The stats that show how Collingwood can win their 16th flag

Collingwood coach Craig McRae after his side won through to the grand final.Credit: Getty Images

The Lions say that’s no issue, but they are riding a ghost train into the MCG, whereas Collingwood, with 26 wins from 32 matches at the MCG under Craig McRae, enter their version of Disneyland.

This masthead spoke to four assistant coaches at other clubs, who wanted to remain anonymous because they weren’t authorised to speak publicly, to determine the likely key factors in the result.

Who will throw the first punch?

Last Friday night with just three minutes remaining in the second quarter in their preliminary final against GWS, the Magpies had kicked just two goals. They had played safe football.

Collingwood defender Darcy Moore switched the ball via Nathan Murphy across the goal to Jeremy Howe, who marked under pressure. Howe immediately looked to half-back and kicked to Jordan De Goey, who was in between two opponents. He swung immediately and kicked wider to Steele Sidebottom, and Collingwood found a road to goal. The kick to De Goey was risky, but it was necessary as the ball suddenly began to flow. The kick was a portent to the third quarter, when the match was won.

In the grand final Collingwood must put speed on the game from the first moment with daring kicks or handballs that appear dangerous but tempt the opposition to come forward so, once won, space is created between the ball carrier and the goals.

It’s akin to a kayaker running whitewater. Pick the line and do not hesitate even when the initial move is the hardest. That takes a strong mind.

That is why playing Nick Daicos behind the ball appears the best option for Collingwood as he could find gaps in rugged bush, slicing through defences with his kicking. Nothing seems to fluster him.

If the Pies don’t take risks, the Lions will eat them up as they are superb at changing angles and taking uncontested marks, conserving energy while their opponents charge around like sheepdogs to man the mark.

The Lions have scored more than 100 points in 11 of their 25 matches and the two biggest totals Collingwood have conceded this season have been to Brisbane. They can kick a winning score. Can Collingwood?

Break the first line of defence

Both teams are good defensively, but they also give the opposition a chance.

The Brisbane Lions’ forwards stay at home, while the Magpie defenders like to press up to outnumber their opposition across half-back.

As soon as one of Collingwood’s defenders bites and goes forward to defend, they will be outnumbered behind the ball. The onus then moves to Sidebottom or Josh Daicos – as wingers – to run back to help defend or choose to join the battle for the ball in an attempt to score.

One quarter of Collingwood’s goals come from chains starting at half-back. That is a huge percentage from the same area of the ground. It’s where the flag will be won, or lost.

If the Lions break that first line of defence they will score. Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey and Lincoln McCarthy are clever and fast forwards who hurt opponents, while Cam Rayner is now fit enough to get up and down the ground.

If Collingwood win those battles they will be able to go forward and, at least, lock the ball in, tiring the Lions defence and potentially dismantling their forward structure as they break ranks to help.

When the ball bobbles around Collingwood’s defensive zone, count from 10 to one as the teams fight for the ball then wait for the rocket to launch in one direction or the other.

Pressure kills ball movement

Collingwood are one of the best teams at applying pressure and there is no doubt it will be high. It’s why it’s so hard to move the ball from one end of the ground to the other in finals. Forwards who, on other occasions, might be sloppy, switch on in finals and make it hard for their opposition to move the ball.

The last time these two teams played, Collingwood did not defend the corridor as well as they will on Saturday, disrupting kicking or handballing chains and limiting the Lions inside-50s. That’s important because although the Magpies’ team defence is good, if the opposition works the ball into the forward half in space they can slice through – Collingwood look to guard dangerous space and rely on their closing speed to get across the help teammates in the air.

Their pressure relies on the ball pinging around in chaotic fashion, allowing them to tackle or intercept a possession.

The Lions have improved their ability to manage pressure though. They no longer just go down the line if the run and carry from behind is impeded. They are more comfortable in chipping the ball down the ground and walking in behind it to defend, with both Conor McKenna and Keidean Coleman excellent by foot.

It means Collingwood must stop their uncontested marks and then bring the heat.

The contest kings

If Collingwood win the contest, history suggests they will be impossible to beat. But the Lions have always been good in this area under Chris Fagan’s coaching.

De Goey was outstanding in the preliminary final alongside Jack Crisp, with both benefiting from entering a game with all the focus on Nick Daicos. De Goey won five centre clearances and turned the game.

Lachie Neale, who secured his second Brownlow Medal on Monday night, will be under pressure to perform at the coalface, but he has great support in Hugh McCluggage and particularly Josh Dunkley, who is not only an excellent two-way midfielder but can cool De Goey if he catches fire.

Where the Lions have improved is their running power away from the contest. Darcy Wilmot, McKenna, Dayne Zorko and Bailey are all runners, whereas the Magpies have more cunning, creative types such as Josh Daicos and Scott Pendlebury, who rely on footy smarts.

Defend a lead as though your life depends on it

There has never been a team as successful in tight finishes as Collingwood under Craig McRae. They can either play to win or defend to win.

In the preliminary final, with one minute and six seconds remaining and a one point lead to defend, the Magpies created four stoppages and kept the ball within the centre square. They did it by falling on the ball and pretending they were trying to get it moving, knowing the umpires would not pay a free kick from a ball gathered at stoppage with no prior opportunity. For good measure a teammate fell next to them to keep the ball hidden.

If they had been trailing, Mason Cox would have been thumping the ball into space for runners to find it.

The Lions learned in their loss to Melbourne in round 18 that the spare does not have to be in defence until there is about two minutes remaining. They are a better team at attacking to regain the lead than they are at holding on to a lead. On too many occasions they put the ball into space in those situations, courting disaster.

From father-sons to foreign shores: The key match-ups

Joe Daniher v Darcy Moore

Brisbane are adamant Daniher would have taken little notice of the criticism he copped after his poor round three performance, but he has been a different player since.

Joe Daniher has had an outstanding 2023 campaign for the Lions.Credit: Getty Images

He still does the inexplicable on occasion, but his demeanour has been more professional and focused, and he has been more consistent. Daniher has kicked 58 goals while also pinch hitting in the ruck in a season that has been underplayed.

At some stage, he will battle All-Australian full-back Moore, who seems to have football in perspective but leads a team defence with desperation and authority.

If the Lions go down the line, Moore will destroy them. But if the ball whizzes around, he might have his work cut out against the high-flying, agile and dangerous Daniher.

Both their dads played in grand finals, but have stood back this week so their sons have the limelight.

Mason Cox looms large in more ways than one for the Magpies in Saturday’s grand final.Credit: Getty Images

Harris Andrews v Mason Cox

Once upon a time, having a Queenslander line up on an American in a grand final would have been unusual. Not any more.

Of course, Cox might try to separate himself from Andrews and let a smaller player entangle the intercept marker. But if the big American can get a run at the ball as he did late in the preliminary final, no one will be able to out-mark him.

At some stage when these two men fly it will seem as though eight legs, 14 arms, a pair of glasses and a long nose are entangled, but the outcome of the encounter will be deadly serious.

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