Victoria is Lib’s black hole, but Frydenberg may be thinking comeback

On Saturday night, the statewide primary swing against the Andrews government was just under 6 per cent, while the Liberals went backwards by under 1 per cent. To show no improvement over the hiding the Liberals received in 2018, when there should have been some correction given all that occurred in between, is damning.

Typically, voters hedge their bets. If the federal government changes its hue, voters go the other way at a state level as happened previously in Victoria, Not this time.

The Liberals have been soundly rejected at both levels in six months. Victoria is a black hole for the party.

The swings against Labor in the western and northern suburbs, where people suffered the most from Andrews’ inept contact tracing and draconian lockdown measures, were significant, but not enough to cost Labor its ultra-safe seats.

As we saw at the federal election in May, it is the Liberals’ old heartland metropolitan electorates, particularly the eastern suburbs, where the party is struggling.

Demographic changes, including fewer asset holders, and climate awareness, are factors which resulted in the Liberals failing to win back such seats as Box Hill. Fiscal profligacy no longer seems to be the deterrent it once was.

One rare bright note for the Liberals was holding off the teals in Mornington, Kew and Hawthorn. The latter two seats constitute 90 per cent of the electorate of Kooyong, which teal independent Monique Ryan won from Josh Frydenberg in May.

Ryan campaigned strongly for the teals in Kew and Hawthorn. The state election will prod Frydenberg towards trying to win back his seat. Don’t believe he’s not thinking about it.

A cautionary note on the teals. In the federal election, the teals had almost unlimited cash, but spending and fundraising caps in Victoria for the state election made their job harder. Similar donation caps apply at a state level in NSW, providing some hope for under-threat Liberals in that state which goes to the polls in March.

Of the 39 federal seats in Victoria, the Coalition holds just 11.

At a bare minimum, it needs to win back those it lost in May – Kooyong and Goldstein, both of which fell to teals – and Higgins and Chisholm.

Peter Dutton is almost as unpopular in Victoria as was Morrison and Matthew Guy. So much so, he stayed away from the state for the duration of the campaign.

Now he needs to engage. Victorian Liberals talk about “socialising” their leader as if he were a rescue pet who will be fine once he learns to mingle.

Close to completion is the review the Liberal Party conducted into its may defeat. Many of the lessons and recommendations contained within will be underscored by the events on Saturday night.