Warriors offseason primer: Draymond Green’s future, Klay Thompson extension, more

The reigning champion Golden State Warriors had their title defense cut short after falling to the Los Angeles Lakers in six games. Despite bringing back most of last season’s rotation, this year’s team couldn’t execute at a similar level. Their defeat may be an indication of how much they miss Mike Brown and his role in coordinating their top-tier defense over their elite run.

Now the basketball world is wondering, is this it for the Warriors? While age-related factors could be catching up to them, it’s also possible that this year was just a weird hiccup and they’ll get back to playing at a higher level next season. But new changes to the CBA could force the Warriors to break up the team or at least significantly alter it sometime in the near future. The clock is officially ticking on the Warriors as we know them.

Here is a preview of the 2023 offseason for the Golden State Warriors.

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State of the roster and luxury tax concerns

(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

The Warriors are heading into the offseason with nearly the entire roster returning. They have 13 players under contract, including the player options for Draymond Green and Donte DiVincenzo, and their first-round pick. Assuming both options are picked up, the Warriors will have a payroll of $215 million. This would put them more than $50 million over the projected $162 million luxury tax line.

Golden State remains in the repeater tax, which significantly increased their tax rates this past season. They are set to pay a $164 million tax payment for their 2022-23 roster off a $188.5 million payroll. If the Warriors run this team back, their tax payment will exceed $270 million once they sign a 14th player. This would give them a payroll and tax combination of approximately $490 million.

Where the Warriors draw the line on expenses will be one of the biggest stories of the entire offseason. There’s already skepticism on whether ownership is willing to increase expenses by nearly 1.5 times its current amount and this relatively early playoff exit certainly won’t help. A significant cost-cutting move could come, which could be in the form of trading one of their highest-paid players like Jordan Poole or Draymond Green (if he opts in).

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The second tax apron

(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

While tax concerns could drive the Warriors to short-term sacrifices, the newly implemented second tax apron could be what puts an expiration date on their hall of fame core. That is due to the myriad of restrictions teams above it will have towards improving the roster.

Starting in 2023-24, teams above the second tax apron lose access to the mid-level exception and can’t sign players waived mid-season whose pre-waiver salaries were higher than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. And for this upcoming season only, they can take back up to 110 percent of outgoing salaries in a trade instead of 125 percent.

Starting in 2024-25, teams over the second apron won’t be able to take back more salaries in trade than they’re giving out. They also can’t aggregate players in trades, convey cash to other teams in trades, use existing trade exceptions from the previous season, or acquire a player under contract or generate a trade exception when sign-and-trading their own free agent to another team.

The Warriors essentially won’t be able to increase their payroll other than by re-signing their own players, signing draft picks, and minimum players. Any trade they do from 2024-25 onwards could be as sellers. This makes the 2023-24 season their last chance to make an unbalanced trade where they take on more salaries than they’re giving out.

The Warriors seem likely to operate as a second apron team in 2023-24 since they already have their roster and rotation established. A lot of the restrictions and future consequences for second apron teams won’t apply yet, such as the freezing of first-round picks seven years away and modified luxury tax rates. Starting in 2025-26, rates are expected to be significantly higher starting at the third tax level, or roughly $11 million over the tax threshold. The exact payroll they had for 2022-23 would equate to a $63 million higher tax penalty in 2025-26 (roughly $227 million).

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Potential free agent or extension-candidate: Draymond Green

Draymond Green has a $27.6 million player option this summer. He remains one of the best defenders in the league and has a case to earn a slightly higher annual salary after helping Golden State win a title last season. The Warriors likely won’t be able to replace him if he leaves but it’s also hard to identify cap space teams that make great sense for him.

Green remains extension-eligible through June 30 but he would be eligible for a higher extension amount during 2023-24 if he picks up his player option. He reportedly was seeking one since last summer but the Warriors wanted to wait until he became an expiring contract. His future could be resolved this offseason if the Warriors don’t intend on extending him. This could include accommodating him with a trade to a preferred destination. He would become trade-eligible immediately after picking up his player option.

