The Warriors’ Klay Thompson Problem Is Getting Worse

Klay Thompson and Chris PaulNoah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images

Stephen Curry has missed the Golden State Warriors’ past two games with a knee injury. Draymond Green just started a five-game suspension for putting Rudy Gobert in a chokehold. In the past, this would feel like an opportunity for Klay Thompson to carry the offense.

But this season (and for much of last season), the version of Klay capable of shooting Golden State through some rough patches (like this current five-game losing streak) has been missing.

In Thursday’s 19-point loss to the up-and-coming Oklahoma City Thunder, Thompson hit his first shot of the game, a 26-foot three from the left wing in front of a half-hearted contest from Josh Giddey. He then went 0-of-9 the rest of the game. He finished with five points and is now averaging 13.8 while shooting 40.1 percent from the field and 32.9 percent from deep.

His first miss on Thursday was emblematic of a problem he may not be able to fix.

Toward the end of the first quarter, Klay drove right on Luguentz Dort, never really got separation, telegraphed his pull-up jumper to a degree Shai Gilgeous-Alexander felt comfortable leaving Gary Payton II and got blocked. OKC broke the other direction and ended the transition opportunity with an alley-oop to SGA.

Even with his 6’6″ frame, 6’9″ wingspan and high release, Thompson just doesn’t look capable of creating the space he once could for his jumpers.

Whether it’s a quick pull-up like the one above (where he never really loses Dort), a step-back or something off an escape dribble and after a head fake, the extra tenths of a second that every move seems to take is giving younger, more athletic defenders time to recover.

Against OKC, he couldn’t shake Dort, Kenrich Williams or Cason Wallace.

Yes, in games when Curry is available, space should be easier to come by. On the SGA block, he certainly wouldn’t be as willing to ditch his assignment if it was Curry in that corner instead of GPII. But even when both Splash Brothers are on the floor, Thompson is shooting a below-average 35.4 percent from three.

Of course, there’s still time for some of these numbers to normalize. He made just 33.0 percent of his threes over his first 12 games last season before winding up at 41.2. His 2023-24 percentages on open (closest defender is four to six feet away) and wide-open (closest defender is six-plus feet away) threes isn’t going to stay at 26.1.

What may be less likely to improve over the course of a demanding, 82-game season is what that slight decline in athleticism is doing to Thompson’s defense.

This shouldn’t be read as surprising or a slight to Klay. He’s a legend, but he’s also a soon-to-be-34-year-old wing with a torn ACL and ruptured Achilles in his past. The combination of size and lateral quickness that made him a perimeter defensive weapon for most of the Warriors’ dynasty is now missing the second half of that equation.

He can’t stay in front of opposing guards and wings the way he used to. And his balance doesn’t seem to be quite what it was against bigger players anymore.

Scenes like this one, where Darius Garland has Klay scrambling, are more common.

Ditto for this shoulder bump from Jaden McDaniels that knocks Thompson from the middle of the paint to the rim.

And these plays are having a real impact on the numbers of both Thompson and the Warriors. Klay’s working on a career-low steal rate, and Golden State is giving up a whopping 10.1 more points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor.

Meanwhile, this team does have some other options on the wing who might be able to help turn things around.

Thompson and Andrew Wiggins (who’s been almost impossibly bad to start this campaign) have combined for minus-1.9 wins over replacement player (value over replacement player times 2.7). Moses Moody and GPII have combined for plus-1.1. Both look more mobile on defense. And both, at least to this point in the season, are shooting better from three than Klay and Wiggins (who’s made just 13.5 percent of his triples).

Even rookie Brandin Podziemski might be in line for a bigger role. Prior to the start of Golden State’s losing streak, a current NBA assistant coach told Bleacher Report that Podziemski was going to force his way onto the floor for the Warriors, and he’s suddenly played 64 minutes in his past two games.

Of course, that uptick has a lot to do with Curry’s injury and Green’s suspension. But even when those two are back, head coach Steve Kerr is going to have to consider keeping him in the rotation (and upping minutes for Moody and Payton).

Again, none of this should be shocking. Time comes for every professional athlete.

Thompson will be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. He’s one of the greatest shooters of all time. And at his peak, he was an All-Defense caliber wing on the other end, too.

But if the Warriors are going to compete for another title, they’ll have to realize he’s not that player anymore.

The ramifications of that realization might be huge. Thompson is on an expiring contract and has yet to sign an extension. The likelihood of him leaving Golden State still feels low, but a reduced role wouldn’t help his camp negotiate for the kind of money Klay probably wants or feels he deserves.

Crossroads like this are tough for organizations, players and fans who’ve grown to love a player who’s been on one team for over a decade.

For the Warriors, it’s probably time to take the turn that leads to fewer opportunities for Klay.