Trump’s political and legal campaigns collide

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On the docket: hitting the campaign trial

After months of buildup, the packed trial schedule facing Donald Trump has finally smashed square into the election calendar. Less than 12 hours after the former president celebrated a decisive victory in the Iowa caucuses on Monday night, he was in New York City on Tuesday morning for his second civil defamation trial brought by E Jean Carroll.

The appearance marked the third time in a week that Trump opted to appear in court rather than spend more time on the campaign trail. Last week, he attended oral arguments in the Washington DC appeals court about his claim of presidential immunity, and then made a surprise appearance at the closing arguments in another New York trial centering on his company’s alleged business fraud.

Trump’s choice to attend these hearings is part of his broader political strategy: draw attention to his myriad cases in his continued bid to portray them for his GOP base as a coordinated attack by anti-Trump forces to keep him from returning to the White House.

After a brief detour to New Hampshire for a Tuesday night campaign rally, Trump was back in court on Wednesday – and testing the patience of federal judge Lewis Kaplan. Carroll testified that Trump’s continued lies about her had “shattered my reputation”, tearing up as she described the threats that have poured in since Trump defamed her on stage.

But during her testimony, Trump kept grumbling loudly to his lawyer – loud enough that Carroll’s attorneys heard him say it was a “witch hunt” and a “con job” and objected, saying the jury could hear. Kaplan warned Trump that if he didn’t pipe down, he’d have to leave.

“Mr Trump, I hope I don’t have to consider excluding you from the trial,” Kaplan said. “I understand you are probably very eager for me to do that.”

“I would love it, I would love it,” Trump responded.

From the courthouseE Jean Carroll departs federal court in New York City on the first day of her second defamation trial against Donald Trump. Photograph: Melissa Bender/NurPhoto/REX/Shutterstock

Victoria Bekiempis is covering the trial for the Guardian US, where she opted to watch from the press room instead of inside the courtroom. Why? “While being in the courtroom has some advantages for a reporter, a livestream in a media room has many others in certain cases. Kaplan does not permit electronics in his courtroom, even for the reporters who have credentials to have electronics in the courthouse. Watching the live stream allows reporters to get information to their editors in a timely way, whereas being in this particular courtroom is more like a bunker.”

Will this matter?

As Trump has already been ordered to pay Carroll $5m in a trial that concluded last May, this second trial will almost certainly cost Trump some real money. But the political cost may be slight: his poll numbers have only gone up since that multimillion-dollar verdict. The bigger questions of Trump’s overall strategy of attending these trials is whether voters will hold him accountable – and whether the rule of law will hold in front of Trump’s political posturing.

“In lashing out at prosecutors, judges and Democrats, Mr Trump wants to look strong – and make his opponents look weak. It is a battle of image, not of substance, to sustain a cult of personality,” the Guardian’s editorial board wrote on Tuesday.

And as Guardian US opinion columnist Sidney Blumenthal explains, Trump’s repeated attempts to delay his trial “give him space to depict himself as a martyr, taking the slings and arrows for his believers, who are his hope to rescue him”.

Calendar crunch

Here’s our best sense of how Trump’s trial dates and the political calendar are lining up, and how likely the current trial dates are to stick.

🟢 = likely 🟠 = iffy 🔴 = unlikely

🟢 16 January: E Jean Carroll defamation trial underway

Carroll has already won a $5m federal civil court judgment against Trump for sexual assault and defamation. This separate case, which began on Tuesday, covers remarks Trump made in 2019 accusing Carroll of fabricating her accusations.

23 January: New Hampshire primary

🟠 31 January: New York state civil fraud decision

Trump and his businesses are accused of illegally inflating the value of their assets; the trial is over and the judge’s decision is expected by the end of January.

🔴 4 March: Washington DC federal 6 January trial set to start

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The trial date set in this case is almost certain to move back pending a supreme court ruling on Trump’s claim of presidential immunity.

5 March: Super Tuesday primaries

🟠25 March: New York state hush money trial set to start

This case concerns faulty business records for payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. The judge in this case has said he was open to a delay if the Washington DC trial was already underway. If that trial is delayed, this one is more likely to proceed.

🔴 20 May: Florida federal classified documents case set to start

The Trump-appointed judge in this case about secret national security files found at Mar-a-Lago has indicated she is sympathetic to the Trump team’s claims that they will need additional time for the procedures necessary to review the classified documents in the case.

15-18 July: Republican National Convention

🔴 5 August: Georgia state Rico proposed trial start date

This sprawling case, in which Trump was indicted for election interference alongside 18 co-defendants, is perhaps the least likely to go before the courts prior to the election. No date has been set by the judge. The prosecution has suggested a 5 August start. Even if it starts then, the trial is expected to drag well past the November elections.

19-22 August: Democratic National Convention

5 November: Election Day

Legal briefsFulton County District Attorney Fani Willis Photograph: John Bazemore/AP

● A state judge in Maine delayed the state’s election officials decision to remove Trump from the primary ballot on Wednesday on grounds that the 14th amendment disqualifies him for participating in an “insurrection” against the US, to allow the US supreme court to rule on Trump’s appeal of a similar decision in Colorado; those oral arguments are scheduled for 8 February.

● Fulton county, Georgia district attorney Fani Willis has been subpoenaed in a divorce case involving of Nathan Wade, one of the attorneys she hired for the Rico prosecution, shortly after an attorney for one of Trump’s co-defendants filed a motion accusing her and Wade of an “improper, clandestine personal relationship during the pendency of this case”.

What’s next

Thursday: the Carroll trial will continue, with a verdict expected in days.

Any day: court watchers expect the Washington DC circuit court is also expected to rule imminently on whether presidential immunity protects Trump from criminal prosecution in his Washington DC 6 January trial. The judges hearing the appeal seemed deeply skeptical of Trump’s attorney’s theories of the law during oral arguments last week. Their decision will likely be appealed to the US supreme court.