Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Blue Jays’ Gausman Stays Dominant vs Red Sox

Kevin Gausman has owned the Boston Red Sox during his inaugural season leading Toronto’s rotation, and we like the Blue Jays righty to continue his strong year in Beantown tonight. We’ve got two more pitchers highlighted in our MLB player prop picks.

It’s Thursday, so we’ve got a short slate of MLB games to choose from. In scouring the schedule for optimum value, we’ve selected a trio of pitchers to headline our MLB player props.

This includes a couple of aces going deep for their respective clubs while, on the opposite end of things, picking a right-hander who may be out of his depth.

Here are our favorite MLB player prop picks for Thursday, Aug. 25.

MLB props for August 25

Picks made on 8/25/2022 at 11:45 a.m. ET.Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best MLB prop bets

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Dunn like dinner

Justin Dunn’s return to the majors hasn’t been a rousing success. After being dealt to the Cincinnati Reds in March, the right-hander toiled in the minors with a 6.92 ERA in 26 innings over seven starts. The Reds promoted him to the big-league club in August anyway, likely due to the need for a warm body at the back end of the rotation. The results haven’t been promising.

While he did allow just one run on three hits over five innings against the Pirates in his last start, he failed to complete five innings in either of his first two outings with Cincinnati. And if Pittsburgh had any sort of offense to speak of, it would have managed to cash in a bit more because even though Dunn only allowed three hits, he issued four walks and had a FIP of 6.52. The lack of command has been his Achilles’ heel.

He has a career walk rate of 15.2% across 116 innings in parts of four seasons between the Reds and Seattle Mariners. What seems apparent is that he was never really accustomed to the starter’s role or workload. Dunn was often deployed as a reliever in college before the Mets turned him into a full-time starter in the minors. 

So while his outs recorded prop is set at a measly 14.5 this evening against the Philadelphia Phillies, his lack of command forces him to throw a ton of pitches to even get through a couple of innings. Philly has a much better offense than Pittsburgh and I don’t like his chances at escaping five innings.

Justin Dunn Prop: Under 14.5 outs recorded (+120 at BetMGM)

Covers MLB betting analysis

Jacob deGrom is clockwork

From one end of the spectrum to the other we go. Jacob deGrom has proven that his laundry list of injuries is not holding him back as he’s ramped up his output in each start. 

He’s compiled a 2.31 ERA over 23 1-3 innings across four starts and has maybe been a bit unlucky as his expected ERA is a mere 1.50 and FIP a microscopic 0.64. He’s issued just one walk and allowed only one home run and 11 total hits for a WHIP of 0.51. With the Mets hosting the Rockies, deGrom is primed to go deep in yet another start.

His strikeout prop of Over 9.5 (+105 at DraftKings) is tempting, but the Rockies don’t strike out that often, owning the 22nd-lowest strikeout rate vs. right-handers at 22.1%. Obviously, deGrom isn’t just any right-hander, but it’s enough of a wrinkle to at least look elsewhere. 

While Colorado hitters do tend to make contact vs. RHP, they’re not exactly doing anything with it. The Rockies own a wRC+ of 85 in these matchups (fifth worst in MLB) and an OPS of .705, which is likely inflated due to playing half their games at Coors Field. With this game coming at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, deGrom has an astronomical edge.

He pitched into the seventh vs. the Atlanta Braves in his last outing and looked mostly untouchable. The Rockies pose a much lesser threat and he should go as deep or further than he did last time.

Jacob deGrom Prop: Over 18.5 outs recorded (+100)

Gausman calls game

Toronto Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman takes the bump vs. the Boston Red Sox for the fifth time this season. He’s gotten familiar with this lineup and has handled it with relative ease. He’s 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.92 WHIP across 26 innings against the BoSox this season.

Gausman has legitimately been one of baseball’s best pitchers this season but has been snakebitten when it comes to win-loss record. That shouldn’t be an issue with Kutter Crawford on the opposing bump. The rookie right-hander has struggled this season, walking 8% of opponents while not missing many barrels (8.1% barrel rate) when contact is made. As a result, he has a 5.14 ERA (4.50 xERA) over 68 1-3 innings.

The Blue Jays’ offense ranks third in baseball with a 116 wRC+ and is tied for third in slugging with the Yankees at .430. And despite being heavily right-handed, the Blue Jays haven’t struggled in same-handedness matchups as their wRC+ is actually a touch higher in these matchups at 117 — and their OPS vs. RHP of .757 trails only the Dodgers.

Gausman doesn’t even need to have one of his best outings to record the win tonight, but he hasn’t labored vs. Boston this season. He rarely issues walks and is one of the most elite pitchers to induce swings and misses with a whiff rate ranking in the 77th percentile and a chase rate in the 99th. 

With Toronto heavily favored to win on the moneyline as short as -188 (65.28% implied probability), I’m taking the plus money on Gausman to be the one to walk away with the decision based on the edge the Blue Jays offense has over Crawford and Boston’s bullpen.

Kevin Gausman Prop: To record a win (+105 at DraftKings)

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