Were the polls wrong? Some predicted a landslide victory for Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt

A line forms outside a voting precinct Tuesday in Oklahoma City.

Chris Wilson’s job as a pollster for Gov. Kevin Stitt was on the line Tuesday, or at least his credibility was.

While some polls had predicted a close gubernatorial race in Oklahoma, or even a win for Democrat Joy Hofmeister, Wilson’s polling firm, WPA Intelligence, had Stitt winning big.

“If Kevin Stitt wins by less than 13 points, he probably would never use me again,” Wilson told The Oklahoman six days before the election.

Wilson’s firm published a survey last week that showed the governor with around a 13-point lead over Hofmeister.

On Tuesday, Stitt won by 13.6 points, a commanding reelection victory that was even higher than his first election win in 2018.

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“We were off by .3 (points) so the governor wants to know why I wasn’t closer,” Wilson joked during an interview hours after Stitt’s win.

Polls received a lot of attention this election cycle, especially as some firms indicated Hofmeister had a lead, giving her campaign momentum and Democrats hope for a shocking upset. But even as some began to consider the race for governor as a toss-up, the majority of credible polls still had Stitt winning reelection.

Out of 16 highly rated polls conducted during the final nine weeks of the campaign, nine had Stitt in the lead by an average of eight points.

Using those 16 polls, and other data on fundraising and incumbency trends, the poll-tracking site FiveThirtyEight still had the governor’s odds of reelection at 92% on Tuesday and forecasted Stitt to win by a 10-point margin.

A week before the election Stitt was leading by 10 points in a poll from Emerson College, which was the highest-rated firm to survey Oklahoma voters, according to ratings given by FiveThirtyEight.

Voter turnout was lower than four years ago

Voters stand in line to file their ballots on Election Day.

SoonerPoll was one of the firms that showed Hofmeister leading, including one survey two weeks before the election that had Stitt trailing by three points.

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“I want to be right. It hurts when we’re wrong,” said Bill Shapard, the founder of SoonerPoll, discussing his polls the day after Stitt’s victory.

“I stand by my polling. I think we did good work, but the problem is if people you think are going to turn out to vote don’t turn out, that is going to make a difference.”

Turnout statewide was 50.3% of registered voters, down from 56.15% four years ago. On Tuesday, 1.15 million voters cast ballots in the governor’s race, compared to 1.18 million in 2018.

A Joy Hofmeister supporter waits on election results on Tuesday at the candidate’s watch party at the Oklahoma History Center.

Shapard said the turnout among Democratic voters was lower than he expected, at least based on preliminary voting data.

“Republicans had normal turnout and it felt like a wave compared to the lower-than-expected turnout by Democrats and independents,” Shapard said.

Jackson Lisle, with Amber Integrated, another polling firm that showed a tight governor’s race and even a Hofmeister lead at one point, also credited turnout on Stitt’s big win.

More:Rural Oklahoma keeps the state red

“(Stitt) certainly overperformed most expectations in the rural areas,” Lisle told KOCO. “Both the share of the vote and turnout was really impressive in rural areas for the governor.”

Stitt’s support in rural areas was key in his win four years ago and he built on that support in Tuesday’s election.

In 2018, he won 65.4% of the vote in the 60 counties designated as rural by the federal Office of Management and Budget. On Tuesday, Stitt’s support in those counties grew to 67.8%, a 39-point advantage over Hofmeister.

Polls showing a tight race impacted the campaigns of both candidates

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, of Texas, speaks on Nov. 1 at an Oklahoma City rally in support of Gov. Kevin Stitt.

On Sept. 13 when SoonerPoll showed Stitt with just a one-point lead, Hofmeister released a message to her supporters saying they were in a position to pull the upset.

“Today’s news is a sign that our campaign message is working,” Hofmeister said.

The poll brought increased media attention to her campaign and attracted donors.

Stitt, who had not been running a highly visible campaign at that point, downplayed the poll. But as more polls came out showing a tight race, the governor appeared to begin running a more engaged campaign.

Stitt loaned his reelection effort nearly $2 million, the Republican Governors Association began pumping money into the race, and popular Republican figures like Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin came to Oklahoma to campaign on Stitt’s behalf.

More:Facing millions in attack ads, Gov. Kevin Stitt turns to self-funding in governor’s race

“Stitt’s lead may have been in the high single digits at one point but it never got below that,” said Wilson, the pollster who predicted a big Stitt win.

Wilson believes the onslaught of pro-Stitt television commercials in the final weeks of the campaign helped grow his support.

When the results came in Tuesday night, Stitt and his supporters referenced reports of a close race while they celebrated.

Ryan Walters congratulates Gov. Kevin Stitt during a GOP election night watch party Tuesday in Oklahoma City.

Ryan Walters, Stitt’s education secretary, also found himself trailing in some polls ahead of the election for state superintendent.

But like Stitt, Walters was elected by a large margin.

“The fake news and liberal media told you the governor and I weren’t going to win tonight,” Walters said while sharing a stage with the governor on Tuesday night. “But Oklahomans spoke loud and clear.”

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Some polls predicted an upset in the Oklahoma governor’s election