TRAIKOS: Matthews, McDavid or Makar — who will be this year’s MVP?
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It was during a conversation last month about whether he wanted to win the Hart Trophy, when Nathan MacKinnon expressed frustration that has no doubt affected several players over the years.
The MVP is a popularity contest.
“I used to really care about that for sure, but It’s just tough to put your happiness in the fact that Jim from Philly didn’t vote for you,” said the Colorado Avalanche forward, a three-time finalist who has twice been a runner-up but never won. “Like, what am I supposed to do? I can’t help it if people didn’t vote for me. It’s painful.”
Jim from Philly doesn’t actually have a vote. But Wayne Gretzky does.
Still, it does little to change the fact that the Hart — along with the player-voted Ted Lindsay Award — is painfully subjective.
It’s not based on stats, the way the Art Ross Trophy or the Rocket Richard Trophy is. Sometimes, the league MVP is the player who led the NHL in goals, as Auston Matthews did last year. Sometimes, it’s because you put up a ton of points, as Connor McDavid did when he won two years ago.
And sometimes you win because … well, because it makes a great story, like when Taylor Hall robbed MacKinnon of the award after unexpectedly getting the New Jersey Devils into the playoffs, despite Hall finishing outside the top-5 in scoring.
What will this year’s storyline be? Who knows, but according to BetOnline.ag, it will probably come down to how many goals Matthews scores, how many points McDavid ends up with and whatever magic Cale Makar produces from the backend — as well as whatever narrative comes up between now and the end of the season.
Here are the pre-season betting favourites:
Connor McDavid (13-to-5)
As one of the greatest to ever play the sport, it’s a bit of a shame that McDavid hasn’t won more than two Hart Trophies. Part of the blame goes to playing for a non-playoff team for the early part of his career. But now that the Oilers are considered a Stanley Cup favourite, don’t expect McDavid to get overlooked like he was when he led the league in scoring in 2017-18.
And after ranking in the top-10 in goals, don’t assume Matthews will have the edge again, especially if McDavid continues to be a bit more unselfish with the puck and scores 50.
Auston Matthews (4-to-1)
It all begins with a shot so deadly that Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy said all you can do is “just try to react and hope for the best.”
Matthews used that shot, which is usually a hard-to-read wrister, to edge McDavid for the Hart Trophy last year after becoming the first player to score 60 goals since Steven Stamkos in 2011-12. With how easily he beat goalies, don’t be surprised if the Leafs centre ends up with 70 goals — or becomes the first player in 30 years to score 50 in 50, something he already did (unofficially) within the season.
If so, another MVP could be his.
Cale Makar (15-to-2)
For an award that goes to the player who is the most valuable to his team, it’s curious that a defenceman has only won the Hart Trophy once in the past 50 years. After all, defenceman play a lot more than forwards. And, as Makar showed last year by winning the Norris Trophy along with the Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP, their impact cannot be overstated.
Makar, who had 28 goals and 86 points, was on the ice for 1,976 minutes and 26 seconds last season. That’s nearly 33 hours of ice time. And more than three hours more than played McDavid, who logged the second-most ice time of any forward.
Keep in mind, he’s only 23. In other words, he’s just scratching the surface in terms of his potential.
Nathan MacKinnon (14-to-1)
The three-time finalist is starting to look like the Joe Sakic of this era. In other words, he’s a great player, but who isn’t quite as great as McDavid or Matthews or maybe even Makar. That being said, a big reason why MacKinnon hasn’t won the Hart yet is because of health. He missed 17 games last season and another eight games each in 2020-21 and 2017-18.
Kiril Kaprizov (14-to-1)
After winning the Calder Trophy with 51 points in 2020-21, the Minnesota Wild forward took his game to even greater heights by scoring 47 goals and 108 points last season. What’s even more impressive is that Kaprizov doesn’t have a Leon Draisaitl or Mitch Marner-type of superstar to play with — though he sure made Kevin Fiala (85 points) look like one at times last year.
Leon Draisaitl (14 to-1)
Considered one of the best playmakers in the NHL, Draisaitl is also a two-time Rocket Richard Trophy runner-up who finished with 55 goals and 55 assists last season. And yet, he still gets overlooked at times. Unless McDavid misses a large chunk of time, like he did in 2019-20 when Draisaitl won the Hart, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where Draisaitl is MVP again.
mtraikos@postmedia.com
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