Voices: With Truss out, it’s in the Tories’ interests to go for a general election

Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas and today’s Tory party is dominated by those giant American agri-businesses-produced, genetically modified monsters. Someone needs to break its neck, for goodness sake. It’d be a kindness.

But even brutalised, beaten up Tory beasts don’t vote for that. Do they? With Liz Truss’s resignation and a new prime minister promised within a week?

The Independent has launched a petition calling for a general election

If they seek a mandate from the British people, it could mean extinction given the 30 point lead Labour enjoys and the utter chaos into which the government has plunged itself and us. And yet, given the way they’re carrying on, it’s quite possible they could still sink lower than the deepest cave the good people at Wookey Hole can find.

Just for fun, let’s look at why the turkeys might line up to join the seasonal veg, stuffing, roast tatties and Yorkshire puddings. There are three reasons for calling time on the current s***show: the first is the cost of living crisis and the dreadful economic situation.

In the past, I’ve been accused of being something of a Jeremiah on this front. These days, I’m just one part of a growing crowd. We could easily fill the Camp Nou. It’s hard to find anyone willing to take an optimistic view, even among the ranks of the contrarians. In the City, they’re watching aghast. How did this happen in (formerly) sensible, stable Britain? What are these people on?

Inflation is likely to remain stubbornly high until next year at least, when the pressures are expected to ease somewhat. But the risk of a 1970s style wage-price spiral could upend that forecast. Much depends on how aggressive the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is prepared to be. So far, it has been remarkably dovish but that could easily change given the gravity of the situation. The trouble is, if its members put on their big boy/girl pants, it is going to bite into mortgage holders like a hungry velociraptor. They’re already looking at their bills with frightened eyes. That word “repossession” could be poised for a revival.

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And it isn’t just mortgage holders. Renters are, if anything, facing even bigger problems. Then there is the plight of the poorest 10 per cent. The food banks are going to be very busy. When inflation and rates do start to ease, one thing is clear: we’ll all be worse off. Some of us will be a lot worse off.

Could even a chancellor – will there be another new one of those – with a Nobel prize in economics to their name turn this around in the time the Tories have? A general election must be held by January 2025. That gives the government barely two years to recover from this self-created crisis, which, combined with a rotten global situation, has thrown the UK into the middle of a perfect storm.

Add in the threatened cuts to public services left threadbare by a decade of Tory austerity, the tax increases they’ve imposed, and everything else and a thirty point poll deficit might actually look halfway decent by then.

Five years after its own economic crisis, John Major’s administration was presiding over far more robust growth than we have now, along with falling inflation, unemployment and interest rates. It didn’t stop the Blair landslide.

So here’s the question: mightn’t it be better to leave Labour to clear up the mess? Being in government for the next two years isn’t going to be any fun for anyone. Labour getting blamed for intractable Tory problems could be their best way back.

Which brings us to the second reason for our turkeys to vote for Christmas: politics. Major lost because of politics. His government was a mess, riven with factionalism and in-fighting, mostly over Europe (of course). He was infamously recorded cursing out his four cabinet “b*****ds”. It wasn’t all that hard to guess who they were.

Sound familiar? Except the current administration looks far, far worse. Occupants of the great offices of state don’t last any longer than unpopular contestants on I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here these days. There are credible reports of MPs being manhandled into voting lobbies. The government can’t seem to work out what is and what isn’t a confidence vote. “I am f***ing furious and I don’t give a f*** anymore,” said the deputy chief whip. Is he still in post? Who knows?

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It’s dizzyingly bad. Can this really continue for another two years? “Little dictator” Liz Truss has resigned after having torn up her predecessor’s manifesto. She then had her own programme torn up for her. What is the public going to think about being denied a say a second time around? A spell in opposition might be the only way for this party to sort itself out. Some Tory MPs have been talking about general elections. It is, it seems, at least politically possible.

Finally, there is patriotism and the national interest. No, don’t laugh. I know MPs’ self-interest trumps that. It sometimes seems like there’s a proportional relationship between their fondness for flag waving and the level of self interest they display. What was it someone said about patriotism? “The last refuge of the scoundrel.” Seems about right.

But maybe some genuinely believe in, I don’t know, their civic duty? Maybe they feel that the damage that has been caused by Truss – the one woman coalition of chaos in the words of the editor of Conservative Home – is so severe that only a general election can solve the problem she has created. We shouldn’t forget all the problems Boris Johnson created, while we’re on the subject.

Could a combination of these three factors really force a poll? Maybe even as soon as Christmas. Is that a turkey I see in the oven?