Verlander? Manoah? Ohtani? Here’s how I filled out my Cy Young ballot.

Cy Young Award ballots are due shortly after the conclusion of the regular season. Postseason performance — good or bad — plays no role.

I was scrupulous about not forming any conclusions until after every pitcher had made his final regular season appearance, even if that meant waiting until the final day for a handful of pitchers to wrap up their season. It all goes on the resume and it all deserves to be considered.

That means it was Oct. 6 before I invested several hours sorting through numbers and spreadsheets and trying to make sense of my Cy Young vote.

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This is my second time voting on this award, and my basic criteria have remained the same. I try not to blindly follow Wins Above Replacement (WAR). If you’re going to do that, why not just call them the WAR Awards? But the all-encompassing number was a quick way to broadly organize the top candidates.

In addition to baseball’s more traditional numbers, my spreadsheet also considered Win Probably Added (WPA), Championship Win Probability Added (cWPA) and Run Expectancy Wins (REW), which helped account for the concrete ways in a which a player helped his team win games and, ultimately, championships.

Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander and Los Angeles Angels two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani ended up being the two pitchers I considered most strongly.

I was a bit surprised that Ohtani, while frequently mentioned as an MVP candidate, wasn’t discussed as much for the Cy Young Award. (That was my perception, at least).

Both Verlander and Ohtani started 28 games, although Verlander did throw nine more innings. Many of their numbers are broadly comparable. But in addition to Verlander’s outstanding traditional numbers (including a league-best 1.75 ERA), WPA and REW also provide evidence that Verlander contributed to his team’s success like no one else in baseball. Yes, it was even more amazing that he was doing it as a 39-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery. That was in the back of my ahead, although I didn’t explicitly consider it as a factor.

As for Ohtani, I certainly didn’t want to punish the guy because he also hits. You could make a strong case for him to be the No. 2 Cy Young and the No. 2 MVP without actually winning either award. That seems unfair in a way, but Verlander and Aaron Judge — who is likely to win the MVP award — are both elite candidates coming off an incredible years. I put Ohtani at No. 2 not as a slight, but as a sign of great respect.

Next up on my list: Toronto Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah and Dylan Cease of the Chicago White Sox.

My only concern about Manoah, who had otherwise flawless numbers, was that his xFIP and xFIP- would indicate that perhaps he’s been a bit lucky this year. But as I always say when voting on awards, we’re voting based on what happened, not what could or should have happened, or what would happen if this season were replayed again. And frankly, if you’re dinging pitchers for less-than-brilliant FIPs, you’re always going to punish guys with lower strikeout rates, which seems unfair.

I had Cease very close behind, but gave Manoah a slight edge due to his incredible cWPA, which was best among all candidates.

For the fifth and final spot on my ballot, there were six candidates that I would felt comfortable putting there.

I don’t know if it’s possible for a past Cy Young winner to be underrated, but I felt the Guardians’ Shane Bieber had a sneaky great season. I also wanted to give a boost to guys like him, Framber Valdez and Martin Perez, who reached or nearly reached 200 innings.

I gave Bieber a very slight edge over Valdez. Perez also would have been a fair choice. My next group of candidates included Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), Nestor Cortes (Yankees), Shane McClanahan (Rays) and Triston McKenzie (Guardians).

I felt conflicted about having McClanahan so low (or, in this case, not on the ballot at all). If the season had ended on Aug. 30, he might have won the Cy Young. That seems like an overly harsh penalty for missing a couple weeks with an injury, right?

But McClanahan’s four post-injury starts were only so-so and I had to be committed to judging each player’s full body of work rather than individual sections of it. That’s one reason I tried to avoid drawing preconceived notions during the season and instead waited until after the season to evaluate the whole picture.

I submitted my ballot not feeling great about it, as often the case when there are so many excellent candidates. The top four were really close. The next six were really close. (I wouldn’t have minded 10 spots on the ballot instead of five).

I’m not sure how much my ballot will differ from the pack. I’d be stunned if Verlander doesn’t win, but I might have Ohtani and Manoah a spot or two higher than others, and perhaps Cease a spot or two lower.

Putting Cease at No. 2 — or even No. 1 — is perfectly defensible. I just liked Ohtani and Manoah a tad more.

Maybe I have Bieber a bit higher than others, but I feel OK about that, too.

My ballot:

1. Justin Verlander, Astros

2. Shohei Ohtani, Angels

3. Alek Manoah, Blue Jays

4. Dylan Cease, White Sox

5. Shane Bieber, Guardians

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