What are the odds Tom Brady signs with the Houston Texans?

The 2022 NFC wild-card may be the last time Tom Brady is in a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform.

With the Buccaneers’ decline after having a Super Bowl window open with Brady under center come the salary cap hits. According to Michael Ginnitti from Spotrac, one of those big hits is Brady himself with a $35.1 million dead money hit that triggers automatically on March 15 if Brady and the Bucs don’t reach a new deal.

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If Brady wants to keep playing, he will be one of the most sought after free agents.

According to Julian Edlow from DraftKings, the Houston Texans are tied with the Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, and the Green Bay Packers for having the 15th-best odds to land Brady in free agency.

There is some organizational familiarity with general manager Nick Caserio, who worked in a variety of roles in the scouting, personnel, and coaching staff throughout Brady’s tenure as the New England Patriots’ starting quarterback from 2001-19. Houston even has a couple of Brady’s former targets from New England in wideouts Phillip Dorsett and Brandin Cooks. Tight end O.J. Howard would also get another chance to forge a meaningful connection with Brady that may have been stunted with the arrival of Rob Gronkowski in Tampa Bay.

However, what the Buccaneers had in 2020 that the Texans aren’t anywhere near having in 2023 is a veteran coaching staff. Bruce Arians had the Buccaneers finishing 7-9 despite quarterback Jameis Winston throwing a league-leading 30 interceptions. Part of the reason Tampa Bay even hovered near .500 was because of the defense led by Todd Bowles. Tampa Bay just needed a quarterback.

As evidenced by Houston’s 3-13-1 finish, they need more than help under center. Brady may as well stay in Tampa than to come to Houston and waste his 24th season trying to drag the Texans back to relevance.