Tories panicked over double by-election threat in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire

Voters will head to the polls in two by-election tests for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as his party admitted it faces “difficult headwinds”.

Labour has also downplayed its chances of winning in the contests in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, which it described as “super safe” seats for the Conservatives.

Polls in both constituencies will open at 7am on Thursday, with the results likely to be known in the early hours of Friday.

Mr Sunak’s press secretary said the by-elections had come about after “difficult local circumstances”.

“Difficult local circumstances”

Former culture secretary Nadine Dorries quit her Mid Bedfordshire seat following a row after she was not given a peerage in former prime minister Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list, accusing Mr Sunak of abandoning “the fundamental principles of conservatism”.

The cause of the Tamworth poll is linked to one of the pivotal moments of Mr Johnson’s downfall.

Chris Pincher, who had represented the Staffordshire seat since 2010, stood down after being found to have drunkenly groped two men in an “egregious case of sexual misconduct” at London’s exclusive Carlton Club last year.

Mr Johnson’s handling of the case last year led to an onslaught of ministerial resignations that forced him out of Downing Street.

Thursday’s electoral battles will be a key test for Mr Sunak’s pitch that the Conservatives represent a vote for change, which he set out at the Tory Party conference after making a number of policy shifts.

Those have included axing the northern route of the HS2 rail project and delaying steps designed to help the UK achieve a net zero carbon economy by 2050.

Andrew Cooper

On Wednesday, the Tory leader declined to condemn an apparent suggestion by the party’s Tamworth candidate that out-of-work parents who cannot afford to feed their children should “f*** off”.

Mr Sunak was asked during Prime Minister’s Questions about a photo of a flowchart shared by Andrew Cooper on Facebook.

The diagram suggested that those who are out of work, pay for “TV Sky/BT/etc”, or “have a phone contract + £30” should “f*** off” rather than seek help.

In reply to the question, the Prime Minister said only that he was “proud of our record supporting people with the cost of living”, before outlining Government policies aimed at supporting people through the crisis.

Panicked

Sky News has obtained a memo to Greg Hands, the Conservative Party chairman, outlining concerns that the party’s vote share could drop to about 30 per cent in both elections.

It says in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, the latest internal polling suggests the party will get a vote share of 30 per cent. This is half the 60 per cent that Dorries won for the Tories in 2019, with Labour on 22 per cent and Lib Dems on 12 per cent.

The Staffordshire seat is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour, and a drop on this scale would mean the Tories losing the seat.

In 2019, Chris Pincher got 66 per cent of the vote, with Labour on 24 per cent.

Labour sources have previously said it was a “moonshot” to win both seats.

Related: Biden says Gaza hospital blast ‘done by the other team’ and not Israel