas is also probably right that Mrazek more than likely ends up with a better save percentage next season than the .888 clip he ended up with last year.

The real question is whether next season comes with the Leafs.

Speaking of which …

Creating cap space

“It’s all gonna depend on what the situation is,” the Leafs GM said when asked about moving out roster players to create flexibility under the cap. “If we need to create cap space to improve our team, I think we know, based on the conversations we’ve had, that we would be able to move a lot of our players if needed for good value or move them along. I think we’re in a good spot that way.”

That suggests to me that the Leafs know who they can move, and for what, if the need to create more space arises. Mrazek feels like a must to go in some sort of cap-clearing transaction. At what cost, though? Might the front office move others (Alex Kerfoot? Muzzin?) if the opportunity to do something splashy arises?

Notable UFAs likely moving on

It’s unofficially official that the Ilya Mikheyev experience in Toronto is over. According to The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun, the Leafs have let opposing clubs know they’re open to moving Mikheyev’s rights ahead of free agency.

“You never want to totally close it off. We’ll see what happens,” Dubas said of Mikheyev returning to the Leafs. “If not, it’s been a great three years for him in Toronto, and it’s a great story for us of a player who came as a free agent and will look to cash in.”

Cash in elsewhere in this case.

As for Ilya Lyubushkin, another notable pending UFA, Dubas reiterated that the Leafs would like him back, but only at a price that makes sense based on the role the 28-year-old will play (i.e., 15-17 minutes). In other words, he’s probably out of their price range.

Marlies moving up?

Mikheyev’s departure, along with Jason Spezza’s retirement, the questionable NHL futures of Wayne Simmonds and Kyle Clifford, and Colin Blackwell’s free agency, means the Leafs have holes to fill at the bottom of their lineup.

Free agency is one route to filling them. Trades are another.

The Leafs could also leave at least one gig free for Joey Anderson, Nick Robertson or Alex Steeves to claim.

“We feel that there are some Marlies that can really push for those roles and that have come along,” Dubas said. “And that’s one thing that we’ve lacked in the past is having guys in those spots be able to really push and play the way we want them to down there. And now we feel like we have guys in that group. It was laid out very clearly to them in their exit meetings: ‘This is what we expect from you. This is what the opportunity is going to be. Now go and put the summer in that you need to come and take it.’”

Anderson got into five games for the Leafs last season. Robertson had a quiet 10-game showing (one goal, no assists), including stints in the top six. Steeves played three games.

Given that a fourth-line role will be most likely available, Anderson might be the favourite to jump up and claim a spot. His skill set suits an energy role at the bottom of the lineup. Or, perhaps Robertson forces his way onto the team at training camp, winning a spot somewhere in the forward group through his enthusiasm and the much higher potential he offers the team offensively.

We shall see.

First-round pick

After sitting it out last year, the Leafs will pick in the first round again (No. 25) on Thursday. If there was any doubt, that player won’t be selected based on NHL readiness. The long view wins the day.

Here’s Dubas: “I think, in the end, we need to look back five years from now and think that we picked the best player. To have a guy just jump in to say we got him for ($925,000) or lower, I don’t think that that’s the smartest thing for us. We want to make sure that we’re picking a player that when we look back on the draft five, 10 years from now, we unequivocally say with our pick we took the best player available regardless of whether they made the NHL at 23, 24 or 27.”

This is a big pick for the Leafs. They’re going to need more push from their prospect pool real soon.

After the first-rounder, the Leafs have picks in the third and seventh rounds.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing (or good thing). Quantity doesn’t always, or even often, equal quality at the draft. The Leafs had only three picks in 2021 and appear to have nailed one with Matthew Knies, a second-rounder.

More hits like that are going to be required.

Front office shuffling

Among the front office promotions announced earlier this week was Hayley Wickenheiser adding an assistant GM title. She’s had quite the rise within the organization.

“Just a massive impact that she makes every single day she’s in the facility,” Dubas raved, “especially in dealing with the players one-on-one in her role as the senior director of player development. And the impact when she’s around our Leafs during the year, the impact she’s able to make on them with her own experiences and how competitive she is about everything, it’s really quite remarkable. And it’s very rare you’re able to have someone who’s one of, if not the best, of all time at what they do to lend that guidance to our players and our staff.”

(Top photo of Kyle Dubas: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)