Tim Scott Is Sure to Rise—and Surer to Fade

Scott, in his three-minute video announcing his first steps in the presidential race, stressed the racial component of his candidacy. The South Carolina senator spoke at Charleston Harbor and pointed out that Fort Sumter, where the Civil War began, loomed in the background. Scott claimed that Democrats “weaponize race to divide us.” But then he explained, in the key passage in the video, “When I fought back against their liberal agenda, they called me a prop, a token, because I disrupt their narrative. I threaten their control.”

The subtext is close to the surface. Despite the Republican record of rolling back voting rights protections, opposing affirmative action, and slashing programs for the impoverished, despite a recent Republican president who trafficked in code words and hate-mongering, it is the Democrats who “weaponize race.” And the virtue in embracing Scott’s candidacy is that he alone among the 2024 Republicans upends these Democratic talking points. Scott speaks to the prejudice-free purity of Republican hearts (or so they believe) when he says to camera, “I know America is a land of opportunity—not oppression.”

Tim Scott may never achieve liftoff in the 2024 presidential race. But in a long campaign season, some candidates have a moment when they look as if they are real contenders for the nomination. That moment may be fleeting, a week or two, but it can happen. And the bet here is that Scott, especially after he visually stands out on a monochromatic Republican debate stage, will have one of those moments in 2023. Maybe the catalyst would be most GOP debate viewers hearing for the first time Scott’s signature line that it is the Democrats who “weaponize race.” Maybe it would be an ad campaign (paid for out of Scott’s $22 million) that hits the right chord with evangelicals in Iowa. All it would require is a jump in the polls (like Carson’s in 2015), and Tim Scott would be near center of the GOP conversation. And then, given the Republican Party’s true history on race, the bubble would almost certainly burst before any voter makes a binding choice for president in a caucus or primary.