These 2 charts show that investors are more scared of Jerome Powell than they are of Vladimir Putin
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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock ExchangeSpencer Platt/Getty Images
Stocks plummeted Tuesday – as Vladimir Putin promised to escalate Russia’s war in Ukraine.
But analysis of gold prices and yields on 10-year Treasury notes suggests the two events are totally unconnected.
Check out these two charts that show what investors are worried about right now.
US stocks just had their worst day of 2023.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly 700 points, erasing all of its gains for the year, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both suffered their biggest losses since December 15.
Two ongoing sagas have rattled markets over the past year: the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
These charts show which one of those is scaring investors right now:
Treasury yields spike
Tuesday’s sell-off came after January figures for the S&P Global Purchasing Manufacturers’ Index showed the US business activity expanding for the first time in eight months.
That sounds like good news for stocks but in the current context, it’s not – because a strong economy gives the Fed more scope to hold interest rates higher for longer without cratering growth.
When the cost of borrowing is higher, stocks struggle because their future cash flows take a hit, chipping away at their overall valuations.
Two Fed policymakers said last week that the central bank hadn’t ruled out a 50 basis point hike at its March meeting – a return to the aggressive monetary policy that defined last year as it sought to crush inflation.
That echoed the signaling of chair Jerome Powell, who’s repeatedly warned that the cost of borrowing will have to stay higher for longer to bring the rate of price rises down to the central bank’s 2% target.
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes, which have spiked by over 50 basis points to 3.93% in February, capture investors’ anxiety. Fixed income offers lower relative returns if traders expect interest rates to stay high, so bond prices fall and yields rise.
“Investors had three days over the extended weekend to let the prospect of further rate hikes sink in,” AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said Wednesday. “The reaction was to start taking some money off the table as markets reopened.”
Story continues
Gold prices slump
Vladimir Putin also had his best go at causing chaos Tuesday.
The Russian president made a two-hour public address where he threatened once again to escalate the war in Ukraine and claimed that Russia’s economy had held up during the war despite economic forecasters’ prediction it would collapse.
Investors merely shrugged their shoulders.
In times of geopolitical crisis, they tend to flock to gold – because the precious metal is seen as a “safe haven” that retains its value during times of high volatility.
But gold’s price has actually fallen this year, slipping 4.6% to hover just over $1,850 at last check.
So investors are selling stocks and bonds right now – but they’re not buying gold.
That suggests that they’re more scared of Jerome Powell than they are of Vladimir Putin.
Read the original article on Business Insider