What are the Bears chances of landing the No. 1 pick again in 2024?

© Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports The Bears’ biggest position need heading into free agency was the defensive line, where Justin Jones was the only anticipated starter. You could even argue Chicago could find an entire new starting D-line. So the fact that the only move has been the addition of defensive end DeMarcus Walker naturally has fans worried. Especially with the importance of finding a disruptive 3-technique to anchor the defensive line. Poles understands all of that. But he didn’t sound worries at the slightest. He was quick to remind everyone that we’re just a few days into free agency, where more moves are on the way — not to mention the NFL draft, where it feels almost certain that the Bears will take a defensive lineman with one of those first picks. “I know right now, we get the sense of ‘we gotta fix everything right now,’” Poles said. “But I feel comfortable between the rest of free agency, we’re only two days into it, as well as the draft, that we can get that group as good as we possibly can.”

The Chicago Bears landed the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL draft after finishing with a 3-14 record.

Simply put, it was a potentially franchise-altering selection for the Bears. Rather than use it, they traded the top pick to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for wide receiver DJ Moore, two first-rounders and two second-rounders.

Now, Chicago has two first-round picks heading into the 2024 NFL draft, where they can find some top talent to add to their roster. But what are the chances of the Bears landing the first overall pick for the second season in a row?

Obviously the hope is Chicago doesn’t finish with the worst record in the league. But Bears fans will be rooting for the Panthers to struggle in 2023, with the hopes of that selection turning into a top pick.

ESPN projected the top 10 picks in the 2024 NFL draft using their Football Power Index. With Chicago’s second first-round pick — acquired from the Panthers — they have a 4.2 percent chance of landing the No. 1 selection and a 45.1 percent chance of locking down a top-10 selection.

Here’s what ESPN had to say about the Panthers projecting to land the No. 10 pick:

Just like with the Texans, a rookie a quarterback throwing to a weak receiving group is a tough sell and certainly presents serious downside. But this is far from a barren roster, and the defense boasts serious talents like cornerback Jaycee Horn, edge rusher Brian Burns, defensive tackle Derrick Brown and linebacker Frankie Luvu. The Bears (who are projected to have their own pick at No. 11) would be happy with this outcome.

In these projections, the Bears would hold back-to-back selections at Nos. 10 and 11, which would give them a chance to land some impact players at positions of need.

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