Three to See, US Open Day 6: Alcaraz vs. Brooksby; Kvitova vs. Muguruza; Rublev vs. Shapovalov

US Open

Two of Saturday’s aforementioned contests involve lefties. Will either punch their ticket to the second week of the New York major?

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jenson Brooksby

The Spaniard is the clear favorite. He’s ranked No. 4, Brooksby is No. 43. Technically and athletically, Alcaraz is far superior. If his ground strokes are firing and his drop shot is on point, Brooksby wouldn’t seem to have any chance at all.

And this match may unfold that way. Earlier this month in Cincinnati, Tommy Paul seemed to lay down a template for beating Brooksby, when he took immediate initiative and never gave him a chance to get the match bogged down in the long rallies that he loves so much. If Paul can do that, Alcaraz obviously can, too.

But there’s also a chance that this match goes in a different direction. Brooksby specializes in making life complicated for superior athletes like Alcaraz. He’ll make Alcaraz hit balls. He’ll use a drop shot of his own. He’ll bother him with his vocal intensity. He’ll try to goad him into going for too much, which is something that Alcaraz is doing more of lately than he was earlier in the season. In some ways, Brooksby is the ideal opponent for Alcaraz; but the opposite may be true as well. Winner: Alcaraz

Petra Kvitova vs. Garbiñe Muguruza

This one feels like a throwback, to those 2010s days when these two towering power hitters were winning major titles—each has two—and threatening to dominate the tour with their imposing styles. Now Muguruza is 28 and Kvitova is 32 and it has been five years since either won a Slam. But they’re both still game to compete, and each has her moments: Muguruza won the WTA’s tour finals last November, while Kvitova just made the final of the Masters 1000 in Cincinnati.

As far as their head to head goes, Kvitova has been surprisingly dominant. She’s 5-1, and she won their only meeting at the Open, in 2017, in a match that featured an excellent first set that went to a tiebreaker. Muguruza is the WTA’s version of Shapovalov this season: She’s lost her confidence for stretches, but she has found a bit of it again in her two matches at the Open. Will it be enough to overcome Kvitova, who is one of the few players who can out-hit Muruguza? I’m going to say no. Winner: Kvitova

Andrey Rublev vs. Denis Shapovalov

These two Next Gen stalwarts have stopped climbing the rankings charts recently. Rublev, 24, is 38-14 on the year, with three titles, but he has yet to make the next career move and reach a Grand Slam semifinal. He can pound the ball with anyone, but he hasn’t learned to do a whole lot more than that. Shapovalov has had a more perplexing season. He beat Rafael Nadal on clay in Rome, a signature achievement for any player; then he lost eight of his next nine matches and mostly looked lost on the court. Shapo seems to have stabilized in Cincinnati, where he won two matches, and New York, where he has won two more.

Now the Russian and the Canadian have a chance to make the second week of a major. They’re 2-2 against each other, and haven’t played since 2020. You pretty much know what you’re getting from Rublev, and that it will be solid. Shapovalov at his swashbuckling best may have the higher ceiling, but he also has the lower floor, as he has shown more than once this summer. It will be interesting to see how much confidence he has gained after a few wins. Winner: Rublev