Trey Lance trade rumors spur speculation about what Texans will do

The Houston Texans own the No. 2 and No. 12 picks in next week’s NFL draft, but recent trade rumors indicate they might not have to use a first-round pick to find their quarterback of the future.

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported Wednesday morning that the 49ers “have received inquiries from several teams looking into a potential trade” for quarterback Trey Lance, who San Francisco traded up to take with the No. 3 pick in 2021. The interest is reportedly the result of a belief that Brock Purdy will be the 49ers’ starting quarterback moving forward, though Rapoport added “no trade is imminent,” with other teams initiating talks and San Francisco still monitoring Purdy’s recovery from a torn UCL in his right elbow.

So how do the Texans fit into the Trey Lance trade rumors? Let’s take a look at why Houston is connected, as well as the potential benefits and downsides to making a deal.

Prior history

Lance has history with both Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who came to Houston from San Francisco this offseason and could have better insight into the quarterback’s value than anyone outside the 49ers.

There are obvious injury concerns with Lance. Health issues hindered him in both of his first two NFL seasons, suffering a season-ending ankle injury in the second week of 2022 after being named the team’s starting quarterback. There are also questions to be asked about why the 49ers seem to be willing to pivot to the last pick in last year’s draft, even if Purdy was more than adequate down the stretch amid a run to the NFC title game.

Lance’s NFL sample size is pretty small, completing 56 of 102 passes for 797 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions with 235 yards and one score on the ground, and it’s tough to read into his college production. He had a prolific redshirt freshman season at North Dakota State, completing more than two-thirds of his passes while throwing for 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions as he led the Bison to the FCS national title. But he only played one game in 2020 due to COVID-19 and never started against an FBS opponent.

Draft ramifications

Given that Lance hasn’t proven much since being drafted, it’s difficult to imagine the 49ers holding out for a first-round pick—especially one as low as the two the Texans own in 2023. Given Houston’s draft capital both this year and beyond, the organization has the assets available to put an appealing package together while still potentially holding onto their top three picks.

While the Texans have an array of holes to fill, an acquisition of Lance would free them up to use their first-rounders elsewhere in the event they don’t love the quarterback options at No. 2. In this scenario, Houston would go with one of two edge rushers—either Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. or Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson—with its first pick with added flexibility at No. 12 (and No. 33 if it’s not sent back in the Lance trade).

What type of trade should Texans consider?

Unless Ryans and Slowik have notably high hopes for Lance’s potential and confidence in his ability to avoid future injuries, the No. 33 pick should be off the table, as well as any current or future first-round selections. A second-rounder in 2024 wouldn’t be terrible, as Lance would give the Texans a starting quarterback for the present and more flexibility in this year’s draft. But the ideal situation would be sending one of two third-round picks and a collection of future mid-to-late round selections.