Washington tries to solve debt ceiling crisis without an empowered political center

If it’s TUESDAY… President Biden meets with congressional leaders in the Oval Office to discuss raising debt ceiling at 4:00 pm ET… Russia’s Putin rails against Ukraine, West at annual parade… E. Jean Carroll was “exactly” Donald Trump’s type, her lawyer says in closing argument of defamation case… Liz Cheney launches TV ad hitting Trump in New Hampshire, per NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard… And Democrat David Trone is already up on the air in MD-SEN.

But FIRST… It isn’t easy being a political moderate these days.

That’s particularly true as Democrats and Republicans are at a stalemate over the debt ceiling.

Congressional leaders are set to huddle with President Joe Biden later today, with Biden saying he won’t negotiate over the debt limit, and with Republicans dug in on demanding spending cuts. Neither side has much of a political incentive to back down.

That’s one of the realities of today’s polarized politics, where standing your ground is favored over compromising — and where pugilism is favored over pragmatism.

That makes it tough, not only for Biden and congressional leaders, but for the shrinking number of moderates in Congress. And these moderates will be key to any deal averting a national default. 

One of them is Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., who was recently profiled by Robert Draper in the New York Times Magazine.

Draper writes how Sinema has played a key role in President Biden’s top bipartisan achievements like the infrastructure law and the first major gun-control law in 30 years; how she’s trying to work with Republicans on the thorny issue of immigration/border reform; and how she brought clean drinking water to Arizona’s Native American tribes.

And in return? Sinema has become — along with fellow moderate Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. — one of the party’s most-hated senators, who now must decide if she’ll mount an uphill independent bid to hold on to her Senate seat.

Or whether she’ll retire from office at the age of 46.

Of course, that’s not the entire story, especially in the eyes of many Democrats. She’s rarely communicated her political goals (beyond magazine profiles in the NYT and The Atlantic); she’s super-cozy with corporate interests and lobbyists; she’s frustrated some major Democratic policy objectives (sometimes with theatrics); and she’s gone out of her way to thumb her nose at progressives — when she used to be one.

Still, the contempt that many Democrats have for her — despite her legislative achievements and her actual voting record — raises an important point about our current political times and media climate.

Ten to 20 years ago, senators such as Sinema (as well as Manchin and GOP Sen. Susan Collins) would have been celebrated by Washington insiders and much of the political press corps, much like the late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., was.

But as The Dispatch’s Sarah Isgur notes, the senators who have reputations as dealmakers and who reach across the aisle — Sinema, Manchin, Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins, Utah GOP Sen. Mitt Romney, Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski — have some of the lowest approval ratings in their own states. (It’s also striking that these senators are sometimes more popular with the opposition than their own bases.)

Our increasingly polarized times encourage politicians to pick a side and stay there.

Yet without an empowered center, it’s much harder to come up with policy solutions that both sides can live with.

Headline of the dayData Download: The number of the day is … 67%

That’s the share — approximately — of House and Senate lawmakers who were NOT serving in Congress during the last major debt ceiling standoff in 2011, per an NBC News analysis of current members and votes for the 2011 Budget Control Act.

Just 175 of the 535 members of the House and Senate (or 32.7%) were serving in Congress when lawmakers passed the measure, averting a national default. 

Those lawmakers include 99 Democrats, 75 Republicans and one independent. Most of the lawmakers still in office — 111 — supported the Budget Control Act, which raised the debt ceiling and included automatic spending cuts. 

Three of those lawmakers — Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer — will be huddling with Biden on Tuesday to try and find common ground again. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was not serving in Congress during the last debt limit fight. 

Other numbers to know

66%: The portion of Americans who say the abortion medication mifepristone should stay on the market, versus 24% who say it should be taken off the market, per a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

25: The number of years federal prosecutors want Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes to serve in prison for seditious conspiracy for his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, a charge that he was convicted of in November.

20: How many Republican-led states have criticized the Biden administration’s student loan forgiveness plan, but offer their own state-level student debt relief, per NBC News’ Adam Edelman.

118: The number of law enforcement officers who were killed in the line of duty in 2022, according to the FBI, NBC News’ Michael Kosnar reports.

22: The number of mass shootings in the U.S. so far this year, following a mass killing of eight in Allen, Texas, over the weekend, the Washington Post reports. 

