Tuesday primaries in S.C., Nevada bring more tests for Trump

Donald Trump’s revenge tour lands Tuesday in South Carolina, where another round of Republican primaries will test his clout as he weighs another White House bid in 2024.

Trump’s influence is also on the line in Nevada. There, the former president and his allies spent the last week trying to buttress his endorsed Senate candidate, former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, against late momentum from GOP primary rival Sam Brown.

South Carolina’s polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. ET. Polls in Nevada are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., with most of the state on Pacific time. 

In South Carolina, Trump is aiming to unseat two House Republicans: Rep. Tom Rice in the 7th Congressional District and Rep. Nancy Mace in the 1st District. Rice was a surprise vote for Trump’s impeachment — one of 10 Republicans — after the deadly January 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol. Mace did not vote to impeach, but she did rebuke Trump for the frenzy he whipped his 2020 election-denying supporters into before they violently stormed the halls of Congress.

The former president is backing state Rep. Russell Fry against Rice and former state Rep. Katie Arrington against Mace. The incumbents have outspent their Trump-endorsed challengers. Independent polling has been scarce, with surveys last month by the conservative Trafalgar Group showing Fry with a sizable lead over Rice and Mace with a smaller one over Arrington.

“It’s nice to look at what other people do, but we’re very much our own state with our own mind,” Barbara Nielson, a Beaufort County GOP activist who supports Arrington, told NBC News last week. “I know, all the news media has tried to, you know, they always look at where is Trump, who has he endorsed, and they try to make it into that. … I think that will probably factor in. But in the long run, it comes down to who the candidate is, and if they can close the deal.”

Trump’s most explicit efforts to punish those who’ve crossed him have not paid off for him so far in 2022.

In Georgia last month, for example, Gov. Brian Kemp, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr — all of whom refused to rig the state’s 2020 election results in Trump’s favor — won their GOP primaries against challengers the former president had endorsed. And in Alabama’s Senate primary last month, Rep. Mo Brooks advanced to a runoff election even after Trump rescinded his endorsement, citing Brooks’ desire to move on from the 2020 election. Over the weekend, Trump endorsed Brooks’ Republican rival in the runoff, Katie Britt.

Trump has had better endorsement luck in wider open races that lack the revenge narrative, including the Ohio and Pennsylvania Senate primaries. He also has padded his endorsement record by backing many candidates who were well on their way to winning before he got involved.

In Nevada, Trump’s decision was more about loyalty. Laxalt, as a Trump campaign co-chair in 2020, was behind several unsuccessful legal challenges to the election results in a state Joe Biden narrowly won. Laxalt, like Trump, raised baseless doubts about election integrity, but official investigations found no widespread fraud.

But Laxalt has faced a robust fight from Brown, a retired Army captain whose straw poll victories and knack for collecting small donations has indicated momentum with grassroots voters. Laxalt has led in polls and has much of the national GOP establishment behind him, but some surveys have showed the race tightening. Last week, Trump held a telephone rally for Laxalt and his son Donald Trump Jr. traveled to Nevada for an in-person campaign event.

The winner of the Senate primary will likely face Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto in what’s expected to be one of the most competitive races that could determine control of the chamber this fall.

Trump Jr. also campaigned last week for Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, his father’s preferred candidate in Nevada’s crowded GOP primary for governor. Polls have shown Lombardo as the front-runner in a field that includes former Sen. Dean Heller and retired professional boxer Joey Gilbert, who has the state party’s endorsement. The winner of that primary is expected to face Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak in the general election.

Nevada’s GOP primary for secretary of state is also worth watching. Jim Marchant, a former state legislator who has promoted election conspiracy theories, is a leading candidate to become the state’s next chief elections officer. Marchant has said he would not have certified Biden’s win in the state if he were secretary of state in 2020. Trump has not endorsed in the race. A recent poll showed more than a third of likely primary voters undecided, with Marchant and businessman Jesse Haw the two leading candidates.

A few additional primaries on the ballot Tuesday include the South Carolina race for governor, in which the GOP incumbent Henry McMaster faces a primary challenge from political newcomer Harrison Musselwhite, a truck driver campaigning as “Trucker Bob.” Democrats will chose a nominee from a five-candidate field led by former U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham and state Sen. Mia McLeod.

Also in South Carolina, Spartanburg County Democratic Party chair Angela Geter, state Rep. Krystle Matthews and author Catherine Fleming Bruce are vying for the Democratic nomination to face U.S. Sen. Tim Scott this fall. Scott, who is unopposed in the Republican primary, is seen as a potential presidential candidate in 2024.

Voters in Maine will also cast primary ballots Tuesday, but the state’s marquee race this fall is already set. Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and Republican Paul LePage — a former two-term governor who left office highly unpopular — are running unopposed for their parties’ nominations.