Two Labour wins, a Reform party surge and a dip into Rishession: never doubt Sunak’s strategy is going to plan

Confusing news from the byelections in Wellingborough and Kingswood, given that Downing Street has spent recent weeks explaining Britain is “pointing in the right direction” and has “turned the corner”. Someone should probably tell Britain, which is now officially in recession, and where Wellingborough just went Labour on the second biggest swing of its kind since the second world war. Kingswood likewise “turned the corner” away from the Conservatives to the tune of a 16.4% swing, also making the postwar top 10. Furthermore, it was an eye-catching night for Reform, the Tories’ Jill Stein. Or as Rishi Sunak put it this morning: “Our plan is working.” In which case, could there possibly be an argument for adopting George from Seinfeld’s iconic “do the opposite” strategy?

Entertainingly, the small hours saw a remarkable number of secretaries of state for cope out there in the wild. I clocked up several sightings of the phrase “hardly a ringing endorsement”, with special mention to the chairman of one Conservative association, who judged of Labour’s “pitiful” performance: “This is not a victory, but a calamitous defeat.” Regrettably, even accounting for this historic trouncing of Labour, the expectation in many quarters is that these results will prompt Tory plotters to fully activate their much-trailed “grid of shit” in an attempt to destabilise Sunak.

Let’s begin at a Kingswood leisure centre for that count, then, where it became evident that Jacob Rees-Mogg has graduated from being given wedgies in sports halls to giving himself wedgies in sports halls. Thanks to boundary changes, a full 45% of Kingswood will be absorbed by Rees-Mogg’s constituency at the forthcoming general election, leading one TV reporter to assume that was why he was present at the count. “No I’m actually here for GB News,” volunteered Rees-Mogg, “because I do a programme for GB News.” A most encouraging time to be alive, then, when a recently knighted Conservative MP almost scoffs at the suggestion that he should be there doing his first job, when it should be perfectly obvious that he was engaged in his second. Furthermore, Rees-Mogg would like people to know that these results show that Labour’s “prospects in a general election aren’t that good”, which is presumably the level of analysis GB News pay him for. It’s certainly not for his competence with an earpiece.

Moving on to Reform, are the party’s results good enough to eventually tempt Nigel Farage back to the driving seat, currently being kept warm for him by Richard Tice, the type of Just For Men box-picture you’d find in an attic? You wouldn’t bet against it, if not till later in the year. A freshly chestnutted Tice could be found at the count in Wellingborough, though sadly wasn’t asked about his Reform candidate spending the morning of the poll campaigning in Irthlingborough, which is not actually in the constituency he was seeking to win. But look – you live, you learn.

Helen Harrison (right) congratulates Labour’s Gen Kitchen after her byelection victory in Wellingborough. Photograph: Leon Neal/Getty Images

Sticking with learning experiences, we rightly heard a lot of questions asked this week about Labour’s selection process in Rochdale. But do please take a moment to salute the Conservative selection process in Wellingborough. The Wellingborough byelection was only occurring because its former MP Peter Bone was last year found by parliament’s independent expert panel to have bullied and hit one of his aides, as well as indecently exposing himself to him on an overseas trip. Bone denies all this. Yet the candidate selected to replace him was … none other than his current partner, one Helen Harrison. Alas, Peter is no longer with “Mrs Bone”, once such a familiar figure in his teeth-grindingly irksome parliamentary interjections. And, indeed, a familiar figure on his payroll. Ms Harrison had also been on his payroll, but this time round saw Peter out campaigning for her, reportedly knocking on doors still saying he had an 87% approval rating (because only 13% of the constituency signed his recall petition).

Within five minutes of the polls closing, Conservative party sources lost no time in characterising Bone as a “major drag” on its Wellingborough campaign, and his relationship with the replacement candidate as “completely toxic”. Then again, given the party had originally taken years to investigate serious bullying allegations against Bone, perhaps the meaningful time had already been lost long ago. Though in a different way to Rochdale, this particular episode also says nothing remotely flattering about British politics.

Anyway, Sunak says he’s still fighting for this title, against the backdrop of what has been instantly characterised “Rishi’s recession”, which you shouldn’t attempt to say if you’re drunk, or simply the “Rishsession”, which makes you sounds like you are even if you’re not. The latest in a series of replacement prime minister services – who failed to win an election even against Liz Truss – Sunak now has to promise to further knacker some public services to appease one or other of the so-called five families of the Conservative party. Possibly all of them; I’ve lost track. In fact, I might have lost track of the family quotient as there are now – I think – six families, since the launch of the Liz Truss-inspired PopCons. I guess the big question after last night is: precisely how many tax cut promises does it take to repel a grid of shit? Britain is in the lucky, lucky position of being about to find out.