Too late for Newsom, other ‘white knight,’ to enter 2024 race

Billionaire Mark Cuban spiced up the political debate this week when he dropped out of Shark Tank and sold a majority share in the Dallas Mavericks basketball franchise.

Long considered a potential outside presidential candidate, the one-two punch raised speculation that he was turning his attention to politics. Betting sites even boosted his odds of entering the race from 250-1 to 8-1.

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But even though he has $6 billion to throw at the venture, it’s probably too late to make a move as either a Democrat or a Republican.

That’s because, unlike the old days when candidates could enter late, as Robert F. Kennedy did in March 1968, schedules, party rules, and filing deadlines are so complicated and airtight that his only alternative would be a write-in candidacy or third-party try, which he ruled out.

“Such a late entry would be very unlikely to find much success,” said Josh Putnam, who runs the site FrontloadingHQ, which charts the political schedule. “That window is rapidly closing and would most likely be a play for enough delegates in late contests to make a feeble play at the convention. That is pretty far-fetched at this point.”

Political consultant Rick Shaftan told Secrets that the deadline for any new candidate to get in the race is closing fast. On the Democratic side, he said, Christmas is a do-or-die deadline.

“At this point, filing will be closed for states with a total of 2,212 delegates. Remember that 2,271 are needed for nomination,” he said.

“December is a big month,” said Shaftan, who believes that Biden will bow to the polls and withdraw from reelection. He has been focused on Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) entering and believes that his debate Thursday night with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) was aimed at positioning the liberal in the Democratic race should Biden bow out or die before the convention or Election Day.

Shaftan, who has advised Democrats and Republicans, said Biden needs to act fast if he is to leave the race and allow Newsom or Vice President Kamala Harris to file to run in state primaries. “Biden cannot be the nominee, but if he stays in much longer, he creates a situation where Democratic primary voters might well be disenfranchised,” he said.

That would happen, Putnam said, because in the case of a candidate bowing out or dying, convention delegates or party leaders would pick the nominee.

Putnam, who has been dismissing speculation of a “white knight” alternative to Trump and Biden for months, explained how the system works: “Should a likely, presumptive, or expected nominee drop out or be unable to run before the convention, then the conventions would decide on who the nominee would be. The delegates already chosen in the selection process, presumably already for Biden or Trump, would make that decision. Who emerges from that is anyone’s guess.”

It’s a different story after the nominees are picked.

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“After a convention has already settled on a nominee is perhaps a simpler proposition should that nominee drop out or be unable to run. In that case, the membership of the national parties would make a selection. Under RNC rules, a new convention is to be reconvened, but that is unlikely to be a regathering of the thousands of delegates. It just isn’t feasible. So the task would most likely fall to the 168-member RNC to decide who would fill in as the new nominee. Things are clearer under DNC rules: The roughly 450 members of the national party would make the decision,” he said.

“Realistically, it is too late for someone not already in the race to enter. From an actuarial perspective, however, with two likely nominees who are over the age of 76, it is more likely than it has been for some of the replacement scenarios to potentially matter,” he added in sizing up the unusual election.