What it would take for Fred Upton to become House Speaker

Yes, it’s possible Fred Upton could become the next House Speaker.

But don’t hold your breath.

“It’s within the range of possible outcomes,” said John Clark, a political scientist at Western Michigan University. “But it’s a relatively unlikely outcome.”

Still, he said, “if this whole situation drags on longer and longer and longer, at some point, some of these unlikely alternatives seem more likely. But I don’t think we’re there yet.”

This “whole situation” is the unfolding drama in the U.S. House, where Republicans have deadlocked over electing a new House Speaker. In six rounds of voting over the past two days, U.S. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-California, has garnered more than 200 votes among his fellow Republicans, but he needs 218. The holdouts are 20 far-right Republicans who want various concessions and some of whom are adamant that they will not support McCarthy under any circumstances.

But if not McCarthy, than who?

Upton, who just retired after 36 years in Congress representing Southwest Michigan, has been suggested as a respected moderate Republican who could get to the 218 votes by getting support from Democrats.

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Under this scenario, Democrats along with a contingent of centrist Republicans would break the logjam by coalescing around Upton, who is well-known for his commitment to bipartisanship.

“It could eventually become the case that Democrats look at the possibilities and say, ‘Look, our guy is not going to become speaker. But of their guys, would we rather have someone who was just elected to Congress a couple years ago? Or do we want to have somebody that we kind of trust, even if we don’t always agree?’ And under those circumstances, might there be some movement towards someone the Democrats could rally around?” Clark said.

But getting Democrats to support that idea likely would require concessions that give the Democrats more power than normal for the minority party. It also would require some Republicans to agree to those concessions — and face the likely wrath of their GOP colleagues and constituents.

Indeed, just the threat of a such a coalition government could get the current holdouts to cave, thus scuttling any deal with the Democrats.

Yet another barrier: While Upton has said that becoming speaker is an “intriguing proposal,” he’s also made it clear that he supports McCarthy and has no desire to undermine him.

Clearly, Upton as speaker “is not the first or second or third option” for Republicans, Clark said. “Fred in the speakership would be a lot further down the line, and a number of things would have to transpire between now and that.”

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It might become more palatable if the deadlock continues for days, and demands by the 20 holdouts seem too extreme. At some point, Clark said, it’s possible “other folks at the other end of the Republican Party who are going to say, ‘Wait a minute, why are they the ones who are the deciders? They’re 10% of Republicans. How come that 10% gets to decide for the rest of us?’

“And that’s the point where there’s a possibility for a window to open for someone like Fred, if the relatively more moderate Republicans see things drifting too far” in the direction of the far-right Freedom Caucus, Clark said.

“I still think the most likely outcome is that some additional compromises will be made and Kevin McCarthy becomes speaker,” he said. “I think the next most likely thing is that if this drags on indefinitely, Kevin McCarthy doesn’t become speaker but it’s somebody relatively high up in the leadership,” such as Republican Whip Steve Scalise.

That said, Clark said that Upton has the chops to be speaker, although he would be a different kind of leader.

“I think Fred would approach the speakership in the most positive possible way,” he said. “But he certainly wouldn’t be a speaker in the way we’ve come to expect speakers to behave, like Jim Wright for Democrats in the 1980s or Newt Gingrich in the 1990s or Nancy Pelosi, where you really are a leader of the party. I don’t think Fred would be that kind of leader because the Republican Party right now isn’t a party that wants a leader, at least collectively, not enough of them.

“I think Fred is interested in solving problems and making the institution of Congress work effectively,” Clark said. “I think he would be fair, in a way that probably would irritate fellow Republicans. … He would be a different kind of speaker — and that’s partly what this rump faction wants, is a different kind of speaker. But I don’t think they’d want that different kind of speaker to be Fred.”

It’s also not clear House Democrats have any interest helping Republicans get out of their current dilemma, Clark said.

“The Republicans are the majority party. The Republicans have responsibility for governing. They got to figure it out,” Clark said. “And at this point at least, the Democrats don’t have a role to play.”

Also at this point, House Democrats are reaping the benefits of the Republican deadlock, by looking more unified in comparison, Clark said. Plus, Democrats could benefit from some of the concessions the holdouts are seeking, such as making it easier to bring a bill to the House floor for vote.

“If this group of 20 gets their way on procedural rules, it actually gives Democrats more room to help Joe Biden accomplish his agenda,” Clark said. “That’s because it will give them the opportunity make amendments on the floor, give them the opportunity to call out bills stuck in committee. It gives them the opportunity to get things moving.”

The current deadlock also suggests that the lack of unity within the Republican caucus will make the GOP majority less effective, Clark said.

“Righty now, the (House Republicans) don’t have a consistent agenda,” he said. “They don’t know what they want to do with the power they’ve now achieved. What’s happening now is not a good sign that they’re going to be able to do anything.”

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