UFC 297 predictions: Will Strickland hold onto the belt?

Ahead of Saturday’s UFC 297 in Toronto, theScore’s Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.

Middleweight title bout

Sean Strickland (28-5)vs.Dricus Du Plessis (20-2)

After he somehow dethroned Israel Adesanya at UFC 293 last September, it’s time to find out if Sean Strickland can become a defending champion.

The middleweight king has a tough test ahead of him in the form of Dricus Du Plessis, a South African juggernaut who’s finished five of his six UFC opponents. Du Plessis earned a title shot (which was initially expected to come against Adesanya) more than half a year ago when he knocked out former champ Robert Whittaker, and now he finally gets a chance to take the throne from Strickland.

Both Strickland and Du Plessis generally like to keep their fights standing, but they have vastly different styles in that area. Strickland is a technical boxer who used a basic one-two combination to shut down Adesanya’s game plan very effectively over five rounds. The champion has some knockouts on his resume but is known for picking fighters apart rather than finishing them. Du Plessis, on the other hand, has an awkward and unorthodox style, and he uses brute force to get into his opponents’ range and land hard punches that, more often than not, shut out the lights.

That’s what I think will be the difference-maker for Du Plessis in ensuring Strickland doesn’t have the same kind of performance he had against Adesanya. The challenger won’t stand back and try to pick Strickland apart like Adesanya did. He’ll come forward and try to knock him out. And I think he’ll be successful.

The pick: Du Plessis, third-round TKO

Cooper Neill / UFC / GettyWomen’s bantamweight title bout

Raquel Pennington (15-8)vs.Mayra Bueno Silva (10-2-1, 1 NC)

A UFC fighter since 2018, Mayra Bueno Silva worked her way up the ladder and proved herself as one of the world’s best women’s bantamweights. She now has a chance to reach the pinnacle of the sport by capturing the vacant title.

Standing in her way is Raquel Pennington, a longtime 135-pound contender who has quietly won five in a row dating back to 2020 to secure a second title shot.

This fight is relatively straightforward: Bueno Silva is the better grappler and Pennington is the better striker, so it’ll come down to where it predominantly takes place. Bueno Silva has been on a different level as of late, submitting Lina Lansberg and former champion Holly Holm, so I think she’ll have the edge.

Don’t be surprised if Pennington’s veteran savvy comes into play, but expect Bueno Silva to control where the fight goes and walk out of the Octagon as the new champ.

The pick: Bueno Silva, unanimous decision

Jeff Bottari / UFC / GettyFeatherweight bout

Arnold Allen (19-2)vs.Movsar Evloev (17-0)

In this featherweight matchup, Arnold Allen will defend his top-three ranking as Russian grappler Movsar Evloev looks to finally break into title contention.

Although Allen is very much a live underdog, Evloev is a tough stylistic matchup for him. Evloev is 7-0 in the UFC, just entering his prime at 29 years old, and arguably has the best grappling in the division.

If Allen can keep the fight on the feet, he absolutely has a shot to win. There’s no doubt the Englishman is legitimate: Last time out, he was competitive with former 145-pound champion Max Holloway. But Evloev has shown all the signs of a future title challenger, and I don’t think Allen has the defensive wrestling to stop him.

The pick: Evloev, unanimous decision

Chris Unger / UFC / Getty

Other main-card predictions: Mike Malott def. Neil Magny by submission; Chris Curtis def. Marc-Andre Barriault by decision