Waffle House Index on red: 36 coastal restaurants closed after Hurricane Sally rips through Alabama

As Hurricane Sally took aim at coastal Mississippi and Alabama on Monday, Lars Powell felt almost certain about one thing: Waffle House restaurants in Mobile and Baldwin counties would have their lights on and the griddles in use.

But Sally’s forceful and unexpected punch into Alabama ruptured power lines and downed large trees throughout Baldwin County. Waffle House restaurants, like all others, have been left in the dark. And now the Georgia-based chain, which has developed a reputation for its disaster preparedness through the so-called “Waffle House” Index, is scrambling to get their eateries back on and power crews fed.

The index’s formula is simple in that it utilizes three measures of storm damage based on stop light colors: green means the restaurant is serving a full menu and indicates utilities are functioning and damage is limited, yellow means the restaurants is serving a limited menu and that electricity might be supplied through a generator or food supplies are low and a red means the restaurant is closed and severe damage is nearby.

Njeri Boss, the director of public relations with Waffle House, said that decisions are still being made about the sequence in which the restaurants in Mobile and Baldwin counties will reopen. Boss said there is no update regarding the Baldwin County restaurants. Currently, there are 36 Waffle House restaurants without power between Alabama and Florida.

“We have teams in the field working on reopening,” Boss said.

Powell, director & senior research professional at the Alabama Center for Insurance Information and Research at the University of Alabama – who has studied the utilization of the “Waffle House Index” during natural disasters – said earlier this week that forecasts showed the unlikelihood of a powerful hurricane striking the coastal area. “If the models hold, and the Waffle Houses do not flood, there will be bacon, hash browns, and waffles available throughout the storm.”

Indeed, the models changed. Powell called the forecasts “junk” and Sally a “sneaky storm” and the Waffle House Index for coastal Alabama is in the rarest of categories – “Red” – since most of the restaurants are closed.

Some of the restaurants, such as one on U.S. 98 in Daphne, has down trees throughout its property.

Panos Kouvelis, director of the Boeing Center for Supply Chain Innovation at Washington University in St. Louis, said the next thing to monitor is how many Waffle House restaurants can be reopened to some extent, allowing for limited menus.

“The move to yellow will show speed of recovery in the area,” said Kouvelis, in an email to AL.com. “And hopefully, fully open soon (but in how many days?)”

Kouvelis has often praised the restaurant chain for its “highly resilient business with a great supply chain risk management” program in effect.

“They are able to continue operating in harsh conditions, and offer their services when they are needed the most,” he said, noting that after severe hurricanes when almost nothing else is open, “some warm food helps first responders and residents in the affected areas.”

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