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Extension candidate: Klay Thompson

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Klay Thompson will be extension-eligible throughout 2023-24. He is entering the final season of the five year, $190 million contract he signed with the Warriors in 2019. He didn’t appear for approximately half of the contract due to lower body injuries from 2019-2022, but he’s managed to play at a high enough level to help the Warriors win one more title. He will be seeking one last big contract either via extension or as a free agent in 2024, but it’s unclear how the Warriors will prioritize that with big expenses and restrictions incoming.

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Free agent: Donte DiVincenzo

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Donte DiVincenzo has a $4.7 million player option that he seems likely to decline. He outplayed his contract and was vital in filling in for Andrew Wiggins and helping the Warriors avoid the Play-In Tournament. The Warriors would be able to re-sign him for up to four years, $23.2 million if he opts out, which would give him a $5.4 million starting salary. However, the Warriors are at a disadvantage in re-signing him since another team could easily outbid them for his services.

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2023-24 SALARY SITUATION

Players rostered: 13

Guaranteed salaries: $214.7 million

Non-guaranteed salaries: $0 million

Total salary: $214.7 million

Luxury tax space: $52.7 million above the tax

First apron space: $49 million above the first apron

Second apron space: $38.5 million above the second apron

Spending power:

James Wiseman trade exception: $1,303,360 (expires February 9, 2024)

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Stephen Curry

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

2023-24 salary: $51,915,615

Remaining salary guaranteed: $146,396,031 through 2025-26

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Klay Thompson

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

2023-24 salary: $43,219,440

Remaining salary guaranteed: $43,219,440

Additional notes:

Extension-eligible throughout 2023-24 for up to four years, $220.6 million

15 percent trade bonus currently worth $3.7 million

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Jordan Poole

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

2023-24 salary: $27,705,357

Remaining salary guaranteed: $123,000,000 through 2026-27

Additional notes:

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Draymond Green

(Photo by Takashi Aoyama/Getty Images)

2023-24 salary: $27,586,224 (player option)

Remaining salary guaranteed: $27,586,224

Additional notes:

Extension-eligible through June 30 for up to four years, $138.7 million

If he picks up his option, he would be extension-eligible through 2023-24 for up to four years, $173 million

15 percent trade bonus currently worth $4.1 million

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Andrew Wiggins

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

2023-24 salary: $24,330,357

Remaining salary guaranteed: $109,000,000 through 2026-27

Additional notes:

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Gary Payton II

(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

2023-24 salary: $8,715,000

Remaining salary guaranteed: $17,845,000 through 2024-25

Additional notes:

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Kevon Looney

Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

2023-24 salary: $7,500,000

Remaining salary guaranteed: $15,000,000 through 2024-25

Additional notes:

$1 million in unlikely annual incentives

2024-25 salary is partially guaranteed for $3 million. Fully guaranteed if waived by June 23, 2024, or Warriors win a title

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Jonathan Kuminga

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

2023-24 salary: $6,012,840

Remaining salary guaranteed: $13,649,147 through 2024-25

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Donte DiVincenzo

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

2023-24 salary: $4,725,000 (player option)

Remaining salary guaranteed: $4,725,000

Additional notes:

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Moses Moody

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

2023-24 salary: $3,918,480

Remaining salary guaranteed: $9,721,749 through 2024-25

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Patrick Baldwin Jr.

2023-24 salary: $2,337,720

Remaining salary guaranteed: $11,767,276 through 2025-26

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Ryan Rollins

2023-24 salary: $1,719,864

Remaining salary guaranteed: $2,319,864 through 2024-25

Additional notes:

2024-25 salary is partially guaranteed for $600,000. Fully guaranteed if not waived by June 28, 2024

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Anthony Lamb

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Cap hold: $2,261,264

Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)

Additional notes:

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JaMychal Green

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Cap hold: $1,989,698

Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)

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Andre Iguodala

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Cap hold: $1,989,698

Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)

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Ty Jerome

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Cap hold: $1,774,999

Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)

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Lester Quinones

Cap hold: $1,774,999

Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)

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2023 Pick No. 19

2023-24 salary: $3,302,640

Remaining salary guaranteed: $15,998,405 through 2026-27

Additional notes: HoopsHype and ForTheWin’s draft expert Bryan Kalbrosky has the Warriors selecting Dariq Whitehead with the 19th overall selection in his most recent mock draft.

You can follow Yossi Gozlan (@YossiGozlan) on Twitter.

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Story originally appeared on HoopsHype