UFC 261 predictions — Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal: Fight card, odds, expert picks, prelims

UFC 261 is inching closer to kick off. Nearly a year after the global shutdown because of the global pandemic and forced isolation of the public, fans return to the arena on Saturday night in Jacksonville, Florida with a trio of title fights to welcome them back UFC president Dana White has nothing but big plans for the rest of 2021 and it all starts at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena.

Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman is ready to step back inside the Octagon for his latest title defense when he faces off with Jorge Masvidal. Usman has defended his title three times since earning it in 2019, including a win over Masvidal last year and a TKO over Gilbert Burns in February. But Masvidal is no slouch as the Miami native rose to prominence in 2019 with three highlight-reel wins over Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz. 

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With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds from William Hill Sportsbook before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 261 fight card, odds

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer, co-host of “Morning Kombat”), Matthew Coca (producer), Jack Crosby (editor), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 261 picks, predictions Usman (c) vs. Masvidal Usman Usman Usman Usman Usman Zhang (c) vs. Namajunas Namajunas Zhang Namajunas Namajunas Zhang Shevchenko (c) vs. Andrade Shevchenko Shevchenko Shevchenko Shevchenko Shevchenko Hall vs. Weidman Hall Hall Hall Hall Weidman Crute vs. Smith Crute Crute Crute Smith Crute Records to date (2021) 12-7 13-6 12-7 12-7 11-8

Campbell on why Usman will win: The bad news for Masvidal is that Usman has only gotten better since their largely one-sided bout in 2020. A more confident and evolved striker fresh off a finish of Gilbert Burns, Usman has the motor and wrestling dominance to control the fight in a number of ways. The question for Masvidal, who took the first fight on short notice, is whether his meteoric rise to stardom and elite status in 2019 was a brief representation of the very best he could be when all cylinders were firing and something that, at 36, he’ll be able to still reactivate 18 months later. It’s difficult to imagine he will, particularly against a fighter in Usman who remains is a terrible style matchup for him regardless of the timing. 

Brookhouse on why Zhang will win: This is, of course, a very good fight and clearly the hardest of all three title fights to call. At her best, Namajunas is an extremely good fighter. The problem is, she’s rarely at her best and is one of the most unreliable fighters in the game when it comes to entering the fight from a good place mentally. Both women are good on the feet, with Zhang bringing tremendous pressure and Namajunas having very solid technique. Zhang’s ability to stuff takedowns and potentially execute takedowns of her own could be the determining factor in what could turn out to be an absolute war.

Campbell on why Namajunas will win: If there’s a single strawweight who has the physical tools to slow down the aggressive pressure of Zhang, it might be the former champion Namajunas. Thanks to her long frame, quick feet and technical brilliance with her hands, Namajunas presents a difficult contrast of styles for Zhang while also holding an advantage on the ground as a submission specialist. The real question for this fight surrounds which version of Namajunas will show up. When she’s on, her peaks have arguably been the highest this division has ever seen. But her valleys have been disastrous. Surviving a hellacious third round in her rematch with Jessica Andrade last year should help Namajunas to be ready for anything as a very live underdog capable preventing Zhang from having her way. 

Brookhouse on why Shevchenko will win: Andrade is a good fighter, even very good at her absolute best. Shevchenko is an elite fighter, however, and it’s hard to imagine a way that this fight plays out where Shevchenko loses on anything other than getting caught with a perfect knockout shot. Andrade does have power, so that isn’t off the table, but landing that shot while avoiding Shevchenko’s return fire is an awful big ask. Sometimes picking a fight comes down to simply acknowledging that one fighter is clearly superior and not much more thought is needed. Shevchenko has the length, technique and mentality to keep Andrade from getting inside and putting her power to work.

Wise on why Hall will win: Uriah Hall remains a bit of an enigma in this sport. He’s clearly got the game to be a top-level competitor in the middleweight division, but seems to come by short in big spots. This could be classified as one as he faces a former champion in Weidman, but this feels like two fighters heading in opposite directions. Hall has righted the ship since a losing streak in 2016 with four wins in his last five that includes three TKOs. Weidman, meanwhile, picked up his first win since 2017 last August by decision while holding a 2-5 record since 2015. It will be a poor reflection on Hall if he isn’t able to get the job done here.

Who will win Usman vs. Masvidal, and which fighter is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks for UFC 261, all from the ultimate insider who’s up almost $9,500 on MMA picks in the past year.