Three reasons the Bucks will win the 2023-24 NBA championship – and three reasons they won’t

The Milwaukee Bucks begin the 2023-24 season Thursday night against the Philadelphia 76ers with more expectation than perhaps any season since opening their title defense in 2021. But even then, they weren’t the resounding favorite to go back-to-back after a very short offseason.

Now, with Damian Lillard on the team, a trip at least to the Eastern Conference Finals feels fait accompli – but the Bucks have only advanced out of the second round two times since becoming an annual playoff team in 2016-17.

The excitement is as real as the expectation, though, and for good reason.

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Giannis Antetokounmpo holds his NBA Finals MVP trophy and Khris Middleton holds the championship trophy after the Bucks won the 2021 title at Fiserv Forum.

THREE REASONS THE MILWAUKEE BUCKS WILL WIN THE 2023-24 NBA TITLEGiannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are dominant

Antetokounmpo and Lillard are not going to play all 30-plus minutes per game together during the regular season (and even in the playoffs), and they’re not going just dominate possessions with two-man showcases each time down the floor. But if this combination works the way many feel it should, it could be enough to carry the Bucks through any rough waters and to another parade.

Antetokounmpo is healthy for the first time since the start of the 2020 playoffs and he’s had the most rest in an offseason in years. He was going to be a scoring champion and MVP-candidate before Lillard got to the team, and while those individual heights may not be reached now the 7-footer is poised for one of his most dominant seasons ever.

Lillard is more than a full year removed from abdominal surgery and coming off a career-best scoring year (32.2 points per game) and overall shooting year (46.3%). The word you’ll hear a lot of with these two is “spacing,” but for stars who have never had it since they ascended to superstardom, being able to operate without two, three or four bodies will be something to watch. And when it’s “get a bucket” time, late in playoff games, the Bucks now can get one as soon as the ball passes half-court.

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Oh yeah, that guy.

It only feels as though Middleton has been hurt for a long time, and he’s hoping that last year was a wash after wrist surgery rehab and then a subsequent knee injury limited him to 33 regular-season games. But aside from a massive hamstring tear in 2016-17, he’s been one of the most durable players the Bucks have had since 2013-14 and he insists he’s fully healthy and pain-free for the first time in a long time.

And the last time we saw him, he was putting 23-6-6 on the Miami Heat in the playoffs even though he couldn’t move laterally. He was an all-star in 2021-22, his last full regular season, and was a snub in 2020-21.

The true third option now offensively, he still may get the 14-15 shots per game he’s used to – but now he’s not going to have to work as hard. He won’t be double-teamed when on the court with Antetokounmpo and Lillard, and leaving him wide open from 15-18 feet (or even behind the three-point line) seems like a bad idea. But teams will have to make that choice and Middleton has proven he will make them regret it.

Will the Bucks have three all-stars? The odds say no. But if they hoist another trophy people will look back and wonder just how Middleton wasn’t, just as in 2020-21.

They find their late-game defense

This sounds ominous, but it seems likely the Bucks won’t be as effective defensively as they have been when Brook Lopez has played full seasons the last five years. When you’re No. 1 consistently there’s nowhere really else to go. And Jrue Holiday is in Boston. Also, when you’re totally changing a coaching staff and scheme, it’s not fair to assume even a willing group such as this will see it come together immediately.

The key is that the Bucks find their identity on defense, find some coverages they can go to in late game situations that work, and be sharp enough with their communication that they can seamlessly transition from one style to another possession by possession.

Defense wasn’t really the problem for the Bucks the last two postseasons; they just couldn’t score. Now, in high intensity playoff games, with a tighter rotation and more minutes on the legs, they’ll need to be able to maintain the defensive energy Adrian Griffin wants and string stops together while limiting an opponent’s top player from stealing a game or two. If they can do this, they will be better suited to handle whatever lineups they face along the way to a title.

Giannis Antetokounmpo hangs his head at center court after the Bucks were eliminated from the 2023 NBA playoffs by the Miami Heat.

THREE REASONS THE MILWAUKEE BUCKS WON’T WIN THE NBA TITLE IN 2023-24

Milwaukee is one of five franchises to win a title over the last five years, the longest stretch of parity the NBA has seen in its champions since the merger in 1976. And as Antetokounmpo said after signing his extension, “When I wake up, I wake up excited to go to work because I know we have a chance and that’s all you can ask for it. It’s not a guaranteed. But I know having good players on your team you have a chance to win a championship. However the ball bounce and have a little bit of luck and you stay healthy you might win it. We gotta shoot, shoot the heck out of the ball again and play defense, but you wake up and come to work excited that you might be the last team standing.”

And the Bucks haven’t had much luck the last two playoffs. But beyond that, here are three reasons why they won’t win the title:

History says so

OK, this is a bit of a copout, but in the most recent era of star player movement, winning a championship in the first year is few and far between. And people generally consider Golden State winning in 2017 after signing Kevin Durant and the Los Angeles Lakers winning the the 2020 title in the bubble after trading for Anthony Davis as outliers due to unique circumstances.

The “Heatles” of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh reached the finals in 2011 and lost. Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden never got out of the second round in Brooklyn. Joel Embiid and Harden couldn’t get out of the second round in Philadelphia. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George haven’t reached an NBA Final for the Los Angeles Clippers.

First-year coaches have won titles recently, like Steve Kerr in Golden State (2015), Ty Lue in Cleveland (2016) and Nick Nurse in Toronto (2019). Frank Vogel was a veteran head coach but won in his first year in Los Angeles (2020). But the combination of it all – new coach, new schemes, new star players – might result in a fun and exciting season but not coalesce in time to hoist the Larry O’Brien.

The new defense never jells

The players have bought into the constant movement on defense through training camp and the preseason, enjoying the different looks and adjustments Griffin and assistant Patrick Mutombo are calling. They like the “punch first” mentality of aggressiveness, of forcing turnovers, deflections, creating chaos for the offense. And that style of defense can win a lot of games in the NBA. We’ve seen it be effective in winning a championship.

But this is the first year of it all, and the average age of the current top eight players for the Bucks once the playoffs begin will be 31.3 years old. After a full season, and as the minutes and intensity of those minutes climb in each round of the playoffs, will they have enough left to keep that style up and make the key stops necessary in crunch time?

They fall victim to the once-in-a-lifetime performance. Again.

This isn’t bad luck, per se. Other playoff teams have great players, too. But since becoming a legitimate title threat in the 2018-19 season, the Bucks have seen opponents have career-defining moment, games and series against them. Leonard in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals. Goran Dragić in the 2020 bubble. Grant Williams in 2022. Jimmy Butler in 2023.

Part of the defensive emphasis this season is to focus in on preventing such a thing from happening, but sometimes it doesn’t matter what you try. It’s the unknowable of a very talented opponent doing something incredible despite the best efforts. While this also sounds like a catch-all improbability, it seems to have happened to the Bucks quite often over the last half decade when they get knocked out of the playoffs.

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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Why the Bucks will win the 2023-24 NBA championship or why they won’t