UFC 264 fight card, odds — Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier: What to expect from each PPV bout in Las Vegas

Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier are set to finally determine a winner in their rivalry when they meet on Saturday night in the main event of UFC 264. The action is set to go down from Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena to cap off a 13-fight card featuring plenty of meaningful action.

A confident McGregor won the mind games against Poirier ahead of their 2014 featherweight clash, then won in the Octagon when he scored a TKO victory in less than two minutes. Poirier had to wait a long time for revenge, moving up to lightweight and becoming a force at 155 pounds. 

Poirier shocked many with his thrilling second-round TKO of McGregor in January, but he stunned even more when he chose to pursue a trilogy bout with the Irishman over a chance at the lightweight title. The belt was left vacant shortly after his win when Khabib Nurmagomedov affirmed his decision to retire to UFC president Dana White. Now, a win for either man likely earns them a shot at new champion Charles Oliveira later this year.

The co-main event carries equal importance to the welterweight title picture. Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is set to face off with Gilbert Burns in a bout that could shape the 170-pound title challenging future. Colby Covington is expected to get next in a rematch with Kamaru Usman after he was stopped in the fifth round at the end of 2019, Thompson and Burns — both former title challengers in their own right — have a claim at being next after that with a win on Saturday night. It would be Thompson’s third opportunity at the belt after coming up short in a draw and majority decision loss to Tyron Woodley previously.

In addition to some incredible bouts atop the card, there’s even more excitement to be found in earlier fights. Heavyweight sluggers Tai Tuivasa and Greg Hardy meet in a featured contest on the PPV; Irene Aldana and Yana Kunitskaya face off in an important bout at women’s bantamweight; and Sean O’Malley welcomes UFC newcomer Kris Moutinho in a bantamweight bout to kick things off on PPV at 10 p.m. ET.

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We know it’s easy to get lost in the minutiae of a big event. So we’re here to help give you a concise outlook of what to expect and what to know for every main card fight. Let’s take a closer look at what to expect on Saturday with the latest odds from William Hill Sportsbook.

Sean O’Malley -800 vs. Kris Moutinho +550, bantamweights: Louis Smolka was originally slated to face O’Malley (13-1), already a step down from what most wanted from the rising contender’s next opponent. The UFC has thrown heavy promotional effort behind the exciting, heavy-hitting O’Malley and he seemed to be moving toward a title shot before a surprising upset loss to Marlon Vera. While plenty of interesting options for opponents called to step in and take the fight, the UFC looked externally, signing Moutinho (9-4). Except for his most recent fight, Moutinho’s entire career took place in the CES MMA cage. Moutinho is riding a two-fight winning streak, bouncing back from a two-fight losing skid. Moutinho has only finished four of his nine career victories but has been stopped in all four of his losses. O’Malley has nine knockouts and one submission win on his record.

Irene Aldana -120 vs. Yana Kunitskaya +100, women’s bantamweights: After a rocky start to her UFC career, losing both of her initial fights in the Octagon, Aldana (12-6) has straightened things out with a 5-2 run. Her most recent fight was a decision loss to Holly Holm in a UFC Fight Night main event. The Holm fight was Aldana’s only fight in 2020, in part because of a mid-year positive COVID-19 test that delayed the Holm fight from August to October. Aldana has nine finishes in her 12 career victories. In Kunitskaya (14-5), Aldana faces another highly-ranked opponent in the UFC’s bantamweight division. Kunitskaya made her Octagon debut after capturing the Invicta FC bantamweight champion, immediately being thrust into deep waters as she faced Cris Cyborg for the UFC featherweight title. Kunitskaya lost the fight by TKO in the first round. She has gone on to win four of her next five fights, including a current two-fight winning streak.

Tai Tuivasa -135 vs. Greg Hardy +115, heavyweights: Hardy (7-3), a former NFL star whose career ended after domestic violence allegations that came with photographic evidence, has been a controversial part of the UFC roster since two sub-one minute knockouts on Dana White’s Contender Series. He lost his official UFC debut by disqualification after an illegal knee before two wins. A third was overturned for Hardy violating the rules once again, this time using an inhaler between rounds. Hardy has since gone 2-2, with losses to Alexander Volkov and Marcin Tybura in a fight where fatigue caused him to crumble. Tuivasa (11-3) began his UFC career with three straight victories before a trio of losses. He is currently riding a two-fight winning streak, knocking out Stefan Struve and Harry Hunsucker, both in the first round. In Tuivasa’s 11 career victories, he has scored 10 knockouts, all in the first round.

Stephen Thompson -165 vs. Gilbert Burns +140, welterweights: Thompson (16-4-1) is a former two-time welterweight title challenger, battling Tyron Woodley to a draw before losing the rematch by majority decision. Thompson has been a consistent high-level competitor and one of the most successful fighters in UFC history to come from a karate base. After a two-fight losing skid, Thompson got back on track with two straight wins over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal. At 38 years old, Thompson is attempting to push for one final run at a title shot. Burns (19-4), however, is coming off his own title shot, losing to Kamaru Usman by third-round knockout in February. That loss snapped a six-fight winning streak for Burns, who emerged as one of the stars of the early pandemic era with a knockout of Demian Maia and dominant win over Woodley. Burns has a balanced attack, with eight submission wins, six knockouts and five decisions.

Dustin Poirier -125 vs. Conor McGregor +105, lightweights: Poirier (27-6) is on the best run of his professional career with a 7-1 record since 2017. Five of those wins came against men who have held UFC gold. The lone loss in that stretch came against Khabib Nurmagomedov, the most dominant champion in lightweight history. Poirier’s improvement — which he largely attributes to no longer being lost to the moment — was on display in January when he survived early pressure from McGregor to score the second-round knockout win. In fact, four of his seven most recent victories came via stoppage, bringing him to 20 stoppage wins in his 27 career victories.

McGregor (22-5) entered the UFC as an absolute killer, rattling off nine straight wins in the Octagon, culminating in a 13-second knockout of Jose Aldo to win the featherweight championship. Since that win, McGregor’s dominance has come to something of a halt even as he won the lightweight title from Eddie Alvarez. The former two-division champ has gone just 3-3 since 2016. Mixed in that period were multiple short-lived retirements and a trip to the boxing ring for a loss to Floyd Mayweather in a mega-fight. Still, McGregor remains a highly dangerous fighter who has stopped 20 of his opponents, only winning on the scorecards twice in his pro career.

Who wins Poirier vs. McGregor 3? And which fighter is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed top picks on UFC 264, all from the UFC insider who’s up nearly $9,500 on MMA picks in the past year, and find out.