37: How many members of Congress are mothers to children under 18, according to the 19th News. 

2: How many Texas Republicans supported a bill raising the age to buy a semi-automatic rifle, helping the measure advance through a state House committee on Monday.

$10 million: The amount of money Buffalo Bills player Damar Hamlin raised after he collapsed on field during a game in January that he plans to donate to his own charity, the Chasing M’s Foundation.

Eyes on 2024: Anti-Trump spending ramps up

NBC News’ Vaughn Hillyard scooped this morning that former Wyoming Republican Rep. Liz Cheney is launching a new anti-Trump TV ad in New Hampshire. 

“Donald Trump is a risk America can never take again,” Cheney says in an ad from her Great Task PAC, before criticizing Trump for being “the only president in American history who has refused to guarantee the peaceful transfer of power” as footage from the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol plays. 

The strategy is reminiscent of her approach during the 2022 midterms, when she ran ads criticizing Arizona Republican nominees for governor and secretary of state who cast doubt on the 2020 election. And while Cheney doesn’t appear in the ad outside of her narration, the move will undoubtedly raise questions about whether she is still weighing a bid for president. 

Regardless, Cheney’s move puts another anti-Trump ad on the air as his Republican rivals look to cut into his significant lead in fight for the Republican nomination. Never Back Down, the super PAC backing Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, has run a handful of ads criticizing Trump, including one questioning why Trump keeps attacking DeSantis instead of Democrats and another digital spot that called Trump a “gun grabber.”

In other campaign news … 

Trump talk: After recently criticizing Trump, the head of an anti-abortion group praised the former president after meeting with him on Monday. Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America’s Marjorie Dannenfelser said he “reiterated that any federal legislation protecting these children would need to include the exceptions for life of the mother and in cases of rape and incest,” per the Associated Press.

Closing arguments: Both the lawyers for E. Jean Carroll, the writer who has accused former President Donald Trump of rape and defamation, and the former president gave their closing arguments Monday in the civil trial stemming from Carroll’s accusations. 

Mouse grouse: Disney is expanding its lawsuit against Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, CNBC reports. 

Three’s a crowd: Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence are all slated to speak at the upcoming North Carolina Republican Party convention in Greensboro, N.C.

Scott doesn’t go there: Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., who is expected to formally launch a presidential run later this month, declined to criticize Biden’s age during a New Hampshire town hall Monday, per the New York Times. “I think he’s failing his job because he’s incompetent. I refuse to say it’s because he’s too old or he’s too frail,” Scott said. 

McConnell speaks: CNN spoke to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell about his strategy to win back control of the Senate, which focuses primarily on Montana, West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania. 

Half-court shot: NBC News’ Matt Dixon and Jonathan Allen report that Democratic donors are trying to woo NBA legends Dwayne Wade and Grant Hill into running for Senate in Florida. 

Potomac River(house)boat gambling: Politico reports on how many West Virginia Republicans would prefer to see Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin retire than run against him next year.  

Geaux Landry: Trump is endorsing Louisiana GOP Attorney General Jeff Landry’s gubernatorial bid as the party looks to finally take back the state’s governor’s seat.  

Trone’s first ad: Maryland Democratic Rep. David Trone is going up on TV with his first ad of the Senate race, focusing on opioid deaths, suicide and criminal justice. AdImpact data shows he’s booked almost $1 million already. And Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin said whether or not he runs for Senate is an “absolute tossup,” but he needs to decide by June, per Axios.

Another Gen-Zer in Congress? Maryland state Del. Joe Vogel, a Democrat, announced Monday that he’s running for Congress in the state’s 6th District to replace Trone. At 26, Vogel would be the second member of Gen Z in Congress, following Florida Rep. Maxwell Alejandro Frost.

ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:

On Monday, the White House issued a veto threat, signaling the president would not sign a Republican-backed bill regarding immigration, called the “Secure the Border Act of 2023.”

North Dakota’s governor signed a law making it legal for state workers and teachers to ignore the preferred pronouns of transgender students and coworkers.

Former President Donald Trump has been barred by a judge from posting some evidence on social media from his ongoing case regarding a hush money payment made to an adult film actress during his 2016 presidential campaign.