UFC Fight Night 206 breakdown: Why Holly Holm should finish Ketlen Vieira in return from layoff

Sep 9, 2017; Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; Sara McMann (red gloves) fights against Ketlen Vieira (blue gloves) during UFC 215 at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

Considering where Vieira’s advantages lie on paper, no one should be shocked if the Brazilian looks for takedowns early and often.

Not only does Vieira come from a judo and jiu-jitsu base, but she also competed in wrestling, earning regional accolades and a championship in Brazil back in 2009. In fact, in more recent fights, Vieira has done a better job when it comes to changing her level for double-legs or snatching up the occasional single.

That said, Vieira still scores and attempts most of her takedowns from the clinch. Whether she’s loosely searching for an outside reap with her leg or looking for body locks off of underhooks, Vieira – for better or worse – will typically wait for her opponents to make mistakes before getting aggressive with something.

But considering that Holm has been embracing her point-scoring sensibilities inside of closed quarters as of late, I will be curious to see how clinch exchanges play out between these two.

Deceptively strong in the clinch, Holm works well off overhooks and underhooks, framing with her forearms as she looks to break away (something that proved effective against past judoka foes like Ronda Rousey).

Against fighters like Cris Cyborg and Raquel Pennington, Holm showed that she has more than just defensive framing and underhook awareness, engaging and controlling clinches on her terms throughout the contest. And against Irene Aldana, Holm displayed improved takedown chains and sensible work from topside, showing the savvy and wherewithal to transition through phases.

Still, I’m not so sure she’ll be looking to grapple with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt like Vieira – at least early.

Although she isn’t the most action-packed fighter on the floor, Vieira shows solid fundamentals from topside that range from persuasive shoulder pressures to passes that involve subtle submission threats. Should Vieira get to a good position in this fight, I’ll be curious to see if she steps up her aggression given how her grappling has been graded in the